Series Preview: 4/30-5/3 Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 12:54 PM EDT
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Print4/30: Josh Beckett vs. Matt Garza (7:08 SS)
5/1: Justin Masterson vs. Andy Sonnanstine (7:38 SS)
5/2: Tim Wakefield vs. Jeff Niemann (7:08 FSF)
5/3: Brad Penny vs. James Shields (1:38 TBS/FS-F)
Well, this series just got a little more important.
Same old, same old with Josh Beckett. High octane fastball and a ridiculous curveball that leaves hitters of both hands off balance. He's missing slightly less bats than in the past, although not enough to really make much of a difference, and he's also throwing less strikes. That could potentially make a difference. Assuming the Rays aren't behind 1-2 or 0-2 in every at-bat.
Masterson is a starter-turned-reliever-turned-starter thanks to the injury to Daisuke Matsuzaka. He's fastball/slider heavy hurler with some occasional change-up usage. Prepare for a lot of groundballs.
Wakefield. Knuckleballs are ruining baseball!
Penny uses a 92-93 MPH fastball and curve with some split finger action thrown in. He's not getting many batters to follow him out of the zone or whiff in general and he's allowing a ton of homeruns. This could be a fun series finale, or could be sad. Ridiculously sad.
CA Jason Varitek
1B Kevin Youkilis
2B Dustin Pedroia
3B Mike Lowell
SS Nick Green
LF Jason Bay
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
RF J.D. Drew
DH David Ortiz
Fun fact: we may get to see Jonathan Van Every this series.
And since this is as good as anywhere to talk about playoff odds. Right now, BP has us at 29%, that seems bad, especially in light of the Red Sox 73% and 72%, but I found this amusing. Here are the rest of the AL playoff odds:
Tigers 42%
Mariners 35%
Athletics 32%
Tampa 29%
Angels 27%
Indians 22%
That's it for teams over 20%. Despite having a torrid start, the Rays are still thought of as being pretty decent. Of course, given the Yankees and Red Sox divisional placement, this is pretty moot. Just an interesting fact nonetheless.
The projections really aren't that pretty and it's going to take some very good baseball from here on out to make the playoffs instead of finishing in third place. We all know this team is not as bad as it's playing right now and the most frustrating part is that none of these struggles seem preventable. This is not a miscalculation on Stuart Sternberg, Matthew Silverman, Andrew Friedman, James Click, or Joe Maddon's part. It's just a team-wide depression, and at some point it's going to end.
May as well be tonight.
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Under normal circumstances I would say we have 3 out of 4 pitching matchup advantages
But I don’t like “no hit” Wakefield. It’s about time for one of his 4 IP 11 ER outings.
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions
Reminder
He hasn’t pitched in a dome yet this year.
AC/DC + Tampa Bay Rays = Big Balls on a Budget
by Orlando Rays on Apr 30, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Alsok you either used "torrid" sarcastically or you don't know what it means
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions
I am predicting 0-4
The team is playing boring uninspired baseball right now. What happened to heart and hustle.
I have seen little leaguers take better swings than some of these guys lately. I have also seen more plate discipline than some of them as well and you never know which pitcher is going to show up that night.
The sense of urgency isn’t there they are not playing with the same chip they had on their shoulder last year. Something needs to happen this series … There needs to be a fight.
Reminder: The 4/30 game is also on MLB Network for those not in Rays territory
AC/DC + Tampa Bay Rays = Big Balls on a Budget
Can stand Boston.
I hate the Boston Red Sox more then I hate the New York Yankees. Go Rays! Beat the hell out of the Sox.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Apr 30, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions
It wouldn't hurt
to have the same lineup a few games in a row. With Zobs being a switchy, there is no need to change the lineup. Now, that being said, I would have no problem with BJ moving down a bit and maybe running with last years batting order? Maybe not… But what is pissing me off the most… is the fact that it seems that nobody has any idea what the siuation is when they get up to bat. Especially Navi. I can remember 3 particular instances where he is not focusing on his job as a hitter. I am a firm believer that small ball leads to long ball. So when we are moving runners around, the pitches get better. Longo had terrible at bats last night and it seems he is pressing and trying to carry the team. I think Maddon needs to coach a little bit better as well. This resting players and playing for the big inning crap has to go. We need to win innings. If they would focus on winning each inning, one inning at a time, they will win alot more than they lose. But to me, they aren’t playing smart at all. Bad baserunning, bad defense, bad situational hitting, bad coaching. A fight might not be a bad idea pewter…lol
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
when a team is struggling
small ball is effective. It is not a new concept and it is proven to work. It is definately not a “bad baseball” to play small ball.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Not playing small ball is proven to work as well.
