Arguably, the main reason that the Rays were able to contend in 2008 was the presence of acquired and drafted pre-arbitration talent. ALCS MVP? Matt Garza (2.9 wins). OBP leader? Bossman Junior (4.6 wins). Future ace? David Price (not that many wins in 2008 but he did save Game 7 of the ALCS, throw me a bone here). Innings eater? Andy Sonnanstine (3.6 wins). All of these players combined earned less than Carl Pavano in 2008, yet contributed almost 12 wins above replacement to the team. The problem is that many of these players will soon be due for arbitration, and barring any poor performances (another issue in itself), they will be due for some pretty big raises. BJ has already indicated his preference to go "year-to-year" in arbitration, seeking top dollar for his talents. Sonnanstine and Garza are both up for arbitration after this season and will certainly both look for significant raises. Friedman has indicated in his tenure his preference to sign these young stars to below-market, long-term deals that are generally seen as "Club Friendly" (see: Evan Longoria, Jamie Shields, Willy Aybar, Scott Kazmir) in order to control costs. The problem is that a player of Upton's caliber could command anywhere from $3 to $8+ million in his FIRST year of arbitration, and if BJ posts a 20/20 (or even 30/30) season with a 900+ OPS, he will look for Ryan Howard money.

I just don't see how the Rays will be able to afford Bossman, Garza, Sonnanstine, Price, and several others through the arbitration process. Philly saw a massive increase in payroll this offseason with few additions to the team thanks to the arbitration process, limiting their flexibility in free agency to the point that they couldn't cough up the change to sign an established set-up type like Will Ohman. I don't think Sternberg and company can afford such cost uncertainty, especially in this economic climate.

The Marlins faced similar issues after their WS wins and chose to deal with the issue by dealing away their arb-eligible stars for younger, cheaper talent. The question is the return - will front offices continue to pay big in prospects for arb-eligible guys who command higher, near market-value contracts? I don't think so, and the Rays may face a problem in this area.

To make it simple: trade value is a function of many things, but the four most important factors are cost, production, length of control, and need. Theoretically, at the moment of signing, a free agent carries "0" trade value if he signs with the highest-offering team because he is playing for what he is worth on the market. Conversely, young players signed to team-friendly contracts (Evan and James) are highly valuable because they produce, they are under control for a long time and below market value, and they are on the upswing of their careers.

I would like to see what you guys think will happen to the pre-arb and arb-eligible players: BJ, Garza, Sonnanstine, Price, Bartlett, etc. I, for one, do not think that the Rays will be willing to go year-to-year with high-production guys like BJ and (hopefully) Price. It's therefore my prediction that Sonnanstine will be traded after the end of this year (when he is up for arbitration) and replaced with Davis or Niemann in the rotation. Similarly, I think that BJ will eventually find himself in a new uniform in return for some good hitting prospects and depth in our system.

(By the way, I am still working on the discrete differential simulation project I was talking about earlier. I'm finishing the programming part of it, which I will probably end up posting here in about a couple of days, but I still need a little help with the data side. In particular, I need to be able to produce a "PA log" of the player, meaning all of his PA's from his very first appearance numbered and tied to a specific outcome - 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, SOS, SOL, GO, FO, etc. I asked a little earlier about this and got some help but I'm still looking for a good source of downloadable player data that would include this type of information, specifically the SOS/SOL and GO/FO outcomes. A lot of the data sources only include "out" and "strikeout" as out types rather than breaking them down in this way, so that would be helpful if anyone can give me a link or a tip. Or, if you know of a good way to export game logs/download game logs, specifically in the PA-outcome format, please let me know.)