5/13 Post-Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles

by R.J. Anderson on May 13, 2009 10:38 PM EDT

Player	WPA
Bartlett	0.165
Pena	0.138
Aybar	0.131
Wheeler	0.093
Shouse	0.085
Cormier	0.076
Zobrist	0.058
Howell	0.053
Niemann	0.046
Navarro	0.027
Gross	-0.016
Iwamura	-0.025
Upton	-0.039
Percival	-0.049
Crawford	-0.089
Longoria	-0.155

J.P. in, game chilled.

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Bartlett "added a lot of muscle" this off season.

hmmm

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 13, 2009 10:39 PM EDT reply actions

He switched to Paul Byrd's dentist

by Raymondo on May 13, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope he's not visiting the fertility clinic with Manny

AC/DC + Tampa Bay Rays = Big Balls on a Budget

by Orlando Rays on May 13, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm assuming everyone heard this

The org showed him his batting average on flyballs from last year and told him to change his approach and put the ball on the ground or hit liners. The new approach appears to be working. Speculation on steroids, I’m not sure if it sarcasm or not, is especially asinine in the case.

by RaysTheRoof on May 14, 2009 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Bartlett was all like: "I'mma aim better"

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 14, 2009 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm sure Barty's adjusted his swing, and certainly his patience has been better

but his BABIP is still really, really high and ultimately unsustainable. Even with a line drive swing and improved patience (possibly because the Rays encouraged him to reject the hack-happy Twins’ style), he’s not going to hit .350-360 all year.

by Suttree on May 14, 2009 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Of course he's not. He's got to cycle off sometime...

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on May 14, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions

I bet Aki's the one that sticks the needle in his ass.

by Suttree on May 14, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions

How does Percy not get a -5000 WAR?

by Raymondo on May 13, 2009 10:41 PM EDT reply actions

Because he was given a 6 run lead to play with

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 13, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to say he isn't fucking awful

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 13, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Implied.

by R.J. Anderson on May 13, 2009 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Low leverage situation.

by R.J. Anderson on May 13, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Crawford and Longoria cost more than Percy

Shows why WPA is stupid.

AC/DC + Tampa Bay Rays = Big Balls on a Budget

by Orlando Rays on May 13, 2009 10:46 PM EDT reply actions

Leverage.

by R.J. Anderson on May 13, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Plus, how many baserunners did Longoria strand before the game was out of hand?

Stuff like that plays into it.

by R.J. Anderson on May 13, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

It's situationally adjusted

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 13, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I like it for things like MVP awards

(i.e., who had the best game/month/season), but it obviously tells us nothing about true value.

by GomesSweetGomes on May 13, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Yet people bitch about how A-Rod isn't clutch and only hits garbage time HRs

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 13, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions

You know what?

This is the first times the Rays truly got lucky this year. This was the first time we had any sort of regression or reversion to the mean when it was a low leverage situation as we were winning. All year its been Howell kicking butt in normal situations but then sucking in high leverage. Balfour regressing from last year in tough spots, yet throwing 2 scoreless last night. Do not get me started on the hitters. Yet tonight was the first night our regression took place in a spot where it didn’t feel like an anal probe into our poop shoot. Percival sucked ass, but it didn’t cost us. We all knew he would suck ass, and it didn’t cost us a game. I feel fortunate, but we deserved this to happen in a time where it wouldn’t result in a W or L.

by matthan on May 13, 2009 11:07 PM EDT reply actions

Observations from today

Even though I missed the game, Bartlett is still awesome, nice to see Upton getting some really good games underway finally. Hopefully Crawford gets better quickly, kinda sad that he could be injured again after last year. WTF happened to Longoria in this game that he left 7 guys on base in going 0-6 with 2 Ks?

by Transplanted on May 13, 2009 11:17 PM EDT reply actions

Longo is going to crash to his average

He is not Albert Pujols with the glove of Brooks Robinson

Hopefully we can make up his decline from Pujols to a really really good hitters by BJ, Navi, pick your platoon in RF, and the DH making up the difference.

by matthan on May 13, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I know

it sucked seeing Jesus Christ go 0 for 6 last night.

by BOHICA_ALEast on May 14, 2009 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions

I also have a problem with the graph

Once it was 8 to 6 with the tying run at the place after they’ve put up a huge inning I would think their probability of winning would have risen a bit higher. But then again the dinosaur wasn’t in the game anymore

by matthan on May 13, 2009 11:32 PM EDT reply actions

Its just descriptive

Personally I prefer RE24, does not account for leverage, but is the aggregate of the change in run expectancy across all at-bats. Here are last nights game’s numbers courtesy of Fangraphs:

Pena 2.44
Bartlett 2.09
Zobrist 1.92
Niemann 0.96
Aybar 0.94
Wheeler 0.59
Shouse 0.59
Cormier 0.59
Navi 0.23
Howell -0.24
Upton -0.31
Aki -0.32
Crawford -0.86
Gross -0.89
Longo -2.56
Percival -3.16

by FreeZorilla on May 14, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions

*It also factors baserunning.

by FreeZorilla on May 14, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions

What is RE24?

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on May 14, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions

24 Run Expectancy

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html

There are 24 different bases occupied and # of out scenarios.

For example w 0 outs: no one on, runner on 1, runner on 2, runner of 3, runners on 12, runners 13, runners 23, runners on 123.

That is eight scenarios. The same eight senarios exist with 1 and 2 outs to get to 24. RE24 reflects the change in the run expectancy value for a baseball play.

For example: If a player is up with runners on 1 and 3 with 1 out. The run expectancy is 1.243 runs for that inning. If the player pops up with no runner advancements the run expectancy drops to .538 runs for that inning.

The batter would be credited with a -.67 RE24 for that at-bat as that is the decrease in run expectancy.

by FreeZorilla on May 14, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Makes sense. Thanks.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on May 14, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

A serious question, don't take it the wrong way, but

do you feel leverage is unimportant? I do like the look of this, but it seems like it should be factored in somehow. I imagine these numbers parallel over a large enough sample so it’s probably moot.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 14, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Leverage is important

But I don’t think WPA is enough. I think if you want to evaluate performance RE24 tells you more. If you want to measure clutch performance WPA. I’m still fairly new at these win probability stats but at least for this game RE24 makes me happier. Longo and Percy deserved very low numbers. A guy like Zobrist comes in and goes 2B, BB, single. I think they both have their importance as descriptive stats.

If we discount the RBI stat b/c of the question of Opportunity, I think you have to discount WPA b/c the same question exists in getting a crack in a high leverage situation.

by FreeZorilla on May 14, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions