Why the Infatuation With Cormier?
Maybe I'm totally off base here, because I haven't been hanging around DRB as much as I should, but there seems to be a significant amount of love being shown for Lance Cormier this season. It's almost as if he's now a critical member of the bullpen. I guess I can understand why, if you're watching games day in and day out -- opposing teams haven't scored many runs when he's been on the mound, resulting in a 2.49 ERA over 25.1 innings.
Past success is nice and all, but I'm quite worried about we're going to get from Cormier going forward. After all, that 2.49 ERA is "supported" by these other numbers:
- 2.8 K/9
- 3.7 HR/FB%
- 81 LOB%
Now, as a groundball pitcher, Cormier's set up to take full advantage of the awesome Rays' infield defense, which is why his current .274 BABIP might be what's to be expected the whole season. And by not giving up many fly balls, he's going to keep his home run total down. But only 3.7% of fly balls are going for homeruns? Mariano Rivera's beaten that once, and holds a 6.5% career rate. Jonathan Papelbon holds a 6.6% career rate. Those guys, well, Cormier is not one of those guys.
With as many balls as Cormier allows in play, more will start leaving the park and that will score runners Cormier's currently stranding on the bases, not just the players who hit them.
Looking just at Cormier's current K, BB, and HR rates, you'd expect him to have a 3.78 ERA in an average park with average defense. With the Rays' infield defense, that might be more like 3.50. But with a rising hom run rate, even just one more in 25 innings, his expected ERA would be in the 3.85 range and perhaps higher.
A reliever with that type of ERA is still an asset, just not the savior he appears to be right now. He's basically a healthy Chad Bradford, without as many ground balls.
0 recs |
16 comments
Comments
What did you use to devise expected ERA?
by FreeZorilla on May 13, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
FIP, then estimated down to 3.50, then added 1 run per 25 IP, which is about .35 points of ERA.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's being used in low leverage situations.
So when he does come in, people aren’t paying attention to the strikeouts/walks/etc., but simply that he keeps the score where it is.
by R.J. Anderson on May 13, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Um we love effective cheap groundball pitchers
No need to rain on our parade. I think you are looking for bucsdugout.com
A reliever with that type of ERA is still an asset, just not the savior he appears to be right now. He’s basically a healthy Chad Bradford, without as many ground balls.
For around 3 million dollar less.
12/17/08
His career K/BB rate of 1.25 is poor and his SwStr% is unimpressive, but then again so was Chad Bradford’s and Cormier won’t cost $3.5 million.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 13, 2009 3:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yah, but I don't know any homespun stories about Lance Cormier's unshakable faith in Jesus Christ, so..............
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 13, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching Mechanic
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 13, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chadbrad is literally what Brett Favre pretends to be.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 13, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Young?
Good?
Happy?
Smart?
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
by kericr on May 13, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pious and folksy
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 13, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That covers it.
I don’t think anyone here sees him as a savior and, more importantly, neither does Maddon based on Cormier’s high mop-up usage.
Today, we are all Honkballers.
by RATW on May 13, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because he's less excrutiating than Percival and Wheeler.
by Suttree on May 13, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For now.
Remember loving Wheeler last year when his ERA was well below what his peripherals supported?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 13, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one loved Wheeler last year
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 13, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wanted to shit my pants every single time Wheeler came into the game last year.
Nobody was better at generating giant flyball outs and hard hit line drives right to somebody’s glove.
by Suttree on May 13, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you mean 2 years ago when we got him from the 'Stros
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
by kericr on May 13, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 















