Scott Kazmir Average Once Again In Victory Against Red Sox
The hot topic in Scott Kazmir land this week has been first inning struggles. Coming into today's game he had given up nine first inning runs. Opponents were hitting .304/.515/.478/.993 against him and he had 10 walks to just seven strikeouts. Struggling was a nice way to say Kazmir has sucked in the first inning this year. Today he wasn't perfect in the first, but improved.
Pitching with a 2-0 lead, thanks to Evan Longoria's 11th home run of the year, Kazmir started out Jacoby Ellsbury with a strike. Not a big deal for most pitchers, but after the last two first innings Kazmir has had, it was a big deal. Kaz would retire Ellsbury on three pitches (all fastballs) and the first batter of the game was done; so far so good. Dustin Pedroia would walk on five pitches, but given the history he has of hitting against Scott, you almost take the walk there. David Ortiz would single on a check swing to left field. In one of the most bizarre plays I've ever seen, Pedroia and Ortiz would advance to second and third on a Carl Crawford throwing error. Pedroia fell down between second and third, and had Crawford thrown to third base he would've been easily out. Instead, CC lobbed the ball somewhere between second base and right field, advancing both.
Here is where Kazmir would normally be good for a few runs, a few walks and a few base hits. However, to his credit he "hunked" up as Tim McCarver said, and struck out Jason Bay on a slider. He would end the inning on a groundball out to third base; 1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K, 22 pitches, 12 strikes. Again, not perfect, but improved.
The first inning was really a microcosm of his entire day. Kaz would be in trouble for most of the game, however he would just bend not break. His worst inning was the fifth inning, which would also be his last inning. Kaz would give up two earned runs on three hits, a walk and an error in the frame. He would throw 35 pitches in the inning and cost himself possibly going another inning or two. At the end of the day it was your typical Kazmir line: 5 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K's, 100 pitches.
As has been par for the course, Kazmir's velocity was around 89 mph and he maxed out at 92. What was different for Kazmir was the pitch selection. After averaging around 15% changeups per outing, he only threw six of them out of 100 pitches. Instead, he lived off his fastball 58% and used his slider (34%) more than I can remember in recent memory.
I'm always the first to say there is no such thing as an ugly win, but with Scott Kazmir I'm starting to believe a "meh win" is possible. The first inning problems are still there as are the pitch count problems. Whether it's his mechanics, crowd size, or whatever, Scott Kazmir just continues to toe the rubber of mediocrity.
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it did seem like his mechanics where different today
he seemed to be focusing on his release point alot more. Isn’t there a fangraphs graph for that?
fangraphs shows him getting
significantly more horizontal movement and less vertical movement on all of his pitches so far this year. Clearly he is doing something different though.
Yes, it should be up sometime tomorrow.
If not by the morning.
by R.J. Anderson on May 10, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Top is from Fenway start 4/8. Bottom is yesterday. RP is same height, but "tighter" yesterday.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 10, 2009 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions
i think this proves my point below,
he was more concerned with getting mechanics back in line, which is why his velocity is down somewhat. i fully expect that when he feels he has consistency back, his velocity will increase.
W
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
Odd first inning play
It was a pretty awful play by Crawford, but in reality Pedroia would have been awarded third base even if he had made a good throw. The third base umpire was right on Bartlett’s interference. The only thing the throw did was move Ortiz up to second. And make Crawford look like an idiot.
Yeah it looked like he threw that opposite handed
or maybe he was trying out to play the part of Jonny Damon in a play or something.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 10, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I highly doubt Rick Knapp is better than Jim and Hickey.
by R.J. Anderson on May 10, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Sample size is small i agree
but he’s turned Verlnder and ackson around
Turned Jackson around?
Jackson has been incredibly lucky so far. We all know that when he’s on, he can be dominant. No one has ever questioned that. He has been giving up more fly balls with less home runs and opposing batters are currently making significantly less contact than usual. His BABIP is 60 points lower than his career numbers. That points to a regression coming soon. He’s benefiting from both luck and from moving to a different division with opponents less familiar with his pitches, but that’s not likely to be sustainable. Let’s wait before passing judgment.
And if you don’t like all those new-fangled stats – Jackson has started 1 more game than Niemann and they have the same number of wins. That’s all that matters, right?
Wromg
I’m well aware of the ‘new fanglesd’ stats, but here’s one you conveniently fail to mention
35/11 K/BB
Process that one a while
We'll see if it lasts.
Usually those numbers stabilize fairly quickly, but you know how cautious I am about tossing three years worth of data in favor of a few weeks worth.
by R.J. Anderson on May 10, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Lower contact rates
Lead to more swings and misses. Unfamiliarity can also lead to a temporary increase in that ratio. It’s possible he’s put it all together. It’s also possible that his stats are the result of a short time frame combined with luck that will regress. Honestly, I hope it’s the former, I wish Jackson the best. I just don’t think we have enough valid information to make a determination.
by sstamour on May 10, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well said
You should post more
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 11, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
RJ, question for you
What are the league results when a pitcher throws a first pitch strike v a ball?
Hm.
After 1-0: .852 OPS against
After 0-1: .638 OPS against
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&year=2009&lg=MLB
by R.J. Anderson on May 10, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
i'm sorry but this write up completely misses...
if you watched his last inning you would see he was a victim of circumstances beyond his control. bad play at the wall by CC, errors, poor decisions, bad umpiring, etc… his k’s were down, but it looked to me like he took something off all day to get his control under, well under control. i expect his velocity to increase after he feels he had complete control back.
His control was not under control.
He had three walks and 2 K’s. Sure he may have gotten squeezed once or twice, but his control wasn’t there.
by Erik Hahmann on May 10, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

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