but in situations where a pitcher is young possibilities for improvement need to be correctly projected. All anyone wanted to talk about was the fact that Edwin’s FIP and tRA were not as good as Sonny and decidedly ignored the fact that he had much better stuff. Furthermore, there were some indications that he had potential to develop into a better pitcher. Particularly his stretch/windup splits showed he pitched better from the stretch perhaps indicating that some improvement in mechanics could pay dividends.

If all he had to do was learn a new slider (as some have suggested this is a reason behind his improvement this year) to become a #2/3 level starter than the Rays made a poor projection. They should be blamed for that and not let off the hook because the stats backed up their reasoning. Stats should play a complementary role with scouting-based projections on young players even if they have already been in the majors for a couple years. Ignoring one in favor of the other is detrimental and does not mean the “process” behind the decision was correct.

Everyone will tell you that Sonny couldn’t have brought back the trade value that Edwin did. Of course, they have no proof for this and in a league where GMs are becoming increasingly more aware of sabermetrics, I would not have been surprised to see Sonny bring back a comparable player to Joyce in return. Further, the difference between Edwin’s salary and Sonny’s is not particularly large (~1.8mil) and could have been somewhat offset by playing Ruggiano instead of signing Kapler. Or it could have been completely offset by using a cheaper in-house option at DH (i.e. Aybar or Zobrist or a platoon).

And don’t think that I am just saying this because Edwin is doing well now. I was one of the leaders in the promotion of Jackson all last year. It remains to be seen whether Jackson will continue this streak, but if he does it is more than fair to question the wisdom behind trading him. Personally, I didn’t want to see any of the pitchers traded outside of Hammell.