Series Preview: 4/27-4/29 Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 27, 2009 12:53 PM EDT

4/27: Jeff Niemann vs. Scott Baker (8:10 FSF)

4/28: James Shields vs. Francisco Liriano (8:10 SS)

4/29: Scott Kazmir vs. Nick Blackburn (8:10 SS)

The ALDS match-up that never happened.

I’m a big fan of Scott Baker (He's the guy I really, really wanted for Ty Wigginton), which means most of the population thinks the guy is far too hittable and should be demoted to Rochester immediately. Baker’s thrown eight and two-thirds innings this year and has allowed seven homeruns. Not the best of starts for someone signed to an extension during the off-season. FanGraphs has him near 30% line drives allowed, given his history I highly doubt Baker is going to continue to pitch like that for much longer. He sits 91-92 with a slider, curve, and change, all of which he throws in the zone. You’re going to see a ton of the Rays hitters down 0-1 tonight, don’t panic and hopefully they won’t either. Baker can definitely be roughed up if the Rays can exercise some discipline and take advantage of opportunities.

Another tough assignment for Shields, this time it’s Liriano. I remember when Liriano was the envy of the league’s collective eye a few years ago, and this is hardly the same Liriano. His swinging strike rate is still good – a tick above 9% -- but comes nowhere close when compared to his 2005/2006 numbers. 91-93 MPH fastball, 84-86 slider, and a change-up. Expect Liriano to start the at-bat with a strike then make the hitters chase out of the zone.

Finally, Blackburn. I’m always reminded of former New York Rangers goalie Dan Blackburn when I think of Nick. Blackburn is sort of like Lance Cormier. His fastball sits 90-91, has a cutter, a curve, a change, he strikes next to nobody out but doesn’t walk too many either. His stuff isn’t going to create many whiffs or groundballs either. Losing to him will be an honor.

C Mike Redmond

1B Justin Morneau

2B Alexei Casilla

3B Joe Crede

SS Nick Punto

LF Delmon Young/Denard Span

CF Carlos Gomez

RF Michael Cuddyer

DH Jason Kubel

No Joe Mauer makes this lineup lackluster. Justin Morneau finishing with more MVP votes than Mauer last year is a disservice to Mauer and the interest of baseball intelligence around the league. Catchers who hit .328/.413/.451 are far more valuable than first basemen who hit .300/.374/.499. That’s 0.009 OPS points offensively, and the difference between the most difficult position on the field and the least difficult position on the field (I said on the field, DH doesn’t count, sillies.)

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Comments

Interesting note

Although we’ve sucked the big one so far this year, we have not been swept.

AC/DC + Tampa Bay Rays = Big Balls on a Budget

by Orlando Rays on Apr 27, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions

The problem with Mauer is he never plays

Any great ratio is meaningless without adding how much they actually played.

We should win 2 of 3, in fact we should win all three of these games. Of course we let clearly inferior teams beat us recently so who knows?

by matthan on Apr 27, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions

i'd hesitate to call the twins inferior.

they’re a very good team. nearly made the playoffs last year. let’s not have this haughty attitude toward teams that don’t merit it.

by yeseggs on Apr 27, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

You can call their offense inferior without Mauer

Without him, they have had an even harder time scoring runs than we have. The Twins are a solid ball-club, but they are missing their key offensive weapon and their pitching is also struggling. The issue is that Baker and Liriano are going to come around eventually. Hopefully not in the next 2 days though.

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Apr 27, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Morneau had an entire 80 plate appearance advantage.

The horror!

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 27, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I was talking about Mauer in general

He just needs to be healthy and get a bit more pop. He kind of reminds me of some of our players in that we can be really station to station (minus the stolen bases of course). Its just tough to score a lot of runs when you are required to string together a lot of walks and singles. I’ve always thought slugging is weighted a bit too low when it comes to OPS. Like I think we literally must lead the world in the number of times that we get 3+ hits or walks in an inning and fail to score. Mauer is a guy that fits the same mold. Definitely need a few of those guys on every team, but thats why Morneau is thought of a bit higher.

by matthan on Apr 27, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Morneau is thought of higher because most people are dumbasses

Who don’t understand positional adjustments.

Nothing in your comment indicates why Morneau is thought of higher. And no, SLG is not undervalued in OPS, if anything it’s overvalued. Hence why smart people like Tom Tango develop metrics like wOBA and (to a far lesser extent) GPA. And that point is non-nonsensical in this example anyways. Morneau had 0.048 SLG points on Mauer. That’s not exactly a lot for a first baseman versus a catcher.

Seriously, there’s no case to be made where Morneau is better that makes sense.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 27, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

wOBA and GPA

sounds like this week’s homework assignment for me

by FreeZorilla on Apr 27, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Morneau is highly overrated on his own

I just think Mauer is very overrated also. McCann has a similar OPS as Mauer and I’d take him everyday and twice on Sundays over Mauer (disregarding things like contracts). Mauer is an injury prone singles hitter. Granted most catchers don’t even hit singles so he is an above average catcher by default factoring in his PT.

And we know you love OBP as your main driver. Nothing wrong with that. I just prefer XBH. Maybe the Rays just annoy me with the 3+ H’s and Walks without scoring innings. Probably causes me to be a bit biased.

by matthan on Apr 27, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions