Movin' to the Pen; Are Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine Better Off In Relief?
Upon reading Sean Smith's new post about the effect moving to the pen has on starting pitchers (h/t RJ), I decided to see how three of the most likely candidates to join the Rays pen would look as relievers. With the impending arrival of at least David Price (and maybe Wade Davis) and the hopeful goodbye to Troy Percival, there will be some open spots in the Rays bullpen. I would assume that to make room in the rotation one of Andy Sonnanstine or Jeff Niemann would make the move to the pen, and the possibility that Mitch Talbot could come up to jettison one of the underperforming members of the bullpen.
Follow the link to see how each of the three's stats from 2007-2009 as starters translate to their possible move to the pen.
Let's first start with the factors Smith finds on each pitcher's relevant statistics:
BB .99
SO 1.15
HR .87
HBIP .95
So a SP that moves to the bullpen can expect his BBs to decrease by 1%, his SOs increase by 15%, etc.
With this in mind, let's take a look at how each of the three's numbers change with a move to the bullpen.
|
Niemann |
|||||||||||||
|
Raw |
IP |
HR |
BB |
IBB |
HBP |
K |
aBB |
aIBB |
aHBP |
aK |
FIP |
aFIP |
Diff |
|
2007 (AAA) |
131 |
13 |
46 |
1 |
9 |
123 |
45.54 |
1 |
8.55 |
141.45 |
3.85 |
3.38 |
0.47 |
|
2008 (AAA) |
133 |
15 |
50 |
0 |
6 |
128 |
49.5 |
0 |
5.7 |
147.2 |
4.00 |
3.51 |
0.50 |
|
2008 (MLB) |
16 |
3 |
8 |
0 |
5 |
14 |
7.92 |
0 |
4.75 |
16.1 |
6.33 |
5.68 |
0.64 |
|
2009 (MLB) |
16.6 |
3 |
7 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
6.93 |
0 |
0.95 |
10.35 |
5.91 |
5.42 |
0.49 |
|
296.6 |
34 |
111 |
1 |
21 |
274 |
109.89 |
1 |
19.95 |
315.1 |
4.17 |
3.67 |
0.49 |
|
|
Sonnanstine |
|||||||||||||
|
Raw |
IP |
HR |
BB |
IBB |
HBP |
K |
aBB |
aIBB |
aHBP |
aK |
FIP |
aFIP |
|
|
2007 (AAA) |
71 |
8 |
13 |
0 |
2 |
66 |
12.87 |
0 |
1.9 |
75.9 |
3.44 |
2.96 |
0.48 |
|
2007 (MLB) |
130.6 |
18 |
26 |
2 |
5 |
97 |
25.74 |
2 |
4.75 |
111.55 |
4.17 |
3.70 |
0.47 |
|
2008 (MLB) |
193.3 |
21 |
37 |
2 |
5 |
124 |
36.63 |
2 |
4.75 |
142.6 |
3.95 |
3.56 |
0.39 |
|
2009 (MLB) |
15.6 |
1 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
12 |
5.94 |
1 |
0.95 |
13.8 |
3.65 |
3.29 |
0.36 |
|
410.5 |
48 |
82 |
5 |
13 |
299 |
81.18 |
5 |
12.35 |
343.85 |
3.92 |
3.49 |
0.43 |
|
|
Talbot |
|||||||||||||
|
Raw |
IP |
HR |
BB |
IBB |
HBP |
K |
aBB |
aIBB |
aHBP |
aK |
FIP |
aFIP |
|
|
2007 (AAA) |
161 |
13 |
59 |
0 |
10 |
124 |
58.41 |
0 |
9.5 |
142.6 |
4.00 |
3.61 |
0.39 |
|
2008 (AAA) |
161 |
9 |
35 |
0 |
11 |
141 |
34.65 |
0 |
10.45 |
162.15 |
3.03 |
2.66 |
0.37 |
|
2008 (MLB) |
9.6 |
3 |
11 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
10.89 |
0 |
0.95 |
5.75 |
9.97 |
9.24 |
0.73 |
|
2009 (AAA) |
15 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
3.96 |
0 |
0 |
11.5 |
2.67 |
2.46 |
0.21 |
|
346.6 |
25 |
109 |
0 |
22 |
280 |
107.91 |
0 |
20.9 |
322 |
3.66 |
3.27 |
0.38 |
|
Since some of those are AAA innings, I decided to use Minorleaguesplits.com's MLEs to see how they compared. Somehow, they had different numbers for IP and stats for all of them. I know they are not right, but I am assuming they included MILB playoffs.
|
Niemann |
|||||||||||||
|
Adjusted |
IP |
HR |
BB |
IBB |
HBP |
K |
aBB |
aIBB |
aHBP |
aK |
FIP |
aFIP |
|
|
2007 (AAA) |
143.7 |
18 |
67 |
1 |
9 |
116 |
66.33 |
1 |
8.55 |
133.4 |
4.78 |
4.30 |
0.48 |
|
2008 (AAA) |
133.3 |
18 |
67 |
0 |
6 |
107 |
66.33 |
0 |
5.7 |
123.05 |
4.99 |
4.50 |
0.49 |
|
2008 (MLB) |
16 |
3 |
8 |
0 |
5 |
14 |
7.92 |
0 |
4.75 |
16.1 |
6.33 |
5.68 |
0.64 |
|
2009 (MLB) |
16.6 |
3 |
7 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
6.93 |
0 |
0.95 |
10.35 |
5.91 |
5.42 |
0.49 |
|
309.6 |
42 |
149 |
1 |
21 |
246 |
147.51 |
1 |
19.95 |
282.9 |
5.01 |
4.52 |
0.49 |
|
|
Sonnanstine |
|||||||||||||
|
Adjusted |
IP |
HR |
BB |
IBB |
HBP |
K |
aBB |
aIBB |
aHBP |
aK |
FIP |
aFIP |
|
|
2007 (AAA) |
67.7 |
6 |
13 |
0 |
2 |
65 |
12.87 |
0 |
1.9 |
74.75 |
3.10 |
2.65 |
0.45 |
|
2007 (MLB) |
130.6 |
18 |
26 |
2 |
5 |
97 |
25.74 |
2 |
4.75 |
111.55 |
4.17 |
3.70 |
0.47 |
|
2008 (MLB) |
193.3 |
21 |
37 |
2 |
5 |
124 |
36.63 |
2 |
4.75 |
142.6 |
3.95 |
3.56 |
0.39 |
|
2009 (MLB) |
15.6 |
1 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
12 |
5.94 |
1 |
0.95 |
13.8 |
3.65 |
3.29 |
0.36 |
|
407.2 |
46 |
82 |
5 |
13 |
298 |
81.18 |
5 |
12.35 |
342.7 |
3.87 |
3.45 |
0.42 |
|
|
Talbot |
|||||||||||||
|
Adjusted |
IP |
HR |
BB |
IBB |
HBP |
K |
aBB |
aIBB |
aHBP |
aK |
FIP |
aFIP |
|
|
2007 (AAA) |
173.3 |
19 |
88 |
0 |
10 |
112 |
87.12 |
0 |
9.5 |
128.8 |
5.03 |
4.63 |
0.40 |
|
2008 (AAA) |
163.3 |
9 |
67 |
0 |
11 |
121 |
66.33 |
0 |
10.45 |
139.15 |
3.87 |
3.53 |
0.34 |
|
2008 (MLB) |
9.6 |
3 |
11 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
10.89 |
0 |
0.95 |
5.75 |
9.97 |
9.24 |
0.73 |
|
2009 (AAA) |
16 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
4.95 |
0 |
0 |
9.2 |
3.14 |
2.98 |
0.16 |
|
362.2 |
31 |
171 |
0 |
22 |
246 |
169.29 |
0 |
20.9 |
282.9 |
4.55 |
4.18 |
0.37 |
|
As you can see, Niemann benefits the most from a move to the pen. You really can't go wrong no matter what though, except keeping crappy relievers I guess.
0 recs |
44 comments
|
Comments
To me they're long relievers at best
I want flame throwers at the back end, ala Balfour of ’08
by Raymondo on Apr 24, 2009 10:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Edwin Jackson and Seth McClung were(are) "flamethrowers"
I just want people who can get outs.
I could see Niemann as a really good reliever.
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Apr 24, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jackson had been brilliant till last night
Our pitching depth will carry us a long way
We need a new hitting coach
by Raymondo on Apr 24, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jackson has a 4.71 FIP.
That’s less than a fifth of a run improvement over last year.
His strikeout rate is down and his homerun rate is up. I wouldn’t call that “brilliant”.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 24, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.221 BABIP
Didn’t we go through this last year?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Apr 24, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Basically, you want what Seattle has. Or the White Sox.
A pen full of hard throwers with control issues, but when on, look like David Aardsma did yesterday. You can find guys like that a dime a dozen in the minor leagues, throw hard, have no freaking clue where the ball is going, etc — or you could sign them to mult-year deals, like Dayton Moore.
Interestingly, we’re taking the opposite approach and going for ‘finesse’ types.
Plus, Howell has more swinging strikes this year than guys like Morrow, Balfour, and C.J. Wilson. Velocity isn’t everything.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 24, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chad Harville baby
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 24, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smith's Study
I’d like to him factor the adjustments based on type of pitcher. I would venture to guess the marginal differences are greater for high heat guys and gimmick pitch hurlers. An artist like the poor man’s Maddux, Sonanstine who relies on mixing speeds and location probably could not expect to see the increases mentioned in the study.
by FreeZorilla on Apr 24, 2009 10:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Howell has had a huge improvement from moving to the pen.
by rglass44 on Apr 24, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Granted location isn't a strong suit.
He is an example of a guy that has gained “stuff” by moving to the pen, though. I wouldn’t consider him gimmicky (as he isn’t a LOOGY or a side-armer), and he definitely isn’t a flame-thrower.
by rglass44 on Apr 24, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What do you think the adjustment in Niemann's velocity will be?
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 24, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd imagine he'd gain a couple of MPHs.
I am going to look and see how the moves have effected a few guys. Nothing too scientific, just a few examples.
by rglass44 on Apr 24, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, if you could, see how it effected Johan to go to starting from relief (just for the sake of curiosity).
I want to see what it will be like when the Royals get their shit together and convert Soria
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 24, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I remember correctly R.J. looked at this
And discovered Niemann had about 2 MPH more as RP after looking at last years SSS. He also was more consistent with this location.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 24, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK I crunched some numbers.
Here’s what I found:
I looked over the last 5 years (2004-2008) for all pitchers who registered at least 10 IP as SP and RP. On average, this sample (272 pitchers) saw a gain of .538 MPH from a move to the pen. Niemann averaged about 91.4 MPH as a starter, and there are 73 pitchers who were w/ in 1 MPH either way as starters. They saw a similar gain of .517 MPH. So we would expect Niemann to gain about somewhere between .5 and 1 MPH as a reliever. Granted he has thrown harder than that as a reliever, so maybe it will be more.
by rglass44 on Apr 24, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just curious
What site do you use to gather your data? I’m trying to compile resources.
by FreeZorilla on Apr 24, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fangraphs.com is the bomb.com
Statcorner.com and minorleaguesplits.com are awesome too. I like firstinning.com to track prospects and for their organization report. Brooksbaseball.net is where you can find all the pitchFX graphs. Have you ever checked out RJ’s other SBN blog Beyond the Boxscore?
by rglass44 on Apr 24, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs
I’ve been getting pretty comfortable with the offensive data on fangraph. Admittedly, I haven’t done much playing around with pitching. Thanks for the recs, I’ll look into them.
by FreeZorilla on Apr 24, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Over the last three years
Andy has held opponents to a batting average of .269 between his 1-15 pitch count. That is a little higher then the opponents average between 46-60 pitch count where Andy is holding opponents down to a .239 batting average. If you take a guy like JP Howell who was money for the first 45 pitches or so then he got lit up. What this tells me is that Andy is not ready to hold down a middle relief role.
Niemann has a small sample size, so it’s hard to tell what he brings to the table, on the major league level. He was showing last year that first 15 pitches he held opponents to a .250 BA which shrunk to .238 when Niemann threw 16-31 pitches. But, after that Nieman got lit up of course. Right now, I think Niemann is bett suited for a starting role. Just look with your own eyes the game Niemann pitcfhed against Seattle. He was mixing his pitches. He was doing everything correct.
Bottom line, i feel that EVENTUALLY Sonny could fit into a middle reliever role with is propensitiy to throw strikes. However, I don’t think Sonny is at that point just yet. It would not surprise me if the Rays dealt Sonny to a team prbably around the trade deadline.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Apr 24, 2009 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Niemann was mixing up 2 pitches
That’s the sign of a relief pitcher good relief pitcher. The M’s were biting on the curve the whole series.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 24, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tommy
He used his slider a lot more then you are giving him credit for. He it were just a curve ball fast ball diet, major league hitters would have sat on the fast ball a lot more.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Apr 24, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was talking about his start from Wednesday
82 pitches
65 fastballs(total two seam and four)
14 curves
3 sliders
79% fastball, 17% curve, 3% slider.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 24, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry I thought you were implying
That’s all he threw.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Apr 24, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know he's thrown the slider more in other starts
It’s just this last start he was basically a fastball/curveball pitcher. Which was effective, but probably not sustainable as a starter since the curve isn’t a + curve. He either has to use more pitches as a starter or concentrate on a fb/curve or fb/slider combo and work out of the pen.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 24, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What happens beyond 60?
Joe always seems to pull Sonny sooner than the rest of the stafff regardless of how well he may be pitching. Is there evidence to show he falls off a cliff beyond 80-90 pitches?
by FreeZorilla on Apr 24, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In 88 ABs
between 91-105 pitches opponents are hitting .273 with 24 hits, 3 HR and 9 RBIs.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Apr 24, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff
What site did you use to grab this?
by FreeZorilla on Apr 24, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fox Sports Career splits.
by thebaddancingraysfan on Apr 24, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
website. I tried the link, and it wasn't taking. Lord knows.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerSplits?categoryId=443821&seasonSelected=1&splitYearForm=Go
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Apr 24, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't we trade Talbot before he runs out of options?
by walkoffwalk on Apr 24, 2009 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He wouldn't hold that much value right now.
The Rays could lose greatly on that deal if they traded Talbot.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Apr 24, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know we have great depth, but I wouldn't be so quick to move so many arms at once
Talbot could be a valuable swingman for the Rays if something were to happen injury wise.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 24, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now, I see Talbot as having Closer type stuff.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Apr 24, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd prefer my closer to have a plus pitch
Or a high swinging-strike percentage. Talbot doesn’t really have either, really. His change-up is above average and he could probably work as a 7th or 8th-inning guy, but I wouldn’t want him as closer.
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Apr 24, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That post brought to you by the Department Of Redundancy Department
“Talbot doesn’t really have either, really.”
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Apr 24, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The thing I love about Talbot
is the movement he has on his fastball. He has some late movement, that I have seen in person that really is awesome.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Apr 24, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The scouting report I read on Talbot
was that his 2-seam fastball is a plus pitch due to its movement. Has a lot of movement on the 4-seam too.
by RayFanNY on Apr 24, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff.
Keep in mind you want to move the pitcher that will give you the best team. For example, even if Sonny would gain more from a move to the pen, you’d keep him in the rotation, as his FIP (which is what we’re using for a measure of talent here) is much lower. You want your better pitchers in the rotation, most of the time, because they’ll pitch many more innings.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Apr 24, 2009 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Niemann
hasn’t been given a fair shot yet. Let’s give him some more starts before we take him out of the starter role.
Sonny could be moved to the bullpen as soon as Price (or Davis) moves into the rotation. Sonny puts up great peripherals, but he always seems to have an inning or two where he leaves pitches over the middle of the plate and gets crushed. Would be interested to see how he performs when batters only see him once per game.
I’m not giving up entirely on Sonny either, but I’d move him to the pen before Niemann at this point.
by RayFanNY on Apr 24, 2009 6:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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