Series Preview: 5/14-5/17 Cleveland Indians @ Tampa Bay Rays

by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2009 1:22 PM EDT

5/14: Fausto Carmona vs. James Shields (7:08 FSF)

5/15: Anthony Reyes vs. Scott Kazmir (7:38 SS)

5/16: Carl Pavano vs. Matt Garza (4:10 FOX)

5/17:? (David Huff/Zach Jackson) vs. Andy Sonnanstine (1:38 FSF)

Well, back-to-back series of four games is better than a pair of two-game series, even if they do come against teams better than their current records.

Since his illustrious 2007 season, Carmona hasn't been quite the same. As Carmona control has went wayward, so to have his strikeout rates. In 2007, Carmona used his sinking fastball and slider in combination with a split-fingered pitch. Nowadays, Carmona barely throws the slider and the splitter has been replaced by a change-up. Carmona is only locating about 45% of his pitches inside of the strike zone, but he has done a fairly decent job of getting first-pitch strikes, meaning the Rays batters are going to fall behind 0-1, but should be able to work the count into their favor with some discipline.

Reyes is an odd story. For no apparent reason other than being in Dave Duncan's doghouse, Reyes has spent the past three seasons toiling in the minor leagues, posting impressive numbers at each stop and finally being liberated by the Indians last July. Also odd, his fastball velocity:

2005 91.4 MPH

2006 89.7 MPH

2007 89.6 MPH

2008 90.9 MPH

2009 87.8 MPH

Perhaps this is a radar gun or small sample size, but either way, you usually don't see velocities record so much noise on a year-to-year basis.

Everyone knows Pavano's background. Pavano just might be the best pitcher we face this series. He's looking a lot like the pre-Yankees days right now, which makes him a prudent signing for GM Mark Shapiro if he keeps this up throughout most of the season.

The Indians signed Luis Vizcaino and demoted the scheduled starter Jeremy Sowers. Instead, it seems like the Indians will give Huff or Jackson the call.

C Victor Martinez/Kelly Shoppach

1B Martinez/Ryan Garko

2B Asdrubal Cabrera

3B Mark DeRosa

SS Jhonny Peralta

LF Ben Francisco/Matt LaPorta

CF Grady Sizemore

RF Shin-Soo Choo

DH David Dellucci

With Travis Hafner out there's a ton of moving parts in this lineup, so you may or may not see something to this effect.

Playoff Odds

Pre-Baltimore: 37%

Post-Baltimore: 37%

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Comments

I get the feeling that Grady is going to wake up against us

Just a hunch, but that seems like are luck.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 14, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions

Sizemore is 'pull happy' right now. Keep it that way

by Raymondo on May 14, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm sensing a 4 game sweep

We are at home. We do have some momentum. BJ and Navi have shown some signs of life. We have HUGE pitching advantages all four days….

3 of 4 is obviously acceptable, but this is a prime opportunity. We’ve allowed teams with crappy pitching to punish us (Baltimore)…lets turn the tide and take advantage of it.

by matthan on May 14, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions

Looks good

but the game after the Tribe, I hope it is started by Price!

2010 Rotation: 1. Shields 2. Kazmir 3. Garza 4. Price 5. Davis with Hellickson knocking on the door, it keeps getting better and better

by joeybw on May 14, 2009 2:06 PM EDT reply actions

I just hope there's a sufficiently sized crowd on Friday

Or Stu could just outfit the dugout with a cotton candy gin.

by PlayOnWords on May 14, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions

too soon

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 14, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

bummer

by PlayOnWords on May 14, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Anthony Reyes

The decline of Anthony Reyes has been something that has really surprised me… Guy looked like a future stud in 05 and parts of 06 but suddenly fell off the face of the Earth.

I haven’t been able to see him pitch much as of late so I’m curious to see if he still has the stuff that made him dominant in the minors. I guess that changeup of his isn’t nearly as effective when his FB is only touching 87 MPH.

