Barty, Zorilla, and Kaz Analysis
by RayFanNY on May 16, 2009 10:33 AM EDT
36 comments
For a few years I have harped on the great writing and analysis at Baseballhq.com. The site is authored by Ron Shandler, a long time sabermetrician who was a key talent evaluator for the Cardinals during the world series run.
The last 2 weeks, Shandler has provided interesting breakdowns on Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist, and Scott Kazmir. I happen to agree with his analyses on all three.
With regard to Jason Bartlett, HQ notes that his 2009 breakout is actually not a breakout at all, but a continuation of the second half of 2008:
Analysis of extra base hits and home runs shows Bartlett had a career best performance in the second half of 2008. While his current line drive rate is unsustainable, if he can keep it around 25% he will put up a career year. His contact rate has hardly fluctuated at all throughout his career. But his ability to make authoritative contact has increased dramatically since mid season 2008. Expect his batting average to normalize around .300.
Combine his new found offensive production with his + Defensive skills, and you have a player truly worthy of team MVP consideration again if it were not for the amazing start by Longoria.
Ben Zobrist has exhibited amazing power growth for 3 consecutive seasons. While the current 60+% fly ball rate and 25% hr/fly rate will not be sustained, HQ believes his base line power growth is real. HQ also predicted his increased batting average, as his BABIP early in the year was abnormally low for his contact rate and GB/LD/F ratios. HQ boldly claims, "We have yet to see the best from Ben Zobrist," and that his baseline skills should continue to increase with added playing time at the age of 27. Zorilla fans rejoice.
Scott Kazmir was identified prior to the season by HQ as being a highly risky bet for both fantasy leagues and the real world Rays. A rapidly declining K/9 rate is the biggest red flag. Kazmir struck out 10.4 per 9 in 2007. HQ noted the drop to 9.8 per 9 in 2008, coincident with a much higher walk rate. The bottom has dropped out in 2009 so far, with the K rate down to around 7 per 9, while the walk rate has exploded. Combined with the much talked about drop in velocity, HQ sees little reason for optimism going forward. Though they do suggest this is by far the worst we will have seen from Kazmir, whose expected ERA (based on his peripherals) is a full run below is actual ERA.
Somewhat of a correction should be expected soon. But unless his walk rate is cut by at least 50%, and his K rate increases back toward previous levels, the days of Kazmir being considered a "staff ace" are long gone.
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Hickey's got him all f'd up!
Kazmir is a power pitcher not a finesse pitcher. Jim’s got him throwing a lazy 87-89 MPH fastball if that’s what you call it and it lacks the movement his 93-95 has. Yes Kaz has to stay in position when throwing the ball, however he’s all f’d up and not trying to throw the ball the way he can Hickey’s got him so “mechanics” conscience.
The same goes for Neimann. These guys are throwers, let them throw and do what they do best and they’ll be fine. You can’t turn a sprinter into a marathon runner. Let these guys loose!
by ConnorManning on May 16, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jim’s got him throwing a lazy 87-89 MPH fastball
Yes it’s Jim Hickey’s fault. I’m sure Kaz will use this next.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 16, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is one of the more asinine comments
Ive read in a long time
by RaysTheRoof on May 16, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you know anything about pitching mechanics, baseball, etc.?
If you did you would realize Kaz is just going through the motions of pitching without putting the effort of throwing the ball hard. This IS Hickey’s fault.
Did Nolan Ryan ever hold back? No power pitch does.
This is Hickey’s doing not only with Scott but with Neimann too. Jeff can throw mid 90’s easily but Hickeys got him thinking about mechanics so much and being a finesse pitcher rather than letting him play catch with the catcher with an upper 90’s heater.
It’s Hickey’s doing. If you have a valid point into why both Neimann & Kazmir are throwing 5-7 MPH under what they’re capable of, I’d love to read your B.S.
by ConnorManning on May 16, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
From your comment it's obvious that you watch baseball, but you don't get it.
The time is NOW Connor.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 16, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So what's your reasoning on why Garza is allowed to pound the zone with fastballs and Kaz and Niemann have to work on mechanics?
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 16, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is he holding Sonny back from throwing 95 too?
by rays1234 on May 16, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not 1
No, not 2,
Not 3 either…
But 4 yes men jump the bandwagon in an hour.
You’s guys are a hoot!
by ConnorManning on May 16, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't call pointing to an inconsistency in your argument as something that would qualify me as a yesman, but
sure keep on having all the answers
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 16, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Hickey is the one who overworked Niemann at Rice and made Kazmir's arm go kaplut?
That’s odd, because Kazmir had arm issues before Hickey ever donned a Rays cap.
by R.J. Anderson on May 16, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Conor Manning, Fighting the Establishment!
by Suttree on May 16, 2009 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's had a couple twisted teas and he's ready to fight
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 16, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Washington. Lenin. Ghandi. Huey P.
And now: CONOR MANNING.
NO ONE DENIES THIS!
by Suttree on May 16, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What an odd list.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 16, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Revolutionaries, man.http://www.draysbay.com/2009/5/16/877217/barty-zorilla-and-kaz-analysis#
I had a big time obsession with Huey P. Newton when I was 17. Which is great, because I was a middle class white kid.
by Suttree on May 16, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fare Enuff
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 16, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only major argument against Hickey is the drop across the board
Either the gun is slow or it is something systemic.
Personally I think it is a slow gun and the decline of a couple pitchers (namely Kaz). I don’t think Hickey is a great pitching coach, but I don’t think he is telling them to throw softer.
by matthan on May 16, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good game yesterday...
I’m sorry I wasn’t here to retort earlier, I was at the game yesterday. Took the fam and we all walked away with our Evan Longo ROY figurines. If someone doesn’t have one and is a collector I have 4 if you want one. They’re pretty cool looking but his teeth are a little Bugs Bunny like.
No padded walls RJ, hope you’re not disappointed.
There are 2 N’s in Connor, you’d probably mispell Doiner’s name too. BTW, he stunk up the joint again yesterday, PEEEEEEEEEEW!
And yes Sandy, there is a Santa Claus and all his li’l elve’s attack anything that is stated in the negative about the Rays organization with the exception of Percival.
Matt, I don’t believe Hickey’s telling them to throw softer. I do believe he’s telling them velocity doesn’t matter (which I believe to be a crock) just hit your spots and be aware of their pitching mechanics.
I think Doiner reads this board. I haven’t seen him wipe his snot all over his hand and uni in 2 days while in the batters box.
I didn’t realize RJ knew Kaz has an arm problem and this is the reason why he’s not throwing hard this year.
BTW, what excuses has Scott made up for his underperforming this season?
Doiner to Montgomery! The time is NOW!
by ConnorManning on May 17, 2009 6:52 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Ugh, can't even bring myself to do that
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 17, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
Just because we don’t bitch and moan or let loose the water works, doesn’t mean that we don’t look at the other side. I try to remain pretty fair. At this point in time it seems like we are playing a lot worse to the casual observer, when I could find numerous good things to take away from every game. We’ve under-performed our pythag all season and when I see things that I don’t think are true it makes me want to look at the numbers. The numbers don’t lie, bro.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 17, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually see this
Our offense is performing better than expected. We have two guys underperforming. The rest are either overperforming or at their average.
SP we can say we are underperforming. But are we really? Kaz is no longer a good pitcher. Neimann is not really a good pitcher. So we do have two duds that can only go a few innings a game there. You can make the case Sonny is underperforming, but he isn’t supposed to be a stud. He is a back of the rotation guy. Shields can pitch a bit better, but he also has had some good games.
The pen has been our rough spot. But is it really when you have to throw so many innings with so many guys?
by matthan on May 18, 2009 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Our starting staff is most certainly underforming.
James Shields
Career FIP: 4.04
2009 FIP: 4.80
Scott Kazmir
Career: 3.85
2009: 5.76
Andy Sonnanstine
Career: 4.13
2009: 4:76
Garza’s the only one outperforming expectations. Neimann is probably a dud, though it’s painfully obvious if he threw his curveball more and his fastball less, he’d be much more effective.
Has our bullpen been lights out? No, it’s had some dud games, but it’s also had some fantastic ones. Lance Cormier has pretty much single handedly saved our asses, considering he’s pitched more innings than Niemann.
by Suttree on May 18, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have to throw out Kazmirs career FIP
He isn’t what he used to be. Previous data is has little worth.
Basically you said exactly what I said. Garza is being what he should be, and Shields and Sonny are slightly below norms. Although I don’t think Sonny is a 4.13 FIP going forward. We just disagree about Kaz. Forecasting him is pretty hard given how his declining skills. I don’t think he is a 5.76 FIP going forward but I think around 5 is pretty realistic at this point.
by matthan on May 18, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In certain areas, we're agreeing, but unlike you I don't think the pen is the biggest problem.
It’s been solid enough, but having only one pitcher consistently make it into the 7th inning is a major problem. No pen can work at this rate.
As for Kaz, yes, it’s obvious his skills have declined, but it’s still a little early to completely dismiss his chances of recovering. Even last year, his FIP was 4.76. Even if the fastball doesn’t pick back up, he can still recover his ability by changing his approach. By pitching smarter, he can still be extremely effective.
by Suttree on May 18, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"The numbers don’t lie, bro."
And the numbers Jeff & Scott are putting up on the radar gun are sick! Not to mention Balfour’s anemic 89 MPH puss ball.
I thought Matt had it correct when he stated he thought the radar gun was a bit slow, then wood comes in and jacks it up to 97 & 98 MPH.
So I ask all you “yes” men, could it be that Hickey’s got these guys all f’d up? You all can stay in your circle and type with one hand and still disagree if you want, however, velocity amungst Rays pitchers in general is way down. Even the meatball throwing Sonny used to hit 90-91 last season. Now he tops out at 88 while his normal fastball if that’s what you call it is coming in anywhere from 85 to 87.
Something just aint right.
Yes man to boss statement of the day: “GEE, I wish I’d thought of that.”
by ConnorManning on May 18, 2009 7:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Something clearly isn't right
It is tough to speculate why, but to ignore it would be equally foolish.
by matthan on May 18, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What evidence do you have to suggest that Hickey is responsible for the drop in velocity?
You mention Niemann and Kazmir, two pitchers with a history of shoulder and elbow injuries. Hm. That couldn’t be a factor in dropped velocity, could it? Balfour has also had injury issues, and in case you haven’t been watching the games, has touched 96-97 at different times. So, he’s not sitting at 95 like last year, but that fastball is still nasty.
And I don’t ever recall Sonny sitting at 90-91. Maybe touching occasionally. You know, once every four or five starts.
by Suttree on May 18, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still think there is a good chance the Pitch F/X machine was recalibrated prior to Saturday’s game based on the improvement in velocity for both Garza and Balfour of approx 1.5 MPH vs previous home appearances. Percy’s velocity yesterday also echoed that as he averaged 90.97 vs 89.38 in his Friday inning of work.
So if we adjusted GB downward that 1.5 he only averaged 90.4, by far his slowest of the year (91.25) and he walked 23 and struck out none. I really think this is overuse.
5/12 23 pitches
5/14 29 pitches
5/16 17 pitches
5/17/24 pitches
Thats 93 pitches over 6 days. He needs to rest a few days at this point and see what he comes back with.
by FreeZorilla on May 18, 2009 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just to clarify, you're talking about Balfour, yes?
And it needs repeating: this team did play an extra month last year compared to other pitchers, and Balfour did participate in the WBC.
by Suttree on May 18, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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