Tampa Bay Rays Offense Goes Boom Behind 'Los/Gross

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 25, 2009 10:03 AM EDT

And then, sometimes, Gabe Gross makes plays that focus the spotlight purely on himself. After being staked to a lead early, Scott Kazmir put himself into some trouble. Gabe Gross ended that trouble when he threw out Ryan Sweeney attempting to score from third on a rather routine flyball. Gross then promptly came to the plate, and hit a ball out of the park, extending the lead after he helped to preserve it. So far, Gross has been ridiculously efficient when swinging the bat inside of the zone. Guess how many misses...

Go ahead.

Okay, it's a trick question; he hasn't missed a pitch inside of the zone that he's taken a hack at. That's impressive. Gross' OBP is .382 and his SLG is .346 with a .154 ISO (only about .020 points off last year), consider that Gross is seeing 71% fastballs (92.1 MPH) over last year's 60% (91.1). Based what we know about the inverse relationship between ISO and FB% , that's not too bad.

Speaking of ISO. Carlos Pena. Don't look now, but his HR/FB% is 29.6, during his epic 2007 season his HR/FB% was 29.1. No guarantees that doesn't regress back to ~20%, but for now let's just enjoy the ride. Consider this. Pena has eight homeruns already in 75 plate appearances. Let's assume he gets about 610, and over the next 535 hits a career average 40% flyballs on those in which he does put into play. Using his current walk and strikeout rates, that would mean about 124 flyballs. With a 29.6% homerun rate, ‘Los would finish with 44 homeruns. 20%: 33 homeruns. Let's say he finishes somewhere in the middle, around 25%. Then Pena gets extremely close to 40.

Now, if you use the last three years of his flyball percentage, you get extremely close to 50%. That would mean at this current pace Carlos Pena could top 50 homeruns. Unlikely, but at least somewhat interesting to think about.

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What's Pena's future here in TB?

Signed through with no options

Do you think we can re-sign him, and if not do we deal him after this season, or at trade deadline next year?

Here’s hoping he stays

by Raymondo on Apr 25, 2009 10:29 AM EDT reply actions

i think we try to resign him to a contract similar to what he is signed with now. maybe another 3/$24 mill. We don't really have any top 1b prospects. do we?

by walkoffwalk on Apr 25, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

That probably won't do it

unless the market continues to fall

Remember, we only locked him up for one of his FA years

He was under our control through ’09 regardless

by Raymondo on Apr 25, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't think we'll be able to afford re-signing him.

If they aren’t in contention next year, there’s a chance he’s traded at the deadline, hopefully for a young 1B prospect.

by rays1234 on Apr 25, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions

He's probably a let-him-walk candidate after 2010.

Really good player, but he’ll demand big money, and nobody’s worth $15M to a team with a $60M payroll. With all the high-salary guys the Rays will need to trade in the next year or two, getting a 1B back who has a decent bat and a good glove should be doable. Guys who can do something like .260/.380/.450 with a +5 to +10 run glove are underrated at 1B. No, not a star, but above average and cheap.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 25, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions