What's Gone Wrong with the Tampa Bay Rays Lineup?
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 26, 2009 10:05 PM EDT
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PrintB.J. Upton
Predicted line*: .276/.382/.437
Actual line**: .171/.320/.220
What's gone wrong: Upton's rust at the plate is apparent. His contact rate is way down, and his groundball rate is up. He's fast, but he's not aiming well enough to amass anything higher than a .280 BABIP. That's nearly a hundred points lower than his career average. At least he's walking.
Will it get better/worse?: Better by default. No idea how long though. Could be a week or longer.
Carl Crawford
Predicted line: .292/.337/.445
Actual line: .284/.325/.365
What's gone wrong: Crawford's striking out at a career high rate. To his credit, the walk rate has quietly crept above career average, and could be heading for a career high. Not too much credit yet, though, because Crawford is still hacking at pitches out of the zone and making less contact with pitches inside of the zone.
Will it get better/worse?: Who knows. Contact rates usually stabilize relatively quickly unless there's a bigger issue at play. He's been a lot better lately, and you have to figure he'll hit a few doubles and triples eventually.
Evan Longoria
Predicted line: .265/..344/.483
Actual line: .375/.423/.734
What's gone wrong: In retrospect, the money donated to preserving our environment should've been donated to cloning machine technicians on the black market. Can you imagine nine Longorias? Scott Hatteberg step down, step down.
Will it get better/worse?: Worse, only because Evan isn't Albert Pujols or Barry Bonds.
Carlos Pena
Predicted line: .252/.378/.503
Actual line: .243/.329/.629
What's gone wrong: Well, he's not walking as much, but the added power has been a saving grace thus far. Blame a .225 BABIP for the batting average.
Will it get better/worse?: Double-edged sword. Pena's probably going to hit less homeruns and more singles/doubles as this season goes. Push, maybe?
Pat Burrell
Predicted line: .243/.371/.452
Actual line: .250/.377/.339
What's gone wrong: The power. It's not there.
Will it get better/worse?: Better. Even if you aren't a fan of Burrell for silly reasons like his splits against the AL, there's about a 0.000000000000001% chance his power skills decayed from four consecutive seasons of .500+ SLG to that of a singles hitter.
Dioner Navarro
Predicted line: .259/.330/.377
Actual line: .190/.203/.293
What's gone wrong: What's went right?
Will it get better/worse?: Can it get worse?
Gabes
Predicted lines: Gross .246/.343/.410 Kapler .272/.324/.423
Actual lines: Gross .214/.389/.357 Kapler .222/.300/.407
What's gone wrong: Gross has a BABIP far below career norms, but he's walk crazed. Kapler is striking out a lot more than you would expect for someone making contact on 86% of his pitches and not chasing out of the zone.
Will it get better/worse?: Almost certainly better.
Akinori Iwamura
Predicted line: .268/.347/.383
Actual line: .302/.371/.413
What's gone wrong: Nothing at all, despite increased strikeout rates.
Will it get better/worse?: Worse. Go figure Aki goes nuts when he's moved to the bottom of the order. That's just poor luck.
Jason Bartlett
Predicted line: .273/.334/.363
Actual line: .365/.412/.508
What's gone wrong: Not much.
Will it get better/worse?: Worse.
*A rough average of CHONE and ZiPS projections.
**Entering Sunday.
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recently, someone on here metioned Navi played winter ball before the start of last season.
and it helped. A lot. IIRC, he didn’t play this offseason. I wonder about the effects that might have had.
Not sure how to to really prove that either way
If he only played in 2008, then why were his numbers almost identical to 2007 when he didn’t play?
From 07 to 08
LD% increased
ISO decreased
BB% static
K% decreased
BABIP increased
O-Swing% static
Contact% increased
The only difference is he put more balls in play and had a higher average of those balls resulting in hits. That doesn’t seem like something that some additional playing in the winter would’ve helped, but maybe I’m ignoring some asset of it.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 26, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
The fact that he's not sitting eating pork rinds would be an asset.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
The only move that should be made is Navarro to Durham
He’s out of shape, can’t hit, and is coming up in clutch situations and failing miserably. The guy needs to get more athletic. Maybe it would be a nice wake up call to send Navi to Durham where he can be placed on a nutritional diet to lose some lard and learn how to hit again.
Sometimes you have to go old school. When slumping, hit the ball up the middle. It gets a hitter to start waiting on the ball and hitting it in the correct zone.
Damn these guys are frustrating my ass! when Navarro steps to the plate I could puke.
by ConnorManning on Apr 26, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
you are retarded
Michel Hernandez is a joke. Navarro’s defense, even with this offense, is better than Michel Hernandez. You just used clutch in an argument without citing leverage-based statistics. You’re lucky some people agree with you (thank god not many), because eventually (when he starts hitting) all you’ll have to rag on is his weight and you will then look like… well… a retard.
Before you state that I cited no statistics either:
- Defense is a plus over anyone else we can put in there. We have no really good metrics, but I’d say at least 5 runs.
- Contact rate is due for progression
- Fly ball rate is up (albeit as a result of LD rate dropping)
- He is taking more balls
- .217 BABIP… you know thats going up.
Final Answer?
Is it lack of “clutchness”? It seems this team cant buy a hit with runners in scoring position, and cant string bunches of hits together. I would imagine because of the few huge offensive games this team has had this season, it has skewed their stats a bit. I bet if you eliminated their top 4 offensive games and their top 4 low scoring games, their offensive stats would look remarkable different.
And that’s just the hitting…
Yeah but don't all teams have their offensive performance skewed by the top and bottom results?
They’ve been exactly average with RISP.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 26, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah..
That’s why I think if you remove the best and worst performances, instead of just the top ones. It would really show the ineptitude of the offense. Is that called mean or median? Cant remember from math class. They have been consistently awful outside a few games.
Mean is the average. Median is the absolute middle.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 26, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Median is 3 runs.
Mean is 4.61 runs.
Mode is 2 runs.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 26, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for pulling that....
That’s exactly what I was looking for. I think that demonstrates how consistently poor this team is performing with the bats.
'Even if you aren't a fan of Burrell for silly reasons like his splits against the AL'
I wouldn’t put myself in the ‘not a fan’ catergory, but the AL has clearly been better in recent years, and I don’t see why this shouldn’t apply to Burrell s well. Not that he sucks…just that I’m not expecting quite the production that he had in the NL.
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2009 10:39 PM EDT reply actions
That's fine, you should expect a slight drop off from the league switch and DH transition.
I’m not talking about that camp, I’m talking the camp that thinks he’s going to be a pumpkin.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 26, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Well given his track record
I also expect prolonged slumps…followed by prolonged tears (not sure how much of this is based on reputation vs. how much of it can actually be proven by his splits)
In any event, I expect him to rebound.
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 26, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
But Pat keeps his eyebrows well manicured!
Personal hygiene has to count for something?
by ConnorManning on Apr 27, 2009 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I was told the sample size was small
but Burrell as a DH has been a flop
...
Will it get better/worse?: Better. Even if you aren’t a fan of Burrell for silly reasons like his splits against the AL, there’s about a 0.000000000000001% chance his power skills decayed from four consecutive seasons of .500+ SLG to that of a singles hitter.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 26, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Burrell is my near favorite Ray
cause he has plate discipline, but till he produces as a DH, i’ll have my doubts
If this happened during June in place of April you wouldn't have doubts.
Well, maybe you would, I don’t know. Seriously though, nobody’s skills decay like that.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 26, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Now, now, be nice
what’s his longest dryspell w/o a HR?
Looks like a little over 107 PAs in 2007.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 26, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
He's in an 11-game slump.
Entering this year he had a 10 game streak going. 5 streaks 20+ games.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 26, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
With the team's record
I would not be surprised if Joe switched things up. I would like to maybe Barty leading off for a few games, drop BJ down to 9th in the order. As soon as BJ gets his swing back, move him to the top of the order.
CC has been okay. I would like more pop and or solid hits but he has been alright thus far.
Evan has been great. I like him @ the third spot. Same with Pena. Even Burrell seems good @ the 5 spot.
6 and over through the line-up makes me queasy from time to time. We need consistency from the RF and Catcher. Aki has done well, and hope he continues to be a pesky hitter.
We have some good spots and some bad spots. Hopefully we can get it together but i would be shocked if a few players were not demoted/promoted by the end of May.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Apr 26, 2009 10:56 PM EDT reply actions
You cannot win in the AL
w/o at least putting up 4 R/GM
Average: 4.6.
