Success in Scoring, Part 2: Pitchers stopping hitters

This story references another piece I did yesterday that looked at the likelihood of a player or team scoring once a man reached.  It can be found HERE.  You may recall, or you may not there weren't many comments so if you like this go back and read that, that Bossman Junior was #2 in the AL East in a stat I'm calling Success Rate.  Without getting into the math again, basically he scores 54% of the time that he reaches base.  For comparison, the AL Average for all players is 38% and the Major League Average is 37%.  So thats very good for Beej and a few others of the guys that were above.  You can find all Major League Players at the following downloadable file: Success Rates for Hitting vs. Pitching

Time to roll with the new.  In this installment I wanted to look at the other side of the coin.  What Pitchers/Teams are good at not allowing a man to score after he has reached.  Here is the same analysis as before, only this time, we will look at pitching vs. hitting.  The AL East:

Tm PAa RA OBPa  ToBa Success
BOS 1452 184 0.354            514 35.8%
TOR 1463 169 0.315            461 36.7%
TBR 1420 185 0.345            490 37.8%
NYY 1395 206 0.359            501 41.1%
BAL 1424 216 0.359            511 42.3%
LgTot 41119 5147 0.339      13,939 36.9%

 

In this case a lower percentage is a good thing.  As you can see the Rays come in third in the division, slightly below average, but nowhere near the disaster zone that is the Yanks and O's.  Think about that for a second, for every runner that gets on base against NY and BAL, there is a 41% and 42% chance that that runner will come home, respectively.  Lets see what else we can glean from this.

Now, the AL East is a very good division, so it is somewhat surprising that only two teams (notice their place in the standings) would come in as better than average at such an integral part of the game.  How does this translate league-wide. 

Tm PAa RA OBPa  ToBa Success
LAD 1396 141 0.315            440 32.1%
SFG 1368 156 0.342            468 33.3%
NYM 1376 156 0.335            461 33.8%
PIT 1311 150 0.338            443 33.9%
KCR 1351 148 0.322            435 34.0%
CIN 1349 152 0.329            444 34.2%
ATL 1344 153 0.33            444 34.5%
STL 1349 158 0.335            452 35.0%
OAK 1296 150 0.331            429 35.0%
MIL 1334 151 0.321            428 35.3%
CHW 1343 166 0.349            469 35.4%
SEA 1422 169 0.334            475 35.6%
HOU 1366 173 0.355            485 35.7%
BOS 1452 184 0.354            514 35.8%
CHC 1306 157 0.331            432 36.3%
TOR 1463 169 0.315            461 36.7%
FLA 1431 178 0.338            484 36.8%
COL 1310 165 0.341            447 36.9%
ARI 1394 172 0.327            456 37.7%
TBR 1420 185 0.345            490 37.8%
PHI 1336 179 0.351            469 38.2%
DET 1293 162 0.327            423 38.3%
SDP 1380 186 0.35            483 38.5%
LAA 1319 172 0.338            446 38.6%
TEX 1361 176 0.335            456 38.6%
WSN 1398 212 0.373            521 40.7%
CLE 1452 214 0.36            523 40.9%
NYY 1395 206 0.359            501 41.1%
MIN 1380 191 0.336            464 41.2%
BAL 1424 216 0.359            511 42.3%
LgAvg 1371 172 0.339            465 37.0%
LgTot 41119 5147 0.339      13,939 36.9%

 

As you can see the Rays come in at 19th.  At first glance this passes the smell test as you see good pitching teams at the top and bad pitching teams at the bottom.  Good pitchers a) don't allow a lot of baserunners (especially extra base hits)  and b) can bear down once they have runners on.  Another thing that may stand out is all the NL Teams at the top.  Clearly, having pitchers hit will, help you in denying baserunners. 

First, the Rays staff:

  Tm PAa RA  OBPa   ToBa  Success
*J.P. Howell TBR 70 5    0.348         24 20.5%
Lance Cormier TBR 118 7    0.271         32 21.9%
*Brian Shouse TBR 52 5    0.314         16 30.6%
Jeff Niemann TBR 159 22    0.403         64 34.3%
James Shields TBR 220 26    0.327         72 36.1%
Matt Garza TBR 190 20    0.268         51 39.3%
Joe Nelson TBR 75 11    0.365         27 40.2%
Grant Balfour TBR 73 11    0.370         27 40.7%
*Scott Kazmir TBR 198 34    0.394         78 43.6%
Andy Sonnanstine TBR 162 29    0.401         65 44.6%
Dan Wheeler TBR 59 9    0.293         17 52.1%

 

Shields and Niemann, are our only starters that are below ML average.  The familiar names in the bullpen show up in the right places (JP/Lance/Shouse good, Wheeler not good).  FWIW, Percy didn't qualify due to PAa, but I just ran the numbers and he is at 35.3%.  The best starters in MLB:

  Tm PA R  OBP   ToB  Success
Zack Greinke KCR 226 5    0.228       52 9.7%
*Johan Santana NYM 186 8    0.245       46 17.6%
Johnny Cueto CIN 181 10    0.267       48 20.7%
Jair Jurrjens ATL 194 12    0.296       57 20.9%
*Wandy Rodriguez HOU 199 12    0.274       55 22.0%
Chad Billingsley LAD 220 15    0.305       67 22.4%
*Cliff Lee CLE 233 18    0.330       77 23.4%
Matt Cain SFG 186 15    0.332       62 24.3%
Brian Bannister KCR 124 9    0.290       36 25.0%
*Dallas Braden OAK 184 15    0.322       59 25.3%
Josh Johnson FLA 219 16    0.280       61 26.1%
*Erik Bedard SEA 177 14    0.301       53 26.3%
Danny Haren ARI 215 13    0.230       49 26.3%
Trevor Cahill OAK 170 17    0.365       62 27.4%
*Zach Duke PIT 201 16    0.287       58 27.7%
*Mark Buehrle CHW 184 15    0.286       53 28.5%
*Eric Stults LAD 164 16    0.337       55 28.9%
*Barry Zito SFG 180 18    0.337       61 29.7%
Joba Chamberlain NYY 155 18    0.390       60 29.8%
Tim Wakefield BOS 200 20    0.335       67 29.9%
Derek Lowe ATL 204 20    0.327       67 30.0%
Jered Weaver LAA 187 14    0.249       47 30.1%
*Paul Maholm PIT 216 21    0.319       69 30.5%

 

Quite a few real good wheelers and dealers in there.  There is a ton more stuff in here that I would like to show, but I feel this is going on too long as it is.  Feel free to download the workbook:  Success Rate: Pitchers vs. Batters

It is in similar format as the previous article with tabs for different sheets.  Do your own sorts if you want or build upon this.  I don't plan on updating until probably the All Star Break to see who could sustain this (if it is sustainable) and who fell off the cliff.

 

 

 

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