Regarding Dioner Navarro's Struggles

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 25, 2009 8:33 PM EDT

Dioner Navarro is probably the most hated Rays regular of the year thus far. Not that people literally hate him, but relative to all other players, Navarro's jerseys aren't flying off the hangers for wearing. Let's talk about his offensive struggles thus far.

O-Swing%: 26.1% (Career: 22%, 2008: 23.2%)

Swing%: 46% (Career: 45.2%, 2008: 45.4%)

Z-Contact%: 87.5% (Career: 92.4%, 2008: 94.4%)

Contact%: 80.2% (Career: 85.6%, 2008: 88.9%)

Zone%: 49.1% (Career: 52.3%, 2008: 52.3%)

Basically, Navarro is seeing far less strikes than usual, and for whatever reason, he's swinging out of zone. Why? Well, I don't really know. Perhaps Navarro is paranoid about the strike zone expanding without his knowledge, or he's just pressing. This wouldn't be much of a concern if his contact on pitches in zone weren't down to a career low 80%. That implies that Navarro is either having issues with his recognition, vision, bat control, or bat speed. None of those things deteriorating are particularly good.

Obviously there's still a ton of season to play, but these things usually stabilize quickly unless there's something else going on. Look at B.J. Upton's contact rate, it's obvious his bat is still in spring training mode, and he's making far less contact than usual because of it.

If it is a recognition thing, maybe the sudden change in attack against Navarro is to blame. More fastballs and curveballs, less change-ups and sliders so far. As Navarro sees less of A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett, those ratios should move a bit.

Navarro's line drive rate is way down and his BABIP is only .233 (career: .290). It doesn't help matters that he's refusing to walk while striking out more. Don't dump Navarro out in the bath water quite yet, but do recognize there's a flaw in his offensive profile right now, and it's costing him.

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simple

Word travels quicker around MLB than gossip in a HS.

Until he stops swinging at crappy pitches, he’s not going to see anything but crappy pitches.

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Apr 25, 2009 9:15 PM EDT reply actions

But he usually doesn't swing at crappy pitches.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 25, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions

h needs to start taking those outside corner pitches the opposite way v trying to pull everything

by Raymondo on Apr 25, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Yea, but he's started to this year

And advance scouts get the word out to keep throwing slip until he stops chasing it. So far, he hasn’t gotten the message.

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Apr 26, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions

the answer is simple: winter ball

Dioner played in 2007 in Venezuela, got ready for his spring (his last chance, following words from Maddon) and had a great season. This time he did´t play winter ball in 2008, and he´ll have a mediocre season this time. This kind of player NEED to prepare in winter ball. He knows that. He just choose no to do it.

by raysott on Apr 25, 2009 10:11 PM EDT reply actions

He looked better last night

two line drives that I saw, one for a hit. He’s had a lot of ground balls and short fly balls when he has made contact. Turning the bad contact into good contact is one of those things major league average hitters do through the course of a season, and it’s one of the things that makes them streaky. We don’t have any guys in our system who are better at the plate than Navi that I’m aware of, (I think jaso is a bit quicker so he may provide value in that since, but I haven’t seen anything that indicates he’s a better hitter) so we just have to ride his streaky value through the season.

by behn on Apr 25, 2009 10:12 PM EDT reply actions

imo, it's all in his head

i lnow that’s not a quantitive approach, but i feel hes pressing and much of that may result from his contract negotiations

but outside of a few, this team needs to take walks more, incuding Longoria

by Raymondo on Apr 25, 2009 10:14 PM EDT reply actions

also, shake the line up

too many LOB give you an idea, shake the line up (and maybe, the bull pen.) I got the feeling that we are still in spring training.

by raysott on Apr 25, 2009 10:23 PM EDT reply actions

Dioner's Demeanor

tells a great deal, and in Spring Training he was laughing and joking with everybody on a daily basis. Now he really has the appearance of something being wrong, flashback to 2007 and the family problems and realize that there may be something in that area.

There are plenty of ’what if"s, and who knows what it could be? Maybe he needed the extra time off in Spring Training like the pitchers.

by Doyouseeit? on Apr 26, 2009 12:46 PM EDT reply actions