Troy Percival Debuts, Causes Mass Hysteria

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 9, 2009 6:03 PM EDT

I'm willing to give Troy Percival a chance to redeem himself as long as he is forthcoming with his injuries, but holy crap performances like today scare me. 20 pitches, half were balls, and 14 were fastballs that sat around 91 and maxed out at 93. Here's how Percival started the inning:

FA, FA, FA, FA, FA, FA, FA, SL

Here's how his fastball moved:

Percivalfbmov_medium

That's an average h-break of -6.8 and v-break of 10.01. Not awful, but here's the problem, he couldn't control it worth a damn. Below you see the fastball command; a quick count reveals that only four fastballs were within the normalized zone and not near the middle of the plate. Two were right down the middle, a handful of others were in prime hitter locals, and a few were up and in to righties.

Percivalfbcontrol_medium

Percival had to know he didn't have his best command today, and yet he decided to be fastball heavy. That's poor judgment, and frankly that has been the problem with Percival all along.

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I am worried

Especially if its a one-run game, they will blow their share of leads…You can’t win every close game, but geez, its the third game and we are already on pins and needles in just his FIRST appearance? Some will be easy, but I suspect most of his appearances will be just like this one, pretty dicey.

Put Tampa Bay back on our road uniforms!!

by joedobr on Apr 9, 2009 6:11 PM EDT reply actions

Last year, I figured we needed a 3 to four run lead for my heart not to burst when Percival came out

I don’t have the stats, but I think he gave up a lot of home runs for the amount of innings for which he pitched.

I don’t think he should be used in really close games.

by plasticman on Apr 9, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I still have a vision of Matt Stairs...

Dancing in my head…I agree, if he can’t control it with some degree of regularity, than why even BLOW games you can and should have won, FUTURE tense? This is pretty solid empirical evidence that yes, Troy Percival is STILL a big league reliever, but NOT in the role he currently is in. I just hope the Rays are not burned by this.

Put Tampa Bay back on our road uniforms!!

by joedobr on Apr 9, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions

RJ

After today’s performance, does Maddon look at graphs like these? Does he know what’s up, or does the management shy away from making and judgments based on this kind of Data?

by plasticman on Apr 9, 2009 6:11 PM EDT reply actions

I wouldn't advise making any decisions on a few measly data points.

Hopefully this is was the anomaly, not the average.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 9, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm kind of glad I missed the end of the game

I would have flipped out

by mittens on Apr 9, 2009 6:24 PM EDT reply actions

I got to watch it

but when he comes in I just pause the TV and wait until I can fast forward and know the outcome, because like you, I can’t stand his dramatics.

Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation

by CubFanRaysaddict on Apr 9, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

And every ball was hit right on the button...

…except maybe Ellsbury’s flyout.

by fogelberg on Apr 9, 2009 6:31 PM EDT reply actions

Here is my graph of Percival's pitches

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Apr 9, 2009 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 6 recs

and rec'd

by steve-o1285 on Apr 9, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions

by walkoffwalk on Apr 9, 2009 6:42 PM EDT reply actions

That's it in a nutshell

The fact that they WON a big game is a mere footnote to Percival’s self-induced trouble he put himself into! Today is supposed to be a mere aberration, not a norm, and we are lead to believe that this is an aberration? I don’t need a graph to tell me that my heart is jumping in my throat every time Percival is pitching. He clearly teed that pitch to Tek, and he is lucky Ellsbury was searching or else he would have blown the whole thing. Yes, Percival is good, but how much can he rely on mere good fortune?

More often than not, they will probably lose more of those games than they win. Percival must instill confidence and must get command of himself before the whole team behind him get warm fuzzies.

Put Tampa Bay back on our road uniforms!!

by joedobr on Apr 9, 2009 6:42 PM EDT reply actions

i would have liked to see JP pitch to Papi in the 9th, but oh well.

by walkoffwalk on Apr 9, 2009 6:46 PM EDT reply actions

If Percival set down the order 1-2-3 today I'd still be scared of him going forward.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 9, 2009 6:52 PM EDT reply actions

What do his fastball velocity and break look like from games last year when we think he was healthy?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 9, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Just looked up a random game.

4/5/08
-12.5 H-break
10.7 V-Break

Maxed at 93.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 9, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Then you would be just like any other panicy fan

Check out my blog on web development at kericr.wordpress.com

by kericr on Apr 9, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Huh?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 9, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Despite the fact that you have better reasoning behind your thought process

saying that you’d be afraid of Percival going forward regardless of what happened in his first appearance is just like most regular baseball fans. We’ve cut and poked at whether he’s capable of pitching to death and we know that when he’s healthy, he appears fine. When he’s hurt or ‘healthy’ then he’s not. Yesterday is the first time in a Rays uniform when he’s supposedly been healthy and looked pretty bad, that might be some cause for concern. But to say that you don’t want to see him pitching no matter what he looks like is IMO quite unreasonable, especially since right now, there’s nobody behind him.

Check out my blog on web development at kericr.wordpress.com

by kericr on Apr 10, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure it's that unreasonable.

He’s been below replacement level three of the past four seasons he’s pitched in.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=29&position=P#value

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 10, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions

I think it is safe to hand him a 5 run lead with

three outs to go, but anything short of that is playihng with fire.

by Gator80 on Apr 9, 2009 8:44 PM EDT reply actions

His release point was a bit inconsistent. Not good at all.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 9, 2009 10:15 PM EDT reply actions

Here is what Maddon had to say about Percy today

‘’It doesn’t always have to be an oil painting to be successful,‘’ Rays manager Joe Maddon said. ’’He’s probably amped up, man, and I don’t blame him. It’s a Fenway moment.’’

From the AP via SI

by plasticman on Apr 9, 2009 10:42 PM EDT reply actions

Yea, Maddon...

but I wanted to go Van Gogh on myself and cut my ear off after having to listen to the 9th inning on gameday audio at my work desk.

I asked my cubicle neighbor for scissors, and only because she couldn’t find them in time do I still have 2 ears.

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Apr 9, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I agree with you

Just like it was said in another article that Longo is carrying on from the postseason last year, it seems like Percy is doing a bit of the same. We’ll see if he can settle down.

by plasticman on Apr 9, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions