Why the Infatuation With Cormier?

Maybe I'm totally off base here, because I haven't been hanging around DRB as much as I should, but there seems to be a significant amount of love being shown for Lance Cormier this season.  It's almost as if he's now a critical member of the bullpen.  I guess I can understand why, if you're watching games day in and day out -- opposing teams haven't scored many runs when he's been on the mound, resulting in a 2.49 ERA over 25.1 innings.

Past success is nice and all, but I'm quite worried about we're going to get from Cormier going forward.  After all, that 2.49 ERA is "supported" by these other numbers:

• 2.8 K/9
• 3.7 HR/FB%
• 81 LOB%

Now, as a groundball pitcher, Cormier's set up to take full advantage of the awesome Rays' infield defense, which is why his current .274 BABIP might be what's to be expected the whole season.  And by not giving up many fly balls, he's going to keep his home run total down.  But only 3.7% of fly balls are going for homeruns?  Mariano Rivera's beaten that once, and holds a 6.5% career rate.  Jonathan Papelbon holds a 6.6% career rate.  Those guys, well, Cormier is not one of those guys.

With as many balls as Cormier allows in play, more will start leaving the park and that will score runners Cormier's currently stranding on the bases, not just the players who hit them.

Looking just at Cormier's current K, BB, and HR rates, you'd expect him to have a 3.78 ERA in an average park with average defense.  With the Rays' infield defense, that might be more like 3.50.  But with a rising hom run rate, even just one more in 25 innings, his expected ERA would be in the 3.85 range and perhaps higher.

A reliever with that type of ERA is still an asset, just not the savior he appears to be right now.  He's basically a healthy Chad Bradford, without as many ground balls.