And yeah, that’s inflated, but so are more other team’s offensive numbers.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 26, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
RJ, what are Sonny's numbers in his last 11
regular season starts?
I read he’s winless, but curious of his numbers
He had some great starts at the end of last year
I wasn’t much of a fan of Sonny until he made those late season starts. He may or may not got the win in those games, but what does that matter? He pitched damn well.
Anyone else?
I can’t watch the game tonight in Fenway, cause i puke every time the standings on the wall comes into view
It pisses me off.
But, I know the Rays have the pieces to pull it off. They have just hit some bumps int he road. Now, but June and the Rays are still at the bottom. I am going to be sick to my stomach.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Apr 26, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't wait for most of these guys to eat chow when we start tearing the skin off the ball.
And pitching some great games.
RJ
What’s went wrong
or
What’s gone wrong (this is the correct one)
I know this isn’t an English grammar blog, but this is an extremely basic mistake.
by plasticman on Apr 27, 2009 12:31 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
In all fairness,
as a fellow days away from receiving a bachelor’s degree in English, I will be the first to admit that the English language is a changing, growing language that in 150 years will be almost unrecognizable to many of us. Therefore, I’m taking the uncommon position in that RJ’s way of saying it is fine because we all clearly understood his intentions.
In addition, we should all start saying ‘ax’ instead of ‘ask’ because it’s obviously shorter to spell and easier to say. /serious
B Rad the Ray Fan
You are a disgrace to English professors everywhere.
Seriously though: everyone on this site makes typos, but this one stands out among all others (in the headline of the article, for example!). It should be fixed.
Where are you getting your degree?
The one thing that I am seeing this year versus last year
The lack of hart and hustle.
They do not look committed to challenging every pitch thrown at them nor fielding every ball hit their way.
I was watching the game friday night and in the 2nd inning I believe it was Kazmir threw a wicked slider that hit the dirt . Navi didn’t drop or react or anything. It hit the backstop and a runner advanced to second. He conceded the base. Didn’t try to stop it and didn’t look embarassed by it at all.
If that were Upton last year people would have been calling for him to get benched or traded. I guess when you look back and people ask what went wrong. They have gotten lazy and complacent.
I am not looking forward to the series this weekend against Boston. Something tells me we are going to get embarassed 4 straight games at home by Boston this weekend before the team finally wakes up and realizes that they have to play every pitch of every at bat and every pitch defensively.
This weekend could be a bottom out point followed by a turn around. The worst thing that can happen in my opinion is that they actually win 2 or 3 of the 4 games. That will only continue the lack of a sense of urgency and hustle amongst the team.
If you want offensive consistency how about putting a consistent lineup on the field. Why is it that every time I turn around this one or that one is out of the lineup without an injury? Every Sunday we are throwing the split squad spring training guys out there. I understand players need a day off after a while. But what exactly are they taking a day off from?
Getting less plate appearances is not going to help people like Upton and Navi. Seeing more pitches will. Once the consistency starts then you get a day off. Until then they should be in the lineup and seeing pitches.
No Heart and No Hustle makes Pewter a sad fan
by PewterPirate55 on Apr 27, 2009 10:25 AM EDT reply actions
I'm more worried about Bossman than Navi
Any coincidence that the real drop off began once Bossman hit the order. A leadoff batter in the kind of slump has ramifications up and down the lineup. I think if Bossman gets it together, the Rays will start winning and be able to beat lefties.
Visit the Rays Revolutionary Blog at http://raysrev.blogspot.com
I disagree
Navarro has been as close to an automatic out as you can be. Plus he has done this before for an extended period of time(see first half 2007). I don’t think we can consistently win with that big of a deadweight (.183/.197/.283) in the lineup. Worst thing is we have no one to replace him. If he hits like this for the first half we have little chance of making the playoffs
Plus BJ Upton is way too good to be hitting this bad.
Doesn't facing..
8 LHP of the first 19 games have an affect on the predictions, since they are presumably based on the concept that about 75% of starting pitchers are RH?
Or would handedness not be a consideration this early on?
We've had a higher OPS versus lefties than righties this year.
And our lineup is balanced.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 27, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
So Bartlett's high average makes sense
since he has always been better vs LHP than RHP.
And a 1-7 record in games vs LH starters can’t go unmentioned.
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