Evan, Please Strike Out
by rglass44 on Apr 9, 2009 9:39 AM EDT
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PrintLast night, Evan Longoria came to the plate twice with men on first and second once and the bases loaded once. In both instances there were 0 outs. In both instances he preceded to ground into a double-play.
After Carl Crawford's "single," the Rays win expectancy was 69.1%. When Longoria grounded into the double-play, their win-expectancy dropped to 59.3%. Had he struck out, the Rays would have had a 63.1% chance of winning the game. Longoria's GIDP was drastically worse than if he had struck-out.
Longoria's third trip to the dish followed a CC infield single. Once again the young slugger was put in a great position to extend a lead and keep a rally going. With the bases loaded and no one out in the 5th, the Rays should win the game against the Red Sox 79% of the time. Longoria once again GIDP, at least providing one run of benefit this time. The win expectancy still dropped to 73%. Had he merely struck out, the win expectancy would have lied somewhere between the two. The win expectancy estimator has for all games from 1977-2006, has the drop from 82.8% to 81.9% while the GIDP drops it to 80.9%. Thus in all games played over those 30 years, the double play was twice as costly.
As we saw, the Rays went on to win the game anyway (and Longoria helped with a homer and a great defensive play), but Longoria needs to learn to avoid the double play in these situations. They truly are a rally killer. Players like Jim Rice are Hall of Famers because they believed that "putting the ball in play" was there job when there were runners on. Today, we know that merely putting the ball in play can sometimes hurt more than it helps, and it may be better to just keep the bat on your shoulder or just try to put one in the outfield.
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In that situation he just needs to take a mamoth swing.
If he strikes out…ohh well, all great power hitters do it. Just seems like he trys to be to cool at the plate. He takes a relaxed swing while licking his lips cause he know the chicks are watching. Just wail at the bitch and hit it hard.
I'd like to take this opportunity to point out
that there have been 5 articles on the front page since the end of the most recent game. This is great. That is all.
I could be wrong though
But that is not all.
The fact that they’re five quality articles is even greater. I don’t think anything in the “mainstream” media can touch this. Kudos to all.
Here, here!
AC/DC + Tampa Bay Rays = Big Balls on a Budget
by Orlando Rays on Apr 9, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks guys. This is pretty much how we see the whole season going content wise.
Of course as we get larger sample sizes will start to dig into deeper issues, but while every night might not have five articles dedicated to it, I’d say at least 2-3 will be the norm for a while.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 9, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
You guys rock
This site is easily my most visited bookmark.
I also love that the Rays community is so active.
It's my homepage
Now that there’s content going up constantly, the 10-15 visits a day will be increasing to 20-30 for sure
I could be wrong though
A GIDP is the worst outcome and a K is the 2nd worst outcome
And the 3rd worst outcome is far better than all of those (well minus pop out). Evan you have plenty of other options. Why pick the two worst ones consistently the past couple days?
I agree. The value of a GB decreases for those reasons you mentioned. GIDP and the possibility of getting the lead runner out. Pop out and a K are equally bad. The value of a FB increases. And of course any hit is always good.
In such a situation for Evan I’d do the “Jack Cust” thing for the first two strikes, and then I’d do whatever it took to put the ball in play on the 3rd strike. The odds of a GB turning into a GIDP is small enough that he shouldn’t avoid a ground ball at all costs. I’m just guessing here but I think its safe to assume that a GB in such a scenario even with a league average GIDP on ground balls (as well as league average on singles and fielders choice) would still be far more valuable than a strike out.
Well the hitter should most definitely put the ball in play
The K is the absolute worst option. Sure the GIDP is worse, but thats getting a bit specific with the result of a ground ball. Plenty of other goodies will happen. Kind of like saying well he shouldn’t hit a fly ball cause the runner may get tossed out going home. I’m not saying you are implying it, but thats kind of the premise of this entire thread (of course it is done somewhat jokingly). Obviously the situation dictates if he should swing for the fence or not. In most cases I don’t mind if the hitters swings for the fence in a 3+ RBI opportunity at least once. Sometimes twice. As long as they are able to properly adjust their approach to drop their K rate on the 2nd or 3rd strike…
Of course putting the ball in play is preferred to striking out even with noone on base
The spread gets wider with more men on base though.
Of course I am assuming that...
That a hitter can consciously adjust his approach and his swing within an at bat (or at bat to at bat) to significantly change the probability of him hitting a FB, GB, or Striking Out.
I think they certainly can, but that is an assumption I am making.
You are missing the point.
No one tries for the K, just as noone tries for the GIDP. The point is the GB is the worst outcome. You are far more likely to hurt your team than help it in that situation with a groundball. The best bet is to use the approach that a K is fine, but go up there looking to walk or hit the ball in the air (or K if it comes down to it). With 2 strikes, the K is not the worst case, the GIDP is, and the likelihood of a GIDP is higher than a positive outcome. What good can come from a grounder? With men on first and second, a grounder can do 5 things:
1. GIDP (two ways)
2. out at third
3. out at second
4. out at first
5.error
The possibility of the error is about that of the GIDP getting the two lead runners so we’ll dismiss those. We now have 4 possible outcomes. I’d assume they rank in likelihood in the following order: 4 (35%), 1(30%), 3 (20%), and 2 (15%). The run expectancy for getting a groundball (this doesn’t include him swinging and missing on it or getting a GB for a hit) is -.55.
If we do the same exrecise with swinging for the fences we’ll use these odds:
K 75.0%
BB 5.0%
FO (advance) 7.5%
FO (no advance) 7.5%
single 3.0%
double 1.5%
homer 0.5%
The run expectancy is -.33
This implies that actually getting a groundout is more harmful then swinging for the fences.
You do realize that some grounders actually go through the infield for a single right?
Then what about if the bases are loaded? What exactly is the GIDP% of ground balls hit (including ones that go through the infield) when there are runners on base? You are drastically overestimating double plays while discounting singles totally.
And frankly if a player K’s 75% of the time swinging for the fences then he needs to adjust his approach. Or quit baseball. That is frankly rediculous. Christ Carlos Pena essentially fits the “swinging for the fence” type nearly every AB and he doesn’t strike out anywhere close to 75% of the time.
I mean look at your percentages. So you say a guy trying to hit the ball hard in the air hits a home run 1 out of 200 at bats, but k’s 150 times in 200 at bats? That doesn’t make much sense…..
If you have to exaggerate your numbers that far to prove your point then perhaps you have no point? It seems you are making up numbers to fit your argument. Then you pawn off your “run expectancy” numbers like they hold any validity. Yes you are right. When Evan Longoria comes up to bat trying to hit the ball in the air he suddenly gets the power of Jason Bartlett and the contact ability of a high school kid facing a major leaguer. Way to prove your point….
Before we can even start having a legitimate discussion we need to get numbers that are somewhat realistic. What is the GIDP% on a ground ball with the bases loaded, runner on 1st/2nd, runner on 1st? What is the single% on a GB under those same three conditions? What is the FC% in those three conditions? What is the % of grounders in those scenarios where just the batter gets out? Quite clearly we have very large disagreement on GIDP and Singles. I think the GIDP percentage is far less than you do and I think the Single% is far higher than you do (you totally forgot it).
If a batter hits a ground ball with the bases loaded and they get the absolute lead runner then what happens? Bases will still be loaded with 1 out. The EXACT same scenario as a K. If they get the guy going from 2nd to 3rd, but the run scores then you are far better off. There is no way you can say 1st and 2nd with 1 out with 1 run in is worse than bases loaded with no runs in and 1 out.
Frankly the only GB outcome that harms you is GIDP. One other is the exact same as a K. And all others are better than a K. I can’t imagine the GIDP rate being that high (you said Pena is what 6 in 600 PAs last year) to tip the scales in favor of a K.
I think you are way off and I really don’t think its close. But if those GIDP rates in those scenarios are really that high then I’ll defer to you.
*ahem*
Pot, I’d like you to meet my friend, the kettle.
Check out my blog on web development at kericr.wordpress.com
Don't worry I'm going to use the ACTUAL numbers which will show a BIGGER disparity.
I can’t believe I’m wasting my time with this fool again.
Hahaha go for it kiddo. Even one of your butt buddies would have called you out on this total bullshit you are pulling here.
In this thread you’ve gone from:
50% K probability and 50% GIDP probability, implies 100% of GB turns into GIDPs
Then you go from that ridiculous assertion to 75% K rates and .5% HR rates for players trying to hit the ball hard in the air. Yeah that makes you look real smart.
Why even post such ridiculous bullshit? Do you just have to somehow contribute?
YOU ARE AN IDIOT
The high K numbers were because I WAS SHOWING YOU THAT EVEN IF HE Ks A TON IT’s STILL BETTER.
You are a dumbass.
Kiddo?
Give me a break you dumbass.
Let’s see you present a cogent argument using anything but your hatred for Ks. Your folklore arguments hold no water. Now suck a dick and go home.
Sorry.
It’s just like the third time this week he argues BS arguments with no facts, then makes personal attacks.
Honestly if you scroll up it is quite easily seen who made the first personal attack
It definitely wasn’t me. But anywho.
This isn't stopping.
Seriously. I don’t care who started it, there’s no punishment happening, just stop. I’m not going to waste my time dishing out warnings to regulars over something this silly. Just chill.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 9, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
W/E
Hahaha go for it kiddo. Even one of your butt buddies would have called you out on this total bullshit you are pulling here.
???
Why don’t you address the numbers that you wanted so bad? If you dispute them, then figure them out yourself and prepare a logical argument. I’d be glad to discuss the numbers with you, but you offer none. You offer BS criticism w/o facts.
It is kind of sad
There are plenty of smart guys on this site that use numbers properly. They are very informative. Then you post this BS. OMFG IT IS BETTER TO K THAN HIT A GIDP. Whoa ground breaking stuff. Whats next? It is better to hit a HR than a GB? Whoa I would have never guessed.
But even on a serious note the fact that you bring up GIDP is an actual outcome is ridiculous and flies in the face of what everyone else on this site does. It is ONE thing that happens when a ground ball is hit. There is quite a few others. That is like saying a FB = HR and nothing else. It is just ridiculous.
Quit being dense.
That’s not what I said originally, and I didn’t feel like spending an hour running ACTUAL numbers. SO, I ballparked them hugely in your favor.
I saw you posted numbers below. Where did you get numbers based upon swinging for the fence and not? RJ asked me to calm down so I’ll go do something else for a bit and respond later. However one thing I think there may be a bit of a misunderstanding on my argument. I’m just saying it is better to hit a GB than a K in a runner(s) on base scenario. I’ll take the chance that some ground balls turns into DPs. That was my argument. It was probably lost somewhere in the thick of things. Anyways I’ll look at your numbers later today. Deal?
My bad
I know what you were saying, and my point was never doesn anyone just K on purpose. The better bet wqas to be very selective, and get a pitch to get in the air. Do everything in your power to get the ball in the air. I’ll post my methods below.
Fair enough
My swing for the fence thing was more on just a play on the whole “Jack Cust” thing. I’m far more concerned about lowering K rates in those scenarios than dramatically shifting the weights of GB, FB, LD percentages. You are correct about nobody trying to strike out. But I do think players have the ability to adjust their approach and swing to dramatically reduce their strike outs. Of course that has certain adverse affects on what happens after the ball hits the bat.
Im not perfect
I also don’t post on the front page. And there is a big difference between realistic estimations that are somewhat defendable and just total bullshit.
He posted a 75% K rate and a .5% home run rate for a player that is actually trying to hit the ball high and far. That is just not within the realm of possibility. Its an unknowable number, but come on. Would it have hurt him to at least try to be somewhat right? It would be equivalent to me posting there is a 100% chance of hitting a HR. It is just total BS. Just a good faith attempt at being somewhat accurate is all I ask. Thats not too much is it?
You are a dumbass
Those numbers were worst-case scenario for YOUR point-of-view. I have better things to do than figure the actual numbers (well I guess I don’t because I did it).
Here it is:
First here is the run expectancy with the actual numbers for swinging for a GB:
Single 25.0% 2.417 0.84 0.21
x23 16.0% 1.467 -0.11 -0.02
K 15.2% 0.971 -0.60 -0.09
12x 15.0% 0.971 -0.60 -0.09
1×3 15.0% 1.243 -0.33 -0.05
GIDP 13.0% 0.387 -1.19 -0.15
Double 0.8% 3.052 1.48 0.01
-0.18
Now the same for swinging for the flyball/fences:
K 30.0% 0.971 -0.60 -0.18
FO (advance) 23.1% 0.971 -0.60 -0.14
FO (Don’t) 23.1% 1.467 -0.11 -0.02
BB 10.0% 2.417 0.84 0.08
HR 9.6% 3.555 1.98 0.19
2B 2.7% 1 -0.57 -0.02
1B 1.4% 2.417 0.84 0.01
-0.07
Methodology:
Start with going for grounders.
Single: (25%): B-Ref splits singles on GB in play*BIP%
x23: most likely GB-out
K: His career K% is 25%, and I adjusted it down to reflect his “protecting” the plate
12x: second most likely GB-out
1×3: third most likely GB out
GIDP (13%): Found PA w/ man on first and multiplied by GB% to get an estimate for GB w/ man on first. Dividied GIDP by that number.
2B: (.8%): number of doubles on GBIP.
Now for FB:
K (30%): career number adjusted up
FO adv. (23.1%): FBIP-H/2 (FO%/2 to split runners advancing/not advancing) then multiplied by .6 because 40% no ball put in play.
FO no adv. (23.1%): see above
BB (10%): career BB% adjusted up just a little
HR (9.6%): HR/FB*.6 (homeruns on flyballs divided by FB multiplied by percent of time ball is in play)
2B (2.7%): same as above
1B (1.4%): same as above
Love the Rays, but i have to ask
‘will they set a MLB record for strikeouts this season’?
I'm pretty sure the Diamond Backs still play in the mlb. No chance.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 9, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Arizona can use all of the power generated by those windmills to run the state energy grid for 5 years.
Too bad they’re all republican and hate the environment
Check out my blog on web development at kericr.wordpress.com
The Democrats would demand they shut them down because they kill birds
Oh wait, Randy’s in San Francisco now.
AC/DC + Tampa Bay Rays = Big Balls on a Budget
by Orlando Rays on Apr 9, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
If it isn't my old nemesis, a baseball!
Check out my blog on web development at kericr.wordpress.com
Republicans don't hate the enviorment...
they just don’t exploit it for a profit.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Just snicker at the joke or contribute by piling on or countering, don't actually debate the point.
Check out my blog on web development at kericr.wordpress.com
NM, I didn't read it right the first time.
Check out my blog on web development at kericr.wordpress.com
Don't forget the Phightin' Phils
AC/DC + Tampa Bay Rays = Big Balls on a Budget
by Orlando Rays on Apr 9, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree...
With some here saying Evan should have struck out or popped up would have been better than his double play that scored a run. Why it is true, a sac fly to the outfield would have been better than the DP, none of us could know that Pena was going to go yard. He did K his first 5 at bats so… I think Evan did the best thing by putting the ball in play and avoiding a strike out where a double play would have ended the inning. Instead, he setup the homer for Pena.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Run expectancy
With 0 out and the bases loaded, a league average offense against a league average defense has a run expectancy for the inning of 2.417. With the bases loaded and 1 out (the result of a K), the team can expect to score 1.65 runs that inning. The K essentially cost you .767 runs. A double play that scores a run, leaves a man on third with two outs which provides a run expectancy of .387. If you add the 1 run that scored the run expectancy is 1.387 which means it is a net loss of 1.03 in runs expected. The difference between the K and the GIDP was .263. The K is generally better.
I understand
what you are aying and that you like to use numbers and statistics and what not, but I have to be honest, I suck with numbers and statistics. I am looking at it from a simplistic view. He had bases loaded 0 outs. A ground ball produces a run and results in a probable double play. If he strikes out with the same scenario, being Pena has struck out his 1st 5 at bats, I wouldn’t assume he about to break out and drive one over the center field wall. He is a prime candidate for a double play as well. SO so now you would have bases loaded 1 out after a Longo K with Pena up. Your odds I would have to think haven’t improved on scoring a run, instead they have declined. Your thinking it would have been better for Longo to strike out would decrease the chances of scoring a run in the inning.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
My qualms
A ground ball produces a run and results in a probable double play. If he strikes out with the same scenario, being Pena has struck out his 1st 5 at bats, I wouldn’t assume he about to break out and drive one over the center field wall. He is a prime candidate for a double play as well. SO so now you would have bases loaded 1 out after a Longo K with Pena up.
In 607 PAs last year Pena GIDP just 6 times, so no he is not prone to the GIDP. He also walked in 96 PA, so there is a 16% a run scores via the walk. Yes he is prone to the K, so there is a 27% chance Burrell comes up with the bases loaded and 2 outs. Pena also hit 2/3 of his balls in play for fly-balls which score a run with 1 out and the bases loaded, but not with 2 and a man on third. He also hit a homer in 5% of his PAs (which is what he ended up doing). The odds are incredibley high that Pena gets at least that one run in and likely more. Over 162 games, these percentages bare out more often than not.
Apparently I am wrong...
according to your numbers. However, I am in favor of score them when you can. Like I said, I know you base all this on odds and numbers, but base my view on the way the game was going and I had no reason to believe Pena would have done anything other than K. His swings looked awful and Longo had been swinging the bat well. But it all worked out. I am never in favor of striking out, I am a firm believer that if you put the ball in play, you make them get you out.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
So basically you are disproving your point earlier. If a GIDP is extremely unlikely then GBs aren’t nearly as bad as you make them out out to be. It really seems like on one hand you are saying a ground ball with a runner on base results in a GIDP quite a bit and then on the other saying it rarely happens. Can’t have it both ways…
Why it is true
While
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
TMZ is reporting that...
Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Nick Adenhart was killed in a felony hit-and-run car accident in Fullerton, California early this morning — hours after he pitched in a game last night.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
um.
didnt it advance the runner both time last night?
To expand.
The situation will not always be the same, and it’s not like Evan tried hitting a GIDP anyways. If there’s more than one out, the inning ends and no run scores.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 9, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
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