On such teams as the 2008 Rays.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Who's going to play small ball anyway?
The only guy struggling in such a way that makes you even len towards the idea is Navarro… who, you know, can’t run.
BJ’s still working out his timing (while walking and not striking out any worse than he used to), and Carl’s turned it around. Pena and Burrell shouldn’t ever drop the bat, Longo’s hitting well enough, Aki and Barty have been hitting, Zobrist is going balls deep… what’s the point in playing small ball when your offense could conceivably turn on at any point?
I’m pro-life when it comes to outs.
I have no idea.
This team isn’t built for any type of small ball outside of stealing bases.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
We don't need "small ball"
In terms of bunting. But we need to start moving runners over and having generally productive outs. Runners not scoring when they are on 3rd with less than 2 outs just isn’t forgiveable. The runner needs to understand baseball (AYBAR) and we need to have the ability to either get a hit, hit the ball in the air far enough, or a ground ball to SS or 2B. Those are plenty of options for our hitters. They should be able to do one of those things.
Sigh.
Our offense is playing so bad that we’re actually worried over “productive” outs. Fantastic.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh we've been worried about this since last year
We shouldn’t be so short sighted not to see our faults from last year. And a huge fault was not scoring runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs. We sucked at it last year and we really suck at it this year. It is even more important considering we are having trouble scoring. I’m not suggesting that we “give up” any outs, but rather we adjust our approach to match the value of each outcome given the changing scenario.
We really weren't that bad last year.
We were near the top of the league in isolated power and on-base percentage. Our batting average as a team was low, but we scored plenty of runs.
I'd argue that changing your approach to better suit the new values of each outcome given each situation is a skill
Either way does it matter what we call it?
A batter must adjust his approach given the situation. You cannot treat the AB the same if you leading off the 1st inning compared to hitting in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game with a runner on 3rd and 1 out. The values of each batting outcome has changed dramatically and their approach must reflect that.
Do we really believe that players can control where the ball goes?
There’s a lot more luck involved in baseball than we seem to think.
Yes, batters can change their approach (choke up on the bat to fight off pitches, alter their swing to hit a fly ball) but at the end of the day, they have to see the pitch and make good contact. Where it goes, nobody knows.
That slight change does alter the probability of those outcomes
Which would better suit the win/run values of those outcomes. Of course the batter may still strike out .
to a point
but these are professionals and alot of them can directionally hit. I was taught that in little league. Luck has it’s part but so does skill. Besides, I see players directionally hit all the time.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
which comes down to recognizing a pitch and having a good swing.
And a number of other factors: the pitcher, the velocity of the pitch, the type of pitch, where the batter makes contact, who is in the outfield/infield and where those fielders are located.
Again, a whole lot of luck involved.
Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but you can hold left on the controller and influence the hit to go left.
Same with right.
QED
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Of course there is some luck
But you make your own luck.
A batter needs to recognize that with a runner on 3rd and 1 out that a FB is much more valuable. A GB up the middle is far more valuable. A single is far more valuable. A Strikeout is much much worse. So what can he do to take advantage of such a situation? If the infield is playing back he can make a conscious effort to hit the ball from left center to right center…air or ground. Definitely focus on not striking out by perhaps choking up at some point in the at bat.
All things that the batter DOES control to increase his probability of success.
All a hitter or pitcher can do is the best they can to increase their probability of success. Even if you have a 99% chance of success you still are going to fail. But you guys are making it seem like just because there is a chance at failure that they might as well give up on the process that results in the most successes?
You're acting like the Rays don't understand this, though.
They do. They’re just not executing. There’s no other way to paint the situation.
The front office does...
I’m not sure the players do. Or at least are not properly adjusting.
We have problems running the bases. Same story just a different angle.
Maddon certainly understands this. You can tell by the way he employs his shifts. He understands when certain outcomes have a change in their typical run value.
this isn't a new philosophy
and it does work. A productive out is better than an unproductive out, which is what we are doing now.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Let's see.
Using the handy Run Expectancy chart.
Runner on second, nobody out: 1.08
Runner on third, one out: 0.98
Runner on second, one out: 0.77
Runner on third, two outs: 0.45
So yeah, “moving runners” != “helping score runs”.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
By your numbers
it shows a runner at 3rd with 1 out is more ikely to score than a runner at 3rd with 2 outs.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
exactly
but they aren’t doing it.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Um, you're dead wrong.
3 lt 2 out: .379/.405/.759 (61% better than league average)
_2 out .190/.346/.429 (15% worse than league average)
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
What about from 3rd to home?
That is the one we fail at.
I definitely agree with you
We should never sacrifice an out. However we do need to alter our approach when something such as a FB has a far higher run value than usual.
Man on 1st and 1 out is certainly not a time to adjust much of anything though…
I haven't checked as of late.
But our FB% was unsustainable. Teams don’t go through an entire season hitting 50% flyballs.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
"Such as a FB"
Doesn’t FB mean flyball?
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm specifically talking about a runner on 3rd and zero or 1 out though
team-wide averages just aren’t relevant to such a scenario
We aren't having an issue with __3, lt 2 outs.
You people are imagining that.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree,,,
Last night, Burrell led off the 2nd with a double. Zobs grounds out to SS and Burrell advances to 3rd. Navi pops up to the 3rd base side. Not the 1st base side, but 3rd. Am I imagining that?
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
That's because Navi HAD a bad swing.
I’m sure Navi would have loved to put that in play. But, he’s a fucking black hole in the lineup right now. With only one out, why is Navi not going to try and hit the ball?
He did put it in play.
I would rather him fly out to the 1st basemen, at least then I would know he was trying to go the opposite way and bring in a run.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Congratulations for placing emphasis on one event in face of factual evidence
To suggest otherwise.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
Congratulations for placing emphasis on one event in face of factual evidence To suggest otherwise.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Factual evidence says we're not having issues in that situation.
You replied with one event. Apparently that one event has been the outlier this season for the Rays.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Maddon actually brought this up during the season last year
It is not an isolated event. We have seriously trouble getting guys in on 3rd with less than 2 outs.
"Last year".
That’s not what we’re discussing.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Joe also walked Josh Hamilton home in a hideously dumb idea that worked out for him.
Joe’s the man, but let’s not pretend he’s infallible.
Perhaps you’ve noticed Joe hasn’t exactly been freaking out about our performance?
you say it better than me.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Apparently not playing small ball isn't working either
And simply because a guy is hitting ok doesn’t mean that small ball shouldn’t be used. Our team is built perfectly for it. Speed at the front and back of the lineup. I don’t mean to imply we should play small ball all the time and all game. But there are scenarios when say last night Burrell led off the 2nd with a double. Obviously Navi is struggling and we need a run to get on the board. He doesn’t even have to bunt but damn it man move the runner over to 3rd. But he doesn’t, and hasn’t yet this season. We are leaving way to many runners on base and I think we should be trying to manufacture a few here and there. I don’t want to take the bat out of Longo, Pena or Burrells hands, but when we need to move guys over and score a run, small ball works. Zobrist is going balls deep when he is on the field and the point of playing small is to supplement the power, not take the place of. And our offense could turn itself around, or it could not. I am not for giving up outs for nothing, but if it means moving a runner over and get them to 3rd with one out and a struggling hitter up, drop a bunt.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Maybe I don't have the same understanding of "small ball" that you do.
I always it was employing bunts and hit & runs. You say Navi doesn’t have to bunt, so you’re suggesting that Burrell start on a hit and run? That seems really really stupid. “Small ball” with our current baserunning “prowess” is about as abominable and idea as I can think of. We really need all of our outs, and putting the players in position to sacrifice those outs is a terrible idea.
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Small ball
can be a bunt but doesn’t have to be. We can manufacture runs andnot count on a string of hits all the time. Move runners into scoring position so that a sac fly can score them or if a runner is at 2nd, make sure you hit the ball the right side. It is simple baseball that they are not doing.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
They ARE doing these things, though.
We’re stealing bases. We run aggressively.
Playing “small ball” isn’t going to help us anymore than it all ready has. At the end of the day, it comes down to seeing the ball and fucking hitting it.
We are watching 2 different teams then
because steaing to get in scoring position is great, bu when our guys can’t situationally hit, it really doesn’t help. We aren’t stealing home!!! When a guy is at third with 1 out, the hitters main goal should be a sac fly at the least. Instead, I see guys striking out or grounding ou to 3rd or going for the fences.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
If you think they aren't trying to situationally hit I don't know what to tell you
Every guy knows what he needs to do in an AB. The pitcher knows exactly what he needs to do as well and isn’t going to make it easy. For example, on 3rd 1 out, of course the batter knows he needs to take out the loft wedge. The pitcher is going to be sure to keep the ball down. Right now it seems like we are getting 100% focus from pitchers and they are hitting their spots. We have a good lineup and eventually we will start taking advantage of mistakes.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
If they are trying to situational hit
it doesn’t show. It’s common sense baseball. Nothing too drastic. But if we are leaving this many runners on base, that means that they aren’t situational hitting. If we are hitting in front of runners instead of behind them, they aren’t situational hitting. And If they are trying for big inning every inning, then they aren’t situationally hitting. So I don’t know what to tell you. It is not going on.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
But if we are leaving this many runners on base, that means that they aren’t situational hitting.
I don’t see the causation here. If you could show me some numbers that might help, but I don’t see how you can make the assumption that because men are LOB then we aren’t situationally hitting.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
1) Bunting is a terrible idea 99% of the time
2) Hitters aren’t up at the plate purposely trying to not score runs. I’m sure they are going up to the plate with a runner on 3rd and 1 or 0 outs and trying to hit a sac fly. It’s not always under their control
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Who's control is it under then?
And bunting is a lost art that speedsters should learn i.e. Crawford.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
IT'S CALLED LUCK.
RANDOMNESS.
THE BALL GOES OFF THE BAT THE WRONG WAY, IT’S HIT HARD AND GOES IT TO SOMEONE’S HAND, THE BALL GOES BARELY FOUL, SOMEONE STRIKES THEM OUT WITH A NASTY PITCH.
These things happen.
You are misunderstanding me
I understand there is luck but we aren’t not scoring runs because we ae unlucky. We aren’t failing at baserunning because of luck. If a player should be looking to go to the right side and he fouls the ball down the left field line, thats not bad luck or a bad break. That is a lack knowledge of the situation.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
we're not scoring because our team OBP .334, which is near the bottom of the league.
When your number one hitter is having terrible luck (.217 or so BABIP), your number two hitter was previously being terribly hacky and impatient (this has improved recently), and your number five hitter isn’t hitting home runs, you’re going to have problems scoring, no matter what the situation is.
This isn’t about philosophy. It’s about execution and the nature of fucking baseball. Look at the Yankees. Do you really think Texeria’s gonna hit that poorly all year long?
Excuses are assholes
Unlucky this and the number 5 not hitting homeruns that… Youare right about one thing, it is about execution, and we are piss poor at it right now. And as far as Tex sucking all year, I hope so.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Obviously the Rays need to decide to hit better
They should choose to bloom singles in front of outfielders, and spray the ball between the 2nd and 1st basemen.
If only they weren’t so lazy…
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
You make it sound like guys can't hit it where they want
Players are doing it every game.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
I really don't know how to respond to this. Why don't all players have 1.000 BAs then?
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Are fucking serious?
Are you really asking that question?
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
It's no dumber than your arguments thus far
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
You make it sound like guys can’t hit it where they want
If they could hit it where they want, why doesn’t everyone have a 1.000 BA?
Please take your ridiculously spurious logic back to whatever libertarian forums your normally post on.
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL...
You are seriously not getting what I am saying.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Please tell me how I'm misinterpreting
You make it sound like guys can’t hit it where they want
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Xavier Nady.
Career .280-.290 hitter… last year for the first half of the season he hit .344. Did he suddenly learn how to guide his hits better?
Of course not. He was getting a little help from the BABIP God. His BABIP during the first half the year .367, way above his career BABIP of .317. Upon joining the Yankees, his batting average dropped to .268, as his BABIP dropped to .292. Beyond that, nothing changed for Xavier Nady: strikeouts and walks were about the same.
Hitting the ball requires help.
When did I say that?
I said they can adjust their probabilities slightly from their typical norm.
When did I say they can always get a hit?
Christ have you ever picked up a baseball bat? Do you realize that yes you can change some things to help hit the ball in the air? Or put the ball on the ground? Or you can choke up to make contact more often?
Seriously go play in a softball league and try it out. Hitters can do such a thing. It does change their probabilities.
Francisco Liriano doesn't pitch in my softball league.
So, it’s not exactly a good comparison, is it?
I give up!
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Dude
I really hope so. because I love the Rays, it’s just frustrating to watch us leave runners on base without playing sound baseball. If we were playing good smart baseball and still losing, I would be fine and confident it will turn around.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
I feel better knowing we've played like absolute dog shit so far
and baseball tends to operate, it will improve.
Unless everybody has completely turned to shit over night, which is unlikely when you look at the rate metrics. Other than Navarro, who has been a black hole.
And you aren't Evan Longoria
But seriously if you do not think a hitter can do things to reduce his K rate by a couple %, increase/decrease his FB or GB by a couple %, then I dunno what to tell you.
Those probabilities are not static. They change based upon the pitcher. They change based upon the pitches thrown. They change based upon the approach the batter takes.
You guys are applying the average of all those situation to each individual situation. That is wrong. It is a good benchmark, but each situation is not the average. The average is being made up of all these different situations.
And over a small sample size it doesn't matter
If you raise your FB from 30 to 40% you’re still going to not hit a FB 60% of the time. How many of these situations does each player have?
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm willing to bet my life....
That over an extremely large MLB sample size (over the same time period) that the K% for MLB hitters will be lower in a runner on 3rd less than 2 outs scenario than a nobody on base 2 outs scenario. The only variable given the sample size is the scenario. I’d bet my marbles that league-wide K% would be lower. Why? Batters change their approach.
Well it shouldn't be hard to find the data and I would love to read it
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't have the 2 outs nobody on data.
And this is a small sample size, but the Rays with nobody on K about 21%, with lt 2 outs, runner on third: 19%.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m sure they’d strike out more nobody on and 2 outs also.
Either way I think batters can change their approach. I’m not talking about taking a K% from 20 to 5. I’m talking about slight changes here and there to better match the scenario.
Um, of course they can change their approach.
If you swing the first pitch every time, you probably will never strikeout.
That’s not going to wind up with many hits or walks though.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course
Many people here were making it sound like the batter cannot change his approach in order to change their average outcomes. I just think it is insane for a hitter not to change their approach when the value of a FB goes way up while the value of a K gets signficiantly worse.
Anyways we can just leave it at our hitters need to aim better and save and accumulate power. In other words Navi needs to strike out about 10 times in a row to accumulate enough power to hit 1 ball over the fence.
I don't think anyone was making the argument
that players cannot and do not change their approach.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
That's really not what anyone is saying.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Really seemed that was the argument Sutree and Top Gun were making
Either way it doesn’t matter.
The key to us winning is Balfour cursing. He hasn’t been pissed off yet. Someone needs to screw his gf/wife. That’ll bring the Ws.
And I have my new theory on why BJ can’t see the ball properly. Last year it was his eyes. This year it is because he is dizzy from all that tobacco he chews. I can’t hit a beach ball after a big dip. I have no idea how BJ can hit a slider.
More like black splatter
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually dip a fair amount. Nothing too crazy, but maybe a can every few weeks
Anyways for the first time in my life I chewed tobacco while playing softball. It was no coincidence it was my first strike out in probably 10000 PAs.
Congradulations on being white trash
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
so BJ is black trash?
Along with a good # of ballplayers that play past high school?
To be fair I hit the first ball foul
But totally whiffed on the next. I hadn’t swung and missed in quite a few seasons.
Yes
they can.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Too a point
It also requires a lot of skill and hand eye coordination. I don’t expect these guys to come through every time. But we are being out played and at times out smarted.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Situational Hitting=Skill
I’ve never played professional ball, but in high school you practice situational hitting. It doesn’t mean you practice making outs. With a runner on second you can try to hit the ball to the right side of the field without conceding an out. If you can practice it in high school, it can be deemed a skill.
Do you realize that the value of certain outcomes increase and decrease as the situations change?
I understand you guys base your spreadsheets, as you should, on averages. That is fine. But you need to understand that the average isn’t what is true all the time. It isn’t difficult to imagine a scenario in which a single is worth just as much as a HR. Of course a hitter can’t control exactly when he hits a single or a HR. But he can realize a HR isn’t as valuable so a FB isn’t as valuable. He can realize a single is more valuable so a GB is now more valuable. And so forth.
It isn’t really luck.
Each player has a specific skill set and a probability range for each batting outcome. Which happens is not totally random. Some outcomes have a higher probability than others. In a specific scenario a batter can most certainly increase or decrease the probability of a specific outcome. If a batter wanted to reduce his FB% and GB% to zero he most certainly could. He could just not swing. He could change his FB% to very close to zero and raise his GB% by a substantial amount by adjusting his swing to pound the ball into the ground. He could lower his K% by choking up on the bat. All those things are doing is adjusting his probability range of the possible outcomes.
The batter does have control over adjusting his probability range to best suit the values of each outcome given the situation. He does have some control over that.
Just because a batter chokes up doesn’t mean he is NEVER going to strike out. He is going to strike out. He is just going to strike out less than what he normally would have struck out.
You make it sound like everyone is just mashing the power drive button.
Coaches coach, players play, spectators spectate
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I expect the Rays to maximize their abilities
Being cerebral and mathematical is a part of it. You guys are all about the front office doing it. Why can’t the players do it also?
No, I am saying weren't playing smart baseball.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
How do you figure?
Show me some numbers involving a large population and not just one or two instances that you saw happen. This comes back to game theory and what truly makes baseball great. If you’re trying to hit to the right side and the pitcher is only throwing you in to counter that, wouldn’t the smart player try to turn on a pitch that he knows will be trying to jam him?
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, it would...
if that were the case, but then you would have worked the count and you had no choice but to just try and put it in play. Like, I said, I don’t expect guys to come through every time. But if we can’t manufacture runs and play some small ball, we will not get any better. Just my opinion.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
You're just throwing out cliched terms when you say manufacture and small ball
That’s all great if all you read is the Tribune and watch 10 games a year, but all they are is cliches.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
have you ever actually ever stepped on a field?
Don’t be pompous and think you are the only one who knows baseball.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Ahahahahaha There's no way this guy isn't baiting you.
“have you ever actually stepped on a field?”
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL..
A few times yes… pops.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
I wasn't referencing you.
I don’t really care if you have. It doesn’t make much of a difference. If any of us were that good at playing baseball we wouldn’t be on this site, we would be in the minors.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
very true
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
I don't understand why people ever use that line.
Obviously we all love baseball and have played it at some point or another.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Not me, I'm a quadropolegic
And I hate baseball
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I play baseball all the time, when I'm not having sex with multiple models
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
sounds like you have it made.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Well, I am black
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think I'm half black
the lower half
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously I had my white costume on when I met you
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Have you?
Spout cliches, back them up with personal attacks, and sidetrack the conversation. If you want to present to me empirical evidence that what you say is true, then please do so, if not cut the shit.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL..
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
I'm still arguing that baseball players should decide when they want to hit bloop singles and do it.
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Ichiro can hit a homerun when he feels like it.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I SAW IT IN BP!
He’ll have 30 saves this year
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously. He has captain powers.
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
According to TGN
no he can’t. No one can.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
You are being to hard on yourself
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Juan Pierre is the only player man enough to do it.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Every time he's up
Juan “Situational Hitting” Pierre
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
He started shortening it a couple of years ago
Juan “shitting” Pierre
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
/accidentally takes walk
/cries
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude
I have played ball, but I have no idea what you mean by my personal attacks or side track of conversations.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
I took offense to you insinuating that I have never stepped on a field
I took it as a personal attack. Perhaps when you played it was pretty easy to hit a FB on command or to the right side of the infield, but it’s a little different in the show, you don’t just do whatever you want, whenever you want. You set yourself up for success with good processes and if it doesn’t work out it doesn’t work out. Outside of Navi I have no complaints about how guys are handling situational AB’s.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I apologize, no offense intended.
However, I did play four years in college and I was a pitcher. I know it’s not the pros, but I do know about situational hitting and hitting to one side or the other can and should be done.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
And how many times did you situationally pitch
and manage to defeat a batters attempts? I’m just saying that even when you go for “productive” outs the pitcher is still favored to win.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I have not debated that point
What I am arguing is that I don’t see our guys doing any kind of situational hitting. I realize that it won’t work out to our advantage every time, but when was the last time you saw a guy try and push the ball to the right side with a runner on 2nd?
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
The last time I saw a guy try to push a guy over and fail
I couldn’t tell you since I’m not a mind reader
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Lucky for you
I am a mind reader.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Apparently not often enough
And how many times did you situationally pitch and manage to defeat a batters attempts?
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Don't recall those A's teams playing a lot of small ball
while they made the playoffs year in year out. Having a shitty defense cost them in the playoffs, but not in getting there.
The braves played smallball when the needed to and they won 13 dividsion titles
Pros and cons.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
If by play small ball you mean got some of the most consistantly great pitching in baseball history, then yes.
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
nice
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
And if by play small ball you mean were incapable of scoring runs in a short series (hence the genral playoff futility)
Then yes to that also
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair.
The playoffs are a crapshoot.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
SMALL BALL BITCH LIVE IT
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Better than the Rays heh?
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Yes, the Braves of the 90s were a better team than the Rays.
GROUND BREAKING INSIGHT
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
you're quickly becoming one of my fav. posters on this site.
Helps that Kericr up and vanished.
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base."
~Dave Barry
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 30, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
He's too busy building rocket ships and harvesting souls
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
He still has the lead though
TGN1 gets -.5 pts for being black.
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base."
~Dave Barry
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 30, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
The Rays don't have three future hall of famers in their rotation.
What the fuck type of comment is this? Hey, the 1927 Yankees were better than the Rays too.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
If by small ball you mean they had outstanding pitching then sure
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
They had to score runs right?
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Don't forget the Big Cat
Andres Galarraga!
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base."
~Dave Barry
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 30, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
David Berry Fucking Justice
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
There all a bunch of Juicers
The Braves legacy is tarnished by Justice
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
SID MUTHA FUCKIN BREAM
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base."
~Dave Barry
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 30, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
juicer
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 30, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I loved sid bream
the man had crazy speed.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
So is giving away runs.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
ARG WE JUST NEED TO GET IN A FIGHT THEN WE'LL PLAY BETTER
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions
That would be arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
I’m charlie brown
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 30, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Am I missing something with the pitching matchups or do they suggest we are skipping Shields?
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base."
~Dave Barry
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 30, 2009 2:55 PM EDT reply actions
Error on my part, I was looking at Eaton/Kazmir for Monday.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 30, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
No
interest in those tickets I assume?
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base."
~Dave Barry
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 30, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Players generall know how to influence where the ball is hit
I damn sure know BJ knows how to do it as evidenced with the shoulder injury he had last year and he was purposefully hitting everything to the right side.
If you are right handed it is a matter of getting “your” pitch you simply wait for something low and away and open your hips and swing. Blamo … ball goes to right. Batting is not about swinging a stick. It is about pitch recognition and 9/10ths of the time you only have to recognize where it is going to be in the zone.
Major League hitters have been doing it since little league. Hell I am even teaching the team of little leaguers that I coach how to do it. Man on 3rd with less than two outs …. you better believe they know how to hit it on the right side of the diamond.
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