In The Hole, The Rays Climb Out Must Begin Tonight

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 30, 2009 8:53 AM EDT

If you think things couldn't have gotten any worse going into last night's game allow me to recap the bottom of the first inning:

Single
Single to 3^rd base on a play Longoria makes 11/10 times
Walk
Wild pitch (run scored)
Single on a pop up to short right field with three players within five feet of the ball(run scored)
Flyout
Single on a ball to shortstop(run scored)
Strikeout, wild pitch on third strike(run scored)
Walk
Flyout

4-0 Twins, game over.

Blame it on the goose, blame it on the henney, blame it on whatever you want and it's still awful. To pin it all on Scott Kazmir, whose box score took the bulk of the punishment is unfair. The Rays could've easily limited the damage had they actually played like the Rays. Evan Longoria and Jason Bartlett failed to outs on ground balls that we are accustomed to see them handling. Ben Zobrist and Aki Iwamura had communication problems on a shallow pop up that should've easily been an out and held the runners. It was one of those learning experiences for Zobrist, who needs to take charge in that situation as he was in a much better position to make the catch and a throw if needed. I guess that's what you get with a career infielder learning how to play the corner outfield on the job.

Overall, this was undoubtedly the worst game of the season, and quite possibly one of the worst games during the Joe Maddon era. A team with this much talent shouldn't go out there and look like amateurs. The Rays return home tonight to play as big of a four game series as you can get in April/May. The Rays already trail the Red Sox by 6.5 games in the standings and while a split is more likely, anything less than winning three out of four would be a disappointment to me.

So far we've heard and used many excuses about it being early on and things can't be this bad, but tomorrow is May 1st and you don't want to be trailing your biggest rival by 7.5 games on May 1st. Plain and simple the Rays must play better and start doing so this series. Many people are using the phrase "the Rays have dug themselves in a hole." Well it's time to start climbing out of that hole tonight.

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Comments

"while a split is more likely, anything less than winning three out of four would be a disappointment to me"

Agreed. If we don’t win 3 games I’m pretty much resigning myself to only looking forward to what we get back in the Carl Crawford trade at the deadline, and who we’re gonna pick in the 2010 Rule 4

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 9:25 AM EDT reply actions

Also, this is only partially sarcasm

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

I only partially laughed

The rest was a sob.

by PlayOnWords on Apr 30, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Miscommunication

Maddon said Zo heard Aki calling for the ball. This is still on Zo as he needs to learn to take command out there. However it is not a valid reason to end the Zo in right field experiment. Its not a defensive limitation, its a growth curve.

by FreeZorilla on Apr 30, 2009 9:48 AM EDT reply actions

The outfielder is always in the better position than the infielder with his back turned

It’s learning experience that’s going to have some mistakes like last night. It just came at a really bad time.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 30, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed 100%

by FreeZorilla on Apr 30, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

MVB is mad

"There was no real fire tonight," Bartlett said. "Tonight it just seemed like we were already thinking about our plane ride home…We’ve got to come out tommorrow and play hard. And if we lose, we lose. But we’ve got to play hard. Tonight, it didn’t look like that."

Link

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 30, 2009 10:10 AM EDT reply actions

VMB

Very Mad Bartlett

by PlayOnWords on Apr 30, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions

We are missing Jonny Gomes punching someone in the face

I think Balfour needs to start something.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 30, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Throwing strikes?

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions

In peoples faces

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 30, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

That's good, but I've yet to see him demonstrate the ability to throw them over the plate this year.

That having been said, hitting Dustin “Brother of a pedophile” Pedroia in the face with 94 mph heat wouldn’t make me well up in tears

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

winds up to throw wild pitch in David Ortiz's face

/pitch nips the inside corner for a strike

by ReasonableDoubt on Apr 30, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions

I cannot wait until we go on a winning streak and Bartlett is proclaimed the team captain.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Last year the MVP was a joke because he was like the 15th best player on the team

You can’t really make fun of him being overrated this year though….

And obviously Percival should be the team captain

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not making fun of him for being overrated.

I’m making fun of people who are going to take that quote and make it into the changing point of the season. Bartlett saying “We need more fire” isn’t going to make the breaks go our way or stop with the insane baserunning errors.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm willing to deal with the stupid "turning point" articles and sports talk nonsense as long as they actually do turn it around

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Also, brawlfense articles

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Are you suggesting violence solves problems?

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes.

Swav or Die.

by SRQman on Apr 30, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

My experience has shown that it can.

by ReasonableDoubt on Apr 30, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not, but all of your image macros from May and June of last year certainly hint at it

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

My image macros wre for fun you silly runt.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

/adds "silly runt" to list of worst burns ever

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Absolutely.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Bring up Jaso and start him and then we will have the fire

Navi just sucks. Worst starter in MLB right now. By far. He sucks behind the plate. Can’t throw runners out. Can’t get base hits. And can’t even make productive outs. Frankly I could do an equivalent job as him right now. I can catch the balls just like he can. I can’t block any balls but neither can he. And I won’t do anything right vs MLB pitching and well neither can he.

Plus he looks totally dead out there. New blood will bring new emotion.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 10:57 AM EDT reply actions

I know Navi sucks and all right now

But 22 games ago most people were calling for an extension and mad at Andrew Friedman for going to arbitration with him. Knee jerk reactions are not the calling card of the Rays.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 30, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Most people are stupid

I was calling to draft Buster Posey from the get go. Navi has never, and will never be the long term answer at catcher. He had a good first half of last year with some “clutch” hits that just so happened to be on the cinderella team. Big deal. Other than that he has been average at best and pure garbage at worst.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

So you were calling for Matt Wieters too, right?

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually no

Two totally different scenarios. Price was much more of a consensus #1 and our staff was a bit shakier at that point in the game.

Last year it was much more fluid at the top than 2007, plus we actually have a window of opportunity to win right now. Navi was obviously a weak link and Posey would have been a major upgrade. Beckham will be nice but he is a ways away and hopefully our window isn’t shut by the time he arrives.

If we win a title before Beckham gets here than it was the right move.

Wieters would be nice right now too….

Either way Navi just sucks. Maybe some people got brainwashed by a semi good first half of last year. I didn’t.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

"If we win a title before Beckham gets here than it was the right move."

Holy results based analysis Batman.

I’m not even going to waste my time on this one. I’m just blown away.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Quite clearly the opportunity cost of taking Beckham is the lost productivity of Posey over Navi during our window of opportunity

If you don’t see that then I don’t see what to tell you.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions

damn edit button

Either way if we win a title then there is no debating the opportunity cost. There was none. If we do not win a title then the cost is whatever Posey would have given us over Navi. If we are talking about last place compared to 4th place then its not a big deal. But if we are talking about champions over ALCS then well that makes a huge deal.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I just love this idea.

A. That reaching the playoffs is somehow less of an accomplishment then winning the playoffs. One takes more talent and less luck.
B. That Tim Beckham being a part of a WS winning Rays team somehow would make this a bad pick.
C. That the Rays scouts, who apparently liked Beckham’s upside more than Posey’s, should’ve taken Posey because Dioner Navarro is the major league catcher.
D. Because you weren’t fooled by a good first half, but you were probably fooled by a bad first half in 2007 and 2009.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

A. Who said that? I said if Posey instead of Navarro is the difference between being AL Champs and being WS champs then we made the wrong pick. Simple as that. Call it luck, call it whatever you want to call it. You play the game to win.

B. Ever hear of something called present value? A title in 2010 is worth far more to us right than a Beckham title led team in 2018

C. There is far more than drafting just upside. Variability of returns and the timing of those returns also must be considered.

D. You base him not sucking off of 1 half of 1 year. I base him sucking on his entire track record minus 1 half of year. Your sample size is far smaller.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions

D is flat out incorrect.

2005 199 PA -0.1 wRAA
2006 302 PA -8.2 wRAA
2007 434 PA -18.6 wrAA
2008 470 PA 0.7 wRAA
2009 74 PA -8.3 wRAA

2005: Good, small sample.
2009: Bad, small sample.

2006: Average.

2007: Bad.
2008: Good.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Also this isn't taking into account usually solid defense or park adjustments.

Considering he’s played at Dodgers Stadium and the Trop, those offensive totals are a bit deflated.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

This is a bit confusing

wRAA is weighted runs above average. So 0 should be average. Why are you saying he was average in 2006? He looks quite a bit below average. Are you just comparing it to the other 30+ near full time catchers and he is around the midpoint of that? or????

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

We're talking about the other catchers with 300+ PAs.

Look the numbers up.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Just did...in 2006 you said he was average?

Navi was 25th out of 29 catchers with over 300 PAs in wRAA.

That is nowhere near average. That is almost dead freaking last.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

In 2007

He was 27th out of 30

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

In 2008

9th out of 29

So 2 out of 3 full time years he was almost the worst catcher offensively in the league with 300+ PA and 1 year he is slightly above average.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

And so far this year Navi is 23rd out of 23rd

With catchers with 50 PAs.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I looked at the last few years and -20 was the bottom, -10 looked around average.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Using this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=6&season=2008&month=12

He’s around 25th out of the 60 catchers with 300+ PA from 06-08. That’s pretty average. Joe Mauer is first. He’s so overrated though. Total singles hitter.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

300 PAs over 3 years is pretty small sample size and includes some really bad out of baseball players….the fact that Navarro has more WRAA than say Mike Lieberthal, Toby Hall, Javy Lopez, Gary Bennett…..isn’t really the right apples to apples type comparison.

For a 3 year comparison the cutoff would need to be like 1000 PAs.

And you are right about Mauer. I probably do underestimate him. All the rumors that he is injury prone and won’t catch in the future probably got to me.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

If you sort it by 1000 PAs he is 17 out of 22

I’d say 1000 is more representative of a major league starter over this past 3 year span than 300 PAs. Look at the guys immediately ahead and below him. Not very impressive….

Name PA wRAA
Joe Mauer 1720 70.4
Jorge Posada 1332 69.9
Brian McCann 1624 59.9
Victor Martinez 1599 42.9
Russell Martin 1738 38.5
Gregg Zaun 1018 3.3
Ramon Hernandez 1482 0.4
Bengie Molina 1548 -2.3
Jason Varitek 1421 -10.1
Paul Lo Duca 1233 -10.1
Ivan Rodriguez 1528 -11.6
Ronny Paulino 1109 -12.3
A.J. Pierzynski 1629 -13
Kenji Johjima 1464 -13.4
Gerald Laird 1090 -19
John Buck 1230 -22
Dioner Navarro 1210 -23.8
Miguel Olivo 1239 -27.7
Yadier Molina 1351 -33.1
Brian Schneider 1316 -36.6
Jason Kendall 1737 -43.1
Brad Ausmus 1156 -49.5

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Just to mention that Buster Posey was a top catching prospect. Guess who else was a top catching prospect?

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Dioner Navarro was.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey hey, good job!

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

So your point?

Navarro sucks now. Posey is not guaranteed, and his variability is greater, but at least he has potential to not suck.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha, what? Navi also has the potential not to suck, see last year.

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry, that should have been HAHAOHWOW

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to mention Posey's upside really isn't THAT much greater than what Navi did last year.

Maybe a little more power, but Posey’ll prolly be a 280-290 hitter with plus defense… you know, kind of like Navarro!

by Suttree on Apr 30, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll reply to all of you...

Look at his careeer. Stop looking at a half of one year. he has routinely been out of shape, and not erally that good of a catcher. He has never really hti except for one half of one year. Garza sucks when Navi catches him etc.

Look at his track record…

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Trust me..

I want Navi to dominate. He is our catcher. I’m not rooting for him to fail. I just do not see it. His MLB track record is just not good. I don’t see him being a + player anywhere across the board. Perhaps just throwing runners out. He has always had issues with balls in the dirt. He is average at absolute best handling the pitching staff. And he is not anywhere close to an okay hitter.

I hope to God he turns it around. I just don’t see it based upon his history.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

That's the thing, I am looking at his entire career.

Dioner Navarro 2007
Pre-ASB: 209 ABs, .177/.238/.254
Post-ASB: 179 ABs, .285/.340/.475

Dioner Navarro 2008: 427 ABs, .295/.349/.407

Dioner Navarro 2009: 72 ABs, .181/.192/.264

Now, I’m not a doctor… but, I think good numbers put up during 606 ABs outweigh shitty numbers put up during less than 300 ABs.

by Suttree on Apr 30, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, BP had him as +15 defender last year.

RF/G had him as 7.6, which is .6 higher than Joe Mauer.

Is he having a rough year? Absolutely, he’s been fucking AWFUL so far and the passed balls – particularly last night – have been insanely frustrating.

But, 22 games is way too early to give up on him.

by Suttree on Apr 30, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

22 games doesn't overide the 200+ before that where Navi was a good bat and excellent defender.

by Suttree on Apr 30, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

You make it sound like an average catcher is a bad thing

Most teams would love to have an average catcher.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 30, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I think we should trade Wade Davis, Nick Barmese, and Jeremy Hellickson for AJ Pyersierianaserfaski

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

That doesn't make sense.

Either way Navi is not average. I certainly would take half the teams starting catchers, or at least close to it, over Navi. Especially going forward in the future.

by matthan on Apr 30, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd say roughly have of them

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions