Early May Update on Carlos Pena's Homerun Total

by R.J. Anderson on May 2, 2009 2:11 PM EDT

We did this a while ago, may as well do it again. Let's see what homerun range Carlos Pena is looking at.

Balls in play over the last two years:

2007: 355

2008: 328

Amount of flyballs:

2007: 158

2008: 165

Amount of homeruns:

2007: 46

2008 :31

So put all of that together and we get that Pena puts about 47% of his balls into play in the air, and that of those balls into play, about 24% of them are homeruns. Assuming Pena puts about 340 balls into play, and 47% are flyballs, that gives you 160 flyballs. The good news is that the 10 homeruns he's hit can't be taken away. Over these next ~120 flyballs, if Pena regresses to his career HR/FB% of 20.1%, he still winds up with more than 35 homeruns for the season. That's only about four more than the projection systems were pegging him for and seems like a pretty realistic amount.

Of course that could always fluctuate up/down along with his flyball rates, but this is a better way of projecting forward than saying, "Hey, he's got 100 plate appearances and 10 homeruns. If he gets 600 plate appearances he'll hit 60 homeruns!"

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In this time of economic and swine flu crises...

…we need a personable slugger who can hit 60 HRs. Why do you have to be such a wet blanket with your numbers RJ?

by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 2, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions

Albert Pujols might hit 60.

by R.J. Anderson on May 2, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Carlos will hit 63

He hit 9 in April. If he continues to hit 9 in May, June, July, August, September, and October you get that number. I used excel to confirm this, so I’m pretty confident it will happen.

All things LONGORIA!

by RalphieTheRay on May 2, 2009 3:28 PM EDT reply actions

So if I read this correctly you're saying that Los is getting 60 and Evan is getting 42

Bash Brothers for the win

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 2, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions