I got to thinking today that it seems like Beej comes in quite a bit when he can manage to steal first. This got me to thinking about where he stands compared to other players. It came out pretty, pretty, pretty good. I took a rudimentary way to look at this. I multiplied OBP and PA. This gives a good approximation of Times on Base (ToB). I then divided this into Runs to get an idea of how likely a player (or team) is to score. I did this for the individuals with >=50 PA in the ALE, for ALE teams, and lastly there is a look at teams on a league-wide basis.
AL East teams:
| Team |
OBP |
PA |
ToB |
Runs |
Success Rate |
| TOR |
0.359 |
1,551 |
557 |
221 |
39.7% |
| TAM |
0.346 |
1,451 |
502 |
197 |
39.2% |
| BAL |
0.343 |
1,379 |
473 |
185 |
39.1% |
| BOS |
0.364 |
1,442 |
525 |
201 |
38.3% |
| NYY |
0.351 |
1,419 |
498 |
189 |
37.9% |
| AL Avg |
0.340 |
19,371 |
6,586 |
2,508 |
38.1% |
| MLAvg |
0.339 |
41,119 |
13,939 |
5,147 |
36.9% |
|
|
|
|
On to B.J., using the same math I looked at every player in the AL East that has more than 50 PA's. By success rate:
| |
Team |
OBP |
PA |
ToB |
Runs |
Success Rate |
| Adam Jones |
BAL |
0.426 |
141 |
60.1 |
35 |
58% |
| B. J. Upton |
TAM |
0.293 |
140 |
41.0 |
22 |
54% |
| Brett Gardner |
NYY |
0.330 |
91 |
30.0 |
16 |
53% |
| Dioner Navarro |
TAM |
0.211 |
119 |
25.1 |
13 |
52% |
| Nick Markakis |
BAL |
0.410 |
161 |
66.0 |
34 |
52% |
| Brian Roberts |
BAL |
0.378 |
164 |
62.0 |
31 |
50% |
| Johnny Damon |
NYY |
0.380 |
150 |
57.0 |
27 |
47% |
| Evan Longoria |
TAM |
0.399 |
158 |
63.0 |
29 |
46% |
| Marco Scutaro |
TOR |
0.404 |
184 |
74.3 |
34 |
46% |
| Ian Kinsler |
TEX |
0.380 |
167 |
63.5 |
29 |
46% |
| Vernon Wells |
TOR |
0.316 |
174 |
55.0 |
25 |
45% |
| Dustin Pedroia |
BOS |
0.410 |
161 |
66.0 |
30 |
45% |
| Jason Bartlett |
TAM |
0.359 |
139 |
49.9 |
22 |
44% |
| Carlos Pena |
TAM |
0.365 |
156 |
56.9 |
25 |
44% |
| Jason Bay |
BOS |
0.449 |
158 |
70.9 |
31 |
44% |
| Gabe Gross |
TAM |
0.366 |
71 |
26.0 |
11 |
42% |
| Carl Crawford |
TAM |
0.393 |
163 |
64.1 |
27 |
42% |
| Kevin Youkilis |
BOS |
0.505 |
109 |
55.0 |
23 |
42% |
| J.D. Drew |
BOS |
0.369 |
130 |
48.0 |
20 |
42% |
| Nick Swisher |
NYY |
0.381 |
139 |
53.0 |
22 |
42% |
| Kevin Millar |
TOR |
0.328 |
67 |
22.0 |
9 |
41% |
| Robinson Cano |
NYY |
0.346 |
156 |
54.0 |
22 |
41% |
| Scott Rolen |
TOR |
0.386 |
140 |
54.0 |
22 |
41% |
| Aaron Hill |
TOR |
0.391 |
179 |
70.0 |
28 |
40% |
| Ben Zobrist |
TAM |
0.375 |
88 |
33.0 |
13 |
39% |
| Mark Teixeira |
NYY |
0.342 |
149 |
51.0 |
20 |
39% |
| Travis Snider |
TOR |
0.306 |
100 |
30.6 |
12 |
39% |
| Melky Cabrera |
NYY |
0.394 |
104 |
41.0 |
16 |
39% |
| Jeff Bailey |
BOS |
0.310 |
58 |
18.0 |
7 |
39% |
| Mike Lowell |
BOS |
0.331 |
148 |
49.0 |
19 |
39% |
| Jose Bautista |
TOR |
0.427 |
85 |
36.3 |
14 |
39% |
| Alex Rios |
TOR |
0.326 |
178 |
58.0 |
22 |
38% |
| Derek Jeter |
NYY |
0.344 |
157 |
54.0 |
20 |
37% |
| Jacoby Ellsbury |
BOS |
0.340 |
160 |
54.4 |
20 |
37% |
| Julio Lugo |
BOS |
0.392 |
51 |
20.0 |
7 |
35% |
| Gregg Zaun |
BAL |
0.302 |
106 |
32.0 |
11 |
34% |
| Felix Pie |
BAL |
0.288 |
81 |
23.3 |
8 |
34% |
| Lyle Overbay |
TOR |
0.365 |
104 |
38.0 |
13 |
34% |
| Adam Lind |
TOR |
0.406 |
160 |
65.0 |
22 |
34% |
| Cody Ransom |
NYY |
0.226 |
53 |
12.0 |
4 |
33% |
| Aubrey Huff |
BAL |
0.361 |
158 |
57.0 |
19 |
33% |
| Ramiro Pena |
NYY |
0.333 |
55 |
18.3 |
6 |
33% |
| Cesar Izturis |
BAL |
0.292 |
115 |
33.6 |
11 |
33% |
| Luke Scott |
BAL |
0.384 |
112 |
43.0 |
14 |
33% |
| Rod Barajas |
TOR |
0.336 |
121 |
40.7 |
13 |
32% |
| Nick Green |
BOS |
0.352 |
91 |
32.0 |
10 |
31% |
| Jason Varitek |
BOS |
0.310 |
116 |
36.0 |
11 |
31% |
| Akinori Iwamura |
TAM |
0.338 |
139 |
47.0 |
14 |
30% |
| David Ortiz |
BOS |
0.318 |
157 |
49.9 |
14 |
28% |
| Jorge Posada |
NYY |
0.402 |
92 |
37.0 |
10 |
27% |
| Lou Mantanez |
BAL |
0.294 |
51 |
15.0 |
4 |
27% |
| Willy Aybar |
TAM |
0.333 |
57 |
19.0 |
5 |
26% |
| Gabe Kapler |
TAM |
0.296 |
54 |
16.0 |
4 |
25% |
| Hideki Matsui |
NYY |
0.355 |
124 |
44.0 |
10 |
23% |
| Pat Burrell |
TAM |
0.349 |
126 |
44.0 |
9 |
20% |
| Ty Wigginton |
BAL |
0.254 |
118 |
30.0 |
6 |
20% |
| Melvin Mora |
BAL |
0.325 |
83 |
27.0 |
5 |
19% |
|
|
|
|
It would appear B.J. does score quite a bit when given the opportunity. I know the first thing you're going to mention is Navi sitting in the 4 hole. I found this pretty interesting myself, but for a guy with a horrendous OBP (Worst among Regular Players) he does seem to be able to get over and get in on a regular basis. I thought this was hilarious as well. Check out that speed score and then compare it to the rest of the Rays. Craw, oh me, oh my.
That blip aside, you find mostly guys that have solid hitters behind them and/or have some wheels. Keep in mind that the league average is 36.9%. Balitmore's top 3 are feeding off eachother right now, but if BJ can bring up his OBP, we'll also have 3 in the top-10 with Bartlett and Pena knocking on the door.
Lastly, I wanted to show all the Major League teams so you can get an idea where we rank as well as other teams that you keep an eye on.
| Tm |
PA |
R |
OBP |
ToB
|
Success Rate |
| TEX |
1378 |
201 |
0.335 |
462 |
43.5% |
| DET |
1301 |
181 |
0.337 |
438 |
41.3% |
| PHI |
1319 |
184 |
0.343 |
452 |
40.7% |
| COL |
1304 |
175 |
0.337 |
439 |
39.8% |
| TOR |
1551 |
221 |
0.359 |
557 |
39.7% |
| TBR |
1451 |
197 |
0.346 |
502 |
39.2% |
| BAL |
1379 |
185 |
0.343 |
473 |
39.1% |
| STL |
1348 |
180 |
0.343 |
462 |
38.9% |
| CHC |
1320 |
172 |
0.34 |
449 |
38.3% |
| BOS |
1442 |
201 |
0.364 |
525 |
38.3% |
| LAA |
1316 |
172 |
0.343 |
451 |
38.1% |
| NYY |
1419 |
189 |
0.351 |
498 |
37.9% |
| LAD |
1484 |
207 |
0.374 |
555 |
37.3% |
| MIL |
1353 |
177 |
0.351 |
475 |
37.3% |
| CLE |
1486 |
196 |
0.357 |
531 |
36.9% |
| MIN |
1387 |
177 |
0.348 |
483 |
36.7% |
| FLA |
1407 |
163 |
0.317 |
446 |
36.5% |
| OAK |
1265 |
141 |
0.311 |
393 |
35.8% |
| KCR |
1370 |
164 |
0.336 |
460 |
35.6% |
| CIN |
1350 |
161 |
0.335 |
452 |
35.6% |
| WSN |
1404 |
176 |
0.36 |
505 |
34.8% |
| NYM |
1393 |
180 |
0.372 |
518 |
34.7% |
| SEA |
1355 |
144 |
0.306 |
415 |
34.7% |
| HOU |
1344 |
154 |
0.332 |
446 |
34.5% |
| CHW |
1271 |
139 |
0.32 |
407 |
34.2% |
| SFG |
1327 |
142 |
0.316 |
419 |
33.9% |
| PIT |
1328 |
144 |
0.327 |
434 |
33.2% |
| ATL |
1370 |
156 |
0.345 |
473 |
33.0% |
| SDP |
1350 |
136 |
0.313 |
423 |
32.2% |
| ARI |
1347 |
132 |
0.306 |
412 |
32.0% |
| LgAvg |
1371 |
172 |
0.339 |
465 |
37.0% |
| LgTot |
41119 |
5147 |
0.339 |
13,939 |
36.9% |
|
|
|
|
The Rays are 6th in this metric. Right up there with the team's that usually come to mind when you think of high-powered offense. We certainly looked ok today so let's see if we can keep the mojo risin' here. I now have all Major League hitters with >= 50 PA in the workbook, which can be downloaded Success Rates for Hitting vs. Pitching . Tomorrow I will be issuing part 2 where I look at pitching vs. batters.
.
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