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Around SBN: Post-UNC Thoughts

Breaking Down Joe Maddon

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More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

Plenty of Joe Maddon hate flowing around. You would think all of the accolades and articles he piled up last year would lead to a grace period of sorts. After all, the Rays are right around .500 nearing June, if this were last year, or the year before that, or the year before the year before that, people would be absolutely besides themselves with joy. That argument could be used for just about any Rays employee, and make no mistake, I'm hardly saying we should be happy with a .500 record, or that the results of last season are enough to forgive any sins of the present, but it does seem a bit harsh to call for Maddon's head when his actual effect on the performances are likely less than assumed.

So let's see...

 

Star-divide

Bullpen

No idea how much say Maddon has on Troy Percival or Dan Wheeler being around. He seems to try and limit their chances when possible, but they still have two of the three highest pLI on the team. His usage of Brian Shouse has been mostly good, same with the others. There's a few match-ups you can point to and say he failed, but then again, there's a few you can point to and say he succeed beautifully. Given the ridiculous amount of work the pen has endured, not too bad of a job.

Lineup

I'm not getting into the resting debate here. It's been rehashed several times, sorry, I like exploring new conversations rather than beating ones that, again, we know very little about again and again. From a technical aspect, the lineup is fine. Could you blame him for keeping Upton in the leadoff spot? Sure, but remember, Maddon was quick to drop Dioner Navarro, perhaps because of reasons that we simply don't know. Lately, Upton's bat has come to life, and not so much for Navarro just yet. Maybe this is a case of Joe playing a hunch and having it work, maybe not.

Defensive positioning

I've poured a lot of thought into this lately, mainly with some failed shift attempts. Really, I can't find a reason to blame Maddon for employing them as long as he's relying on more than one year's worth of data. Let's take David Ortiz, 2006-2008 version, as an example. During these three years, Ortiz has hit .297/.413/.596 in 1,844 plate appearances.  Using Baseball-Reference's hit location data from those years, I jotted down the pull, up middle, and opposite field numbers for each year. As we know, Ortiz' reputation is that he's a notorious pull hitter. Maddon employs a shift where he slides the second baseman into shallow right, slides the shortstop over towards second base, and slides the third baseman towards the shortstop position. Essentially, he dares said pull hitter to bunt or to hit one out of the park, otherwise, odds are he's going to be out. Ortiz pull and up the middle totals were: 81.4%, 83.2%, and 83.1%. When Ortiz puts the ball in play, he's hitting it to the right side of the infield 80-83% of the time.

At various points in the past, guys have pushed singles or bunts to the left side of the infield, reaching on a single. The thing is, Maddon isn't employing the shift on every single hitter with a discernable location split, or if he is, it's not one as accented as against guys like Ortiz, Travis Hafner, and Jason Giambi. Against a dead-pull left-handed singles hitter, he may have the shortstop cheat towards the middle by a few steps, but nothing like placing him on the other side of the infield.

In cases where Ortiz bunts, Maddon is trading increased odds of reaching base for decreased odds of turning that into extra bases. That's essentially the opposite of when he has the centerfielder play shallow. Everyone remembers the Seattle game with Gabe Kapler, but the Rays must have a study ran on defensive alignments. Consider that while Upton can't get to every ball on the warning track or every ball a few dozen feet from the infield, he gets to most of either. The extra base hits are usually more of the fault of the pitcher, while the bloopers or fliners might be the result of a well-executed pitch.

If a hitter is hitting the ball 395 feet to dead center, sure, take your two bases, but anything a dozen feet beyond second to the track is probably caught. I'm not going to try and figure out the break-even point, but we know that one point of OBP is worth somewhere between 1.5 and 2 points of SLG. The hard part is figuring out how many balls are caught or not caught due to positioning. With stat gurus like James Click and Erik Neander in the front office, I'm going to assume this is something they've already covered in more depth than I possibly could.

Etc.

This is another one of those cases; neither you nor I really know what goes on behind closed doors. We do know that players seem generally happen with him. Maddon avoids calling out players in the press and will stick up for anyone, no matter how poor their performance may be on any given day. That within itself is admirable. Like players like Troy Percival or not, Maddon will deflect blame from his players and allow them to focus on playing rather than catching up on the newest quotes or sound bites. He's shown to be stern when the job requires it and there's no reason to believe his soft-spoken mannerisms contribute negatively to long-term success. Ask Terry Francona or Joe Torre about that, neither of whom are especially skilled tacticians.

Overall

I'm running short on time here, so a few other points to address:

- Maddon is doing a good job of balancing the right field platoon.

- Also a pretty fair job getting Willy Aybar and Ben Zobrist at-bats while not taking too many away from guys like Pena, Longoria, or Crawford.

- Good job at managing the rotation for the most part. It's tough with Sonnanstine, Niemann, and Kazmir sucking for approximately 90% of their combined starts.

1 recs  |  Comment 60 comments |

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One part made me laugh

The part where you mentioned using three years of data on David Ortiz. I understand using three years of data in general, but on David Oritz? The dude is 2% of the player he was a few years ago. Obviously we are talking about the mechanics of his swing and not production, but data from 3 years ago should hold close to no weight in any forecasting of Ortiz.

Other than that I mainly agree with you.

In general I do like the shifts. I think it is critical to put in the optimal defense alignment for each pitch for each batter. Maddon seems to get that.

Also you can’t really have a Maddon post without including the rest. That is his main criticism. If you take away the main problems all you have is a fluff piece.

I have no problems with the construction of the line-up

I think the pen usage has been poor. He has left guys in for some bad matchups and he has really overused his pen. The one game where we had like 6 guys pitch for 1 out each comes to mind. A lot of this isn’t his fault given the poor starters.

There were some minor moves that I disagree with. Things such as who is playing, pinch hitters, or basic strategy. Although there is no manager out there that you will agree with 100% of the time so I don’t see that as a big deal. Although it does appear he goes against common sense and logic a bit too much just to be unconventional. He does at time “overmanage” but I don’t think that is a huge issue.

by matthan on May 18, 2009 8:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It was like 2 AM in the morning.

It was either Ortiz or someone like Hafner. I couldn’t remember everyone we used the shift on.

by R.J. Anderson on May 18, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Shifts

The Rays seem to use more shifts than most and generally I am fine with that. I do wonder if there are spray charts for hitters solely on at-bats where teams do employ shifts. Being one of the more aggressive shifting teams, this would be very good information.

As for the outfield alignment, BJ’s shallow center gives me immense joy. When he does not play, I can hardly bear to watch.

by FreeZorilla on May 18, 2009 9:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm all for BJ playing a shallow center

When BJ is out his replacement should play a couple steps deeper in most situations. I also think BJ needs to play deeper in some scenarios where we need to avoid the double. There have been some balls sail over his head that most CFers would have caught. On average it works out, but adjusting based on a scenario by scenario basis is the best bet.

by matthan on May 18, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also

How much do you think Psychology plays into hitting into the shift. Especially when you consider a guy like Oritz is pressing at the plate- knowing there are three guys to his pull side has to get in his head

by JBB on May 18, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats why Sprays vs Shfits are important

Everyone shifts vs Ortiz b/c he’s the extreme case. We shift against a lot of players that other teams do not shift against. How does the hitter spray in those situations where he is incentivized to go the opposite way? In most cases I would suspect, similar results,but there are certainly some hitters who when rewarded, can take the ball the other way.

by FreeZorilla on May 18, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aubrey Huff has been killing our shift all year

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 18, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

we need a more in depth look at how shifts have been workin’

by JBB on May 18, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wondering...

Who is calling for Maddon’s head? That seems a little much.

by BigBadBossman on May 18, 2009 10:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

www.joemaddonsucks.com

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 18, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Haha, you actually went there

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 18, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's MADDEN.

Get it right, Sports Chief.

by Suttree on May 18, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

R.J. Andersen will always be my Sports Chief.

- Until The Next Time Is NOW

Today, we are all Honkballers.

by RATW on May 18, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, you can be MY wingman anytime

HIGH WAY TO THE DANGER ZONE

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 18, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You are UNSAFE.

I don’t know who I’m more worried about. You or the enemy.

by Suttree on May 18, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's kick the tires and light the fires

I have a need, A NEED FOR SPEED

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 18, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Im surprised

That we even had an article on this. Great analysis and all RJ, but I didnt know anybody was even upset with Maddon. I think considering how terrible the starting pitching has been, and the fact 2 key bats (Burrell and Upton) havent really produced, I would make the argument that Maddon has been better this year than last. And the whole thing yesterday where Crawford was ready to kill Martinez for Maddon speaks volumes of his man management. I would have no problem saying we have the best manager in the game right now and stand by that.

by BJ the Bossman on May 18, 2009 10:29 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Just for the record

I wasnt pointing anything towards you specifically RJ, just surprised there are people that unhappy with him in general.

by BJ the Bossman on May 18, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pena has an .OBP of 370 since getting his rest.

Season OBP is .372.

6 walks, 8 Ks, 2 singles, 2 doubles. 4-21 over that stretch.

This includes 0-8 vs lefties with 4Ks and 1 intentional walk.

The struggle has been against the lefties. Hes reached safely 9 of 19 times vs righties. Without Burrell in the lineup pitchers are throwing around him.

by FreeZorilla on May 18, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

His OBP vs lefties last year was .302

The lefty arms he faced outside of Huff are very tough on lefties.
Lefties are 2-20 vs Sherill with 6 Ks and no XBH
Lefties are 7-35 vs Laffy with 9 Ks and 0 XBH

Again OBP vs righties was .473. There is nothing here.

by FreeZorilla on May 18, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They'll make a decision on whether to keep Izzy.

If they do, that means cutting somebody else or trading Wheeler. Wheeler’s the only guy I see expendable in any situation. Balfour, Howell, Nelson, Cormier, Shouse and (sadly, unless he pitches like last night on a regular basis) Percival are pretty much guaranteed spots.

by Suttree on May 18, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am a big Joe Maddon fan.

I think he gets a lot out of his players and I think the players play hard for him. I also think his players enjoy playing for him.

I think it should also be mentioned that he has supported Beej heavily this year, which is good because he benched him a few times last year. Maddon supported Beej by keeping him in the leadoff role when he was struggling, and also by barking at Wedge/Wood when they threw up and in at him.

I also like how Maddon fuses some “moneyball” theories (specifically taking pitches and walks) with some non-moneyball philosphies (good defense and sbs, although now Oak seems to value good defense up the middle).

by walkoffwalk on May 18, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Moneyball theories are pretty much do what nobody else values.

So defense is(was at this point) the new Moneyball philosophy. Now it might be guys who can maintain high BABIPs, like Crawford/Upton.

by R.J. Anderson on May 18, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like that'd be difficult to track.

How do you identify someone who maintains a high BABIP while being undervalued? Seems like you’d have to be able to adjust BABIP for parks, translate minor league BABIP to the MLB level, and avoid small-sample size issues.

by Suttree on May 18, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think he'll be good.

He was solid during the draft, he’s got a knack for ridiculous/funny descriptions, and he’s a film hound.

by Suttree on May 18, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My problem

Is that it doesnt matter who is in the booth. ESPN brainwashes and force feeds the analysts info anyway so Gruden wont be able to express his own opinions anyway. That being said he will be much better than Kornheiser and will probably be the best theyve had in some time.

by BJ the Bossman on May 18, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gruden will be exceptional

True student of the game, and funny to boot. He and Jaws make a dream team of analysts. I’d rather bring back Mike Patrick for the play by play.

by FreeZorilla on May 18, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So you like Kornholer?

I would rather they put a Muppet in there than another season of Tony checking out dudes asses and doing his 24/7 Tony Randall impersonation.

Gruden should do a good job until he gets bored with it.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 18, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What exactly did you like?

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 18, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you stop listening to him he will go away

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 18, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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