Niemann Shines In Rays Victory

by Erik Hahmann on Apr 28, 2009 12:02 AM EDT

I never thought this would happen at the beginning of the season, but Jeff Niemann has been one of the Rays most consistent starting pitchers thus far. If you throw out the first inning of his first start of the season where he allowed five runs, he's actually pitched very well for a 5th starter.

Niemann has a habit this season of lasting into the 6th inning and throwing around 95 pitches before hitting a wall, and he didn't deviate off that pattern tonight lasting 5.2IP and throwing 94 pitches. Niemann seemed to be in total control most of the night, never getting into any serious trouble and getting some big swings and misses when he needed them the most.

With two on and one out in the third inning and the Rays ahead by only two runs Niemann faced power threat Justin Morneau. Morneau didn't last long. Niemann struck out Morneau on four pitches with great location on his fastball and excellent movement on his breaking pitches. Next up was the hot hitting Jason Kubel. Navarro dropped a strike from Niemann and both runners advanced on a double steal attempt, putting the tying runs in scoring position. Niemann didn't shy away from Kubel, pounding the zone for two strikes then getting Kubel to chase a ball down in the dirt for strike three to end the inning.

Those two at bats were critical and impacted the game significantly in my opinion. The Twins had begun to rally a bit and Rays starters had been giving up early leads lately, so getting those two punch-outs was as big as it gets in the third inning.

Morneau at bat:

via brooksbaseball.dustinkikuchi.com

Kubel at bat:

via brooksbaseball.dustinkikuchi.com

Niemann seemed to be much more succssful tonight in mixing his pitches. As opposed to his previous start in Seattle, where according to PitchFX he didn't throw a single changeup, Niemann was able to mix in nine tonight. Being able to locate a 90MPH fastball then following that with an 80MPH changeup is usually a good recipe for success. As Tommy noted earlier, if Niemann can maintain this level of success he may not be the odd man out of the rotation afterall come Price time.

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Comments

Using more than two pitches and getting a ton of whiffs are definitely encouraging signs.

Hopefully he can keep doing it.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2009 12:10 AM EDT reply actions

Shines? I like the result (7-1 win), but was the process that good? (he walked 4 in 5.2 ip).

It reminded me of a typical E-Jax start from last year…(I’m not saying it’s a bad thing)

by walkoffwalk on Apr 28, 2009 12:22 AM EDT reply actions

It's also important to note the quality of opposition here.

This is the first time Niemann has actually produced whiffs. So that’s nice. The walks are a bit concerning though.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not too worried about the walks

In his brief usage last year his ML BB/9 was 4.5. Right now it’s 4.48. Jeff’s BB/9 in 2 full AAA seasons was 3.16 and 3.38. I think as he gets more comfortable that rate is going to approach his AAA average.

This is cooking the books a bit, but look when at the walks occur.

@ Baltimore: 4 BB, 1 in the 1st, 1 in the 5th, and 2 in the 6th on the final 2 batters faced.
White Sox: 1 BB in the 2nd.
@ Seattle: 2 BB, 1 in the 5th, 1 on the final batter faced.
@ Minnesota: 4 BB, 1 each in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 6th (including the last batter faced)

So, out of 11 BB total, 4 have been in his last inning when he’s hit the “Niemann Wall” and gotten the hook three out of four times. Considering he’s only finished the 6th once, if you apply Maddon’s occasional Sonny treatment and pull him after 5, you would have a 3.15 BB/9 rate, which is much closer to his career average.

I think our standards are pretty high for Jeff all things considered. This was only his 6th ML start ever. I think has he gets more confident at the ML level (we see him pitch with guys on base, he’s clearly not there yet) and stretches out to the point where he has more left in the tank by the 6th, his walk rate could drop to a more acceptable level. I thought his start today was his best one yet, for the reasons that Erik highlights.

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Apr 28, 2009 1:42 AM EDT reply actions