Looking forward to a much needed sweep

by DRays07 on May 14, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions

It's nice to be out of the ALE for a minute

but I hope we play with the same intensity as if we were playing Boston every night. Maybe we should go back to 9=8 because it sure seems like we aren’t playing 9 hard innings every night.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 14, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Baltimore sucks

There staff and pen has to be the worst in the majors, or darn close to it. We have noone to fault but ourselves for not crushing them.

by matthan on May 14, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

They're really not that terrible.

The pen and staff aren’t great, but the defense is good and that lineup is nasty.

by Suttree on May 14, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm inclined to agree with this

OF defense is pretty dang good and Izturis has some pretty good range. IF is not bad defensively. For the most part they all hit (HTF do you give up a homer to Felix Pie?)

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 14, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Baltimore's lineup and defense is really good

The pitching not so much, but that will change in a year or two. They have 3 good arms coming up to anchor the rotation

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on May 14, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

But right now they have probably the worst collection of arms in the major leagues. They’ll be a force in a few years, but right now they literally have zero pitching.

How many members of their pitching staff would even be on our roster?

by matthan on May 14, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Phillies rotation has a collective FIP over 6.

by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd take Guthrie in a heartbeat

I’d say the Phils are pitching worse at this point, though they probably have more talent. The Nat’s aren’t very good either, WTF is Shairon Martis?

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 14, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

The Brewers rotation is a mess too, minus Gallardo and Parra/Bush.

Boy, they should could use a new cheap starter for the next few years.

by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

SHUT UP ABOUT THAT

No Gamel, no deal. Have we even looked at this from a value perspective using assumptions of what each would do over the next 3 years. I like me some Kaz even at half power.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 14, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Depends on the condition of Kazmir's arm.

If he’s a 2-2.5 win pitcher he has value, but I’m not sure his value to us is worth his cost when we have Price/Davis floating around.

by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

A lot of prospects don't pan out

Not saying these guys are duds, but a proven guy that can dial it up to be one of the best in the league when everything is going well is a great commodity. This seems like the appropriate time to have this discussion since it does seem like he’s at a major crossroads.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 14, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll be there all alone tonight to see Big Game James make a Faustian Bargain

by ReasonableDoubt on May 14, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions

Goin to the game tonight

and am really lookin forward to maybe a CG from James tonight. Hes been relatively close a few times but has let 1 or 2 bad innings stop him. I think he dominates this lineup and we get goin on a little streak. Oh and maybe BJ’s first HR? Just went from six to midnight thinkin about it

by BJ the Bossman on May 14, 2009 2:52 PM EDT reply actions

Nice of you to invite me.

Dick.

by Suttree on May 14, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I

am not going in my seats. So put the kleenex away.

by BJ the Bossman on May 14, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions

LEARN TO USE THE REPLY BUTTON, COCK SUCKER.

by Suttree on May 14, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Because of the fact

You had caps lock on, I understood your message WAY BETTER

by BJ the Bossman on May 14, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I consider myself your resident expert

on the Indians

Some keys to being them

Keep Sizemore in his OBP slump, as he goes so do they

Throw strikes. A huge part of their offense is the BB

As a LH hitter pitch Martinez away, he loves to pull the ball, as a RH hitter pitch him tight

Don’t swing at Carmona’s slide/sink, as he can’t locate it for strikes. Hes awfully good when pitching ahead

Their OF defense is pretty shaky so take the extra base although Choo has an arm

Let’s sweep them

by Raymondo on May 14, 2009 3:28 PM EDT reply actions

So, wait, are you an Indians fan or a Rays fan?

by Suttree on May 14, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Raymondo hates baseball

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 14, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I hate the Indians

by Raymondo on May 14, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Love to hate?

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 14, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Jose Mesa?

Swav or Die.

by SRQman on May 14, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to be a dick

But wasnt the whole scouting report on Carmona about the fact he gets ahead and then loses the hitter? That isnt something I would call “awfully good” That being said you apparently watch the Indians a lot more than myself just throwing that out there

by BJ the Bossman on May 14, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions