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Tampa Bay Rays - an outsider's analysis

In what I plan to make the first part of a three part series analyzing the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees, I'll start off with the Rays.

Lineup: The team's biggest weakness last year was hitting left-handed pitching (.726 team OPS vs. lefties in 2008), so what did they do? They went out and signed Pat Burrell, who had a .952 OPS vs. lefties, and adds a potent 30-homer bat to the lineup along with a solid approach at the plate (over 100 walks each year the past two seasons). Along with adding Burrell, they traded for Matt Joyce, who had a solid if unspectacular rookie season in Detroit. Joyce looks to be a young and controllable RF option for the next 5+ years for the Rays. Also, the Rays can look forward to expected bounceback seasons out of Carl Crawford and BJ Upton, adding some potency to the top of the lineup. The Rays lineup was mostly average (yet clutch) last season, it figures to be a strength this year.

Rotation: There is some concern to be had for the rotation, if for only the fact that every Rays pitcher pitched career high's in innings last year. If there are any pitchers right now I'm somewhat concerned with, they'd be Matt Garza and Scott Kazmir. Kazmir's ERA of 3.49 from 2008 is deceptive to me. Kazmir, from June on, was more or less a 5 inning pitcher with shaky command. If Kazmir can become a bit more economically-sound on the mound this year, he should return to form. As for Garza, my concerns are predicated on how he acts on the mound, as that can hurt him from time to time. When he's on, he arguably has the best stuff in the rotation. The Rays rotation has some injury risk (more on that later) but currently profiles as a probable strength.

Bullpen: This is perhaps the biggest question mark for the Rays, but that isn't supposed to be much of a surprise. Bullpen's by nature are combustible, as relievers simply aren't as good as starting pitchers (there's always a major flaw obviously, be it command, stamina, mentality, or any other reason). The Rays bullpen was perhaps their biggest strength last year, but I'm taking a wait-and-see approach. I love the Joe Nelson and Brian Shouse signings (Nelson: 2.00 ERA for Florida last year; Shouse 1.80 for Milwaukee) but I want to see how guys like JP Howell, Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler perform this year. I'm a bit skeptical right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if they prove me wrong. The bullpen is solid right now, definitely not hurting the team, but I'm hesistant to call it a "strength", at least right now.

Injury risks: I'd say the rotation (the front 4, anyway) are legitimate injury risks, but, for reasons already mentioned, because they pitched career highs in innings last year, pitching deep into October. The Rays had some luck last year, being able to go with the same starting 5 from the middle of May on through the end of the season. I'd be very surprised if they do that again. Luckily, the Rays do have the depth to cover some rotation injuries, in the form of pitchers such as Wade Davis and Carlos Hernandez (among others).

Final Analysis: I see a well-constructed team coupled with a solid farm system, and no true weaknesses anywhere. As big a Yankee fan as I am, exercising objectivity, I see this team as the top team in all of baseball.

Prediction: 98-64, 1st place, World Series favorites from the AL.

Publisher's note: If I'm off-base on any of this or feel I'm an idiot, don't be afraid to let that be known. Please exercise objectivity.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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