Bossman Scores A Lot (When He Gets On)

I got to thinking today that it seems like Beej comes in quite a bit when he can manage to steal first.  This got me to thinking about where he stands compared to other players.  It came out pretty, pretty, pretty good.  I took a rudimentary way to look at this.  I multiplied OBP and PA.  This gives a good approximation of Times on Base (ToB).  I then divided this into Runs to get an idea of how likely a player (or team) is to score.  I did this for the individuals with >=50 PA in the ALE, for ALE teams, and lastly there is a look at teams on a league-wide basis. 

AL East teams:

Team OBP PA ToB Runs Success
Rate
TOR    0.359      1,551          557       221 39.7%
TAM    0.346      1,451          502       197 39.2%
BAL    0.343      1,379          473       185 39.1%
BOS    0.364      1,442          525       201 38.3%
NYY    0.351      1,419          498       189 37.9%
AL Avg    0.340    19,371      6,586    2,508 38.1%
MLAvg    0.339    41,119    13,939    5,147 36.9%

 

 

 

On to B.J., using the same math I looked at every player in the AL East that has more than 50 PA's.  By success rate:

  Team OBP PA ToB Runs Success
Rate
Adam Jones BAL    0.426 141    60.1 35 58%
B. J. Upton TAM    0.293 140    41.0 22 54%
Brett Gardner NYY    0.330 91    30.0 16 53%
Dioner Navarro TAM    0.211 119    25.1 13 52%
Nick Markakis BAL    0.410 161    66.0 34 52%
Brian Roberts BAL    0.378 164    62.0 31 50%
Johnny Damon NYY    0.380 150    57.0 27 47%
Evan Longoria TAM    0.399 158    63.0 29 46%
Marco Scutaro TOR    0.404 184    74.3 34 46%
Ian Kinsler TEX    0.380 167    63.5 29 46%
Vernon Wells TOR    0.316 174    55.0 25 45%
Dustin Pedroia BOS    0.410 161    66.0 30 45%
Jason Bartlett TAM    0.359 139    49.9 22 44%
Carlos Pena TAM    0.365 156    56.9 25 44%
Jason Bay BOS    0.449 158    70.9 31 44%
Gabe Gross TAM    0.366 71    26.0 11 42%
Carl Crawford TAM    0.393 163    64.1 27 42%
Kevin Youkilis BOS    0.505 109    55.0 23 42%
J.D. Drew BOS    0.369 130    48.0 20 42%
Nick Swisher NYY    0.381 139    53.0 22 42%
Kevin Millar TOR    0.328 67    22.0 9 41%
Robinson Cano NYY    0.346 156    54.0 22 41%
Scott Rolen TOR    0.386 140    54.0 22 41%
Aaron Hill TOR    0.391 179    70.0 28 40%
Ben Zobrist TAM    0.375 88    33.0 13 39%
Mark Teixeira NYY    0.342 149    51.0 20 39%
Travis Snider TOR    0.306 100    30.6 12 39%
Melky Cabrera NYY    0.394 104    41.0 16 39%
Jeff Bailey BOS    0.310 58    18.0 7 39%
Mike Lowell BOS    0.331 148    49.0 19 39%
Jose Bautista TOR    0.427 85    36.3 14 39%
Alex Rios TOR    0.326 178    58.0 22 38%
Derek Jeter NYY    0.344 157    54.0 20 37%
Jacoby Ellsbury BOS    0.340 160    54.4 20 37%
Julio Lugo BOS    0.392 51    20.0 7 35%
Gregg Zaun BAL    0.302 106    32.0 11 34%
Felix Pie BAL    0.288 81    23.3 8 34%
Lyle Overbay TOR    0.365 104    38.0 13 34%
Adam Lind TOR    0.406 160    65.0 22 34%
Cody Ransom NYY    0.226 53    12.0 4 33%
Aubrey Huff BAL    0.361 158    57.0 19 33%
Ramiro Pena NYY    0.333 55    18.3 6 33%
Cesar Izturis BAL    0.292 115    33.6 11 33%
Luke Scott BAL    0.384 112    43.0 14 33%
Rod Barajas TOR    0.336 121    40.7 13 32%
Nick Green BOS    0.352 91    32.0 10 31%
Jason Varitek BOS    0.310 116    36.0 11 31%
Akinori Iwamura TAM    0.338 139    47.0 14 30%
David Ortiz BOS    0.318 157    49.9 14 28%
Jorge Posada NYY    0.402 92    37.0 10 27%
Lou Mantanez BAL    0.294 51    15.0 4 27%
Willy Aybar TAM    0.333 57    19.0 5 26%
Gabe Kapler TAM    0.296 54    16.0 4 25%
Hideki Matsui NYY    0.355 124    44.0 10 23%
Pat Burrell TAM    0.349 126    44.0 9 20%
Ty Wigginton BAL    0.254 118    30.0 6 20%
Melvin Mora BAL    0.325 83    27.0 5 19%

 

It would appear B.J. does score quite a bit when given the opportunity.  I know the first thing you're going to mention is Navi sitting in the 4 hole.  I found this pretty interesting myself, but for a guy with a horrendous OBP (Worst among Regular Players) he does seem to be able to get over and get in on a regular basis.  I thought this was hilarious as well.  Check out that speed score and then compare it to the rest of the Rays.  Craw, oh me, oh my. 

That blip aside, you find mostly guys that have solid hitters behind them and/or have some wheels.  Keep in mind that the league average is 36.9%.  Balitmore's top 3 are feeding off eachother right now, but if BJ can bring up his OBP, we'll also have 3 in the top-10 with Bartlett and Pena knocking on the door.

Lastly, I wanted to show all the Major League teams so you can get an idea where we rank as well as other teams that you keep an eye on.

Tm PA R OBP  ToB  Success
Rate
TEX 1378 201 0.335          462 43.5%
DET 1301 181 0.337          438 41.3%
PHI 1319 184 0.343          452 40.7%
COL 1304 175 0.337          439 39.8%
TOR 1551 221 0.359          557 39.7%
TBR 1451 197 0.346          502 39.2%
BAL 1379 185 0.343          473 39.1%
STL 1348 180 0.343          462 38.9%
CHC 1320 172 0.34          449 38.3%
BOS 1442 201 0.364          525 38.3%
LAA 1316 172 0.343          451 38.1%
NYY 1419 189 0.351          498 37.9%
LAD 1484 207 0.374          555 37.3%
MIL 1353 177 0.351          475 37.3%
CLE 1486 196 0.357          531 36.9%
MIN 1387 177 0.348          483 36.7%
FLA 1407 163 0.317          446 36.5%
OAK 1265 141 0.311          393 35.8%
KCR 1370 164 0.336          460 35.6%
CIN 1350 161 0.335          452 35.6%
WSN 1404 176 0.36          505 34.8%
NYM 1393 180 0.372          518 34.7%
SEA 1355 144 0.306          415 34.7%
HOU 1344 154 0.332          446 34.5%
CHW 1271 139 0.32          407 34.2%
SFG 1327 142 0.316          419 33.9%
PIT 1328 144 0.327          434 33.2%
ATL 1370 156 0.345          473 33.0%
SDP 1350 136 0.313          423 32.2%
ARI 1347 132 0.306          412 32.0%
LgAvg 1371 172 0.339          465 37.0%
LgTot 41119 5147 0.339    13,939 36.9%

 

The Rays are 6th in this metric.  Right up there with the team's that usually come to mind when you think of high-powered offense.  We certainly looked ok today so let's see if we can keep the mojo risin' here.  I now have all Major League hitters with >= 50 PA in the workbook, which can be downloaded Success Rates for Hitting vs. Pitching .  Tomorrow I will be issuing part 2 where I look at pitching vs. batters.
.

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