UZR Update
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:02 PM EDT
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PrintTake these with a caveat: if three years of defensive data equals one of offensive, then ~40 games of defensive data is equal to about 13 games of offensive data. These tell us what has happened, but give us little more predictive value. Any player with less than 50 innings of data at that positon was not included, because get real people.
| Name | Pos | Inn | ARM | DPR | RngR | ErrR | UZR |
| Evan Longoria | 3B | 325 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 1 | 5.6 | |
| Gabe Gross | RF | 151 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 4.2 | |
| Ben Zobrist | RF | 118 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 3.8 | |
| Gabe Kapler | RF | 91.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.6 | |
| Carlos Pena | 1B | 342.2 | 0.2 | 1.9 | -1.1 | 1.1 | |
| Carl Crawford | LF | 337.2 | -1.3 | 2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | |
| Jason Bartlett | SS | 333.2 | -0.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1 | |
| B.J. Upton | CF | 282.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | |
| Akinori Iwamura | 2B | 331.2 | -0.2 | 0.2 | -1.4 | -1.4 |
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If Ben Zobrist were to come through the entire season with a +3 UZR...
and keeps slugging .600… I mean, what do we do with that information? Get down on our knees and pray?
Zobrist RF experiment
For being the equivalent of the 1st 13 games of data since having a full Spring Training in the outfield, I’d say the Rays couldn’t be more pleased with Zobrist’s RF development. Keep progressing with more innings Z man!
Gross is a better fielder
And his bat is better vs righties than his traditional stats indicate to date.
To me...
The overall improvement of Zobrist this season has put him far and above Gross IMO. I love Gross’ arm, but I would also love to see him used as a defensive replacement rather than not having BenZo’s bat in the order.
Gross has been solid vs. righties this year, but I like BenZo’s power vs. righties a lot more.
Gross
I’m all for trading Gross if a good deal comes along but his bat has more pop than he has shown year to date. His line drives are way up which is good. His HR/FB is at 6.3%. whereas he has been over 11% past 2 years. Platoon them, Zo can fill in at other spots as well. Gross needs to play and have his luck turn to have trade value.
i only ask b/c i wonder if it takes position into account,
i.e. arm is less important in LF then it is in RF…
It takes position into account in the sense that these are relative to positional averages.
I’m not sure if the ARM thing applies to LF/CF/RF, but I’m pretty sure it does, yes.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
From the Glossary:
DPR (double play runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
this all seems terribly biased against LF's
1, they always have worse arms
2, they have the least amount of opportunities to double up a player
3, how does CC have less range then Zobrist, and Gross?
Relative to position.
And 3. it’s a small sample size, look at Carl’s past, he’s about 99.5% certain to finish with a higher UZR than Gross and Zobrist.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe it's just me, but an eyeball check sees that there's about an equal # of LF/RFers on the ARM leaderboard.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
That or...
Take these with a caveat: if three years of defensive data equals one of offensive, then ~40 games of defensive data is equal to about 13 games of offensive data. These tell us what has happened, but give us little more predictive value
Nyjer is a pretty nice sleeper though.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
This isn't really the appropriate place to be discussing the perceived weaknesses of UZR
No one here created it.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 20, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
That helps a bit.
But you can’t click on the fielding links to get a more in depth picture of UZR, RngR etc
How does this compare
with some of the player’s historical data? Should we expect Aki to regress upwards?
That's worded horribly
essentially I wanted to see historical stats to see if guys are playing out of their asses right now, or if they are in line with their personal mean, not league mean.
Hard to say, because we only have one year of Aki at second.
I’d expect him to finish closer to 0, but anything within -5 < x < 0 wouldn’t shock me.
Upton, Barty, CC should go up.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
New to some of these stats
but a 0 essentially means he is performing in line with the average of all players at his position, correct? So a -1.4 essentially means (fielding only) that he is underperforming compared to league average.
Yeah, that is correct.
Iwamura at 0 means he’s an average second baseman, at -5 that means he’s five runs worse than average, at 5 he’s five runs better, etc. and each position has its own baseline set to 0. So if Kapler finishes at 0 and B.J. finishes at zero, you would still say B.J. is the better defender because he played a more difficult position.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Alright, got that part
Thanks for the info. If Aki (or any player) were a -5 UZR, that’s 5 runs worse over the course of a season? How should that info be taken in context?
I'm not sure what you mean by taken in context.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
If a player has a
UZR of -5, that means they are 5 runs worse than the average player at that position, correct? If that’s the case, does that mean over the course of a season, they project out to “allowing” 5 more runs?
I’m just trying to figure out how that 5 runs is supposed to be read. To me, it says that Aki, at this point in time, will “allow” 1.4 mroe runs this year than an average player and Longo will "save’ 5.6 runs compared to the average 3B
Oh, yeah.
Sorry, I thought you meant in terms of predictive value.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm just a newb
with some of these stats. Trying to figure out what the hell some of it means is frustrating sometimes. But it helps IMMENSELY in watching games and being able to objectively look at players with something other than AVG, ERA, etc
JB's UZR
I was interested to see JB’s UZR actually went down last year from his ‘07 #’s (7 something to 2.1). I didn’t see him play much in 07, but I heard some people in Minnesota claiming he was a defensive liability.
That's funny, because he rated extremely well during his time in Minnesota.
And scouts have always liked him.
People in Minnesota are clueless
And I’m pretty sure his knee injury made him a bit worse last year than normal.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
26 errors
I’m sure they were overly concerned with that stat. But it’s obvious to see that the guy is a great fielder.
They don't charge you with errors if you don't get to the balls in the hole.
Ask Michael Young how he won a Gold Glove.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
What is driving BJ's UZR down?
I mean I know its tough to go real high as a CF, and Im not expecting a Beltran like +10, but I figured it would be a little higher. Does the fact he plays a little shallow and some balls burn him hurt his UZR? I figured the few shallow ones that he gets the a normal CF would not would balance it out.
Actually, Beltran has been rated pretty low so far.
Which speaks to how little value these numbers have moving forward.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh I just meant that one year a few years back where Beltran posted that ridiculous +10 or whatever it was
But yea I guess just take these with a grain of salt. But do you think BJ’s will be higher by the end of the year?
by BJ the Bossman on May 20, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes.
Last year he was ~top 3, right behind Beltran if I recall. Wouldn’t shock me to see him in the 5 < x < 15 range.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Won't happen til June 14th.
Doesn’t say either.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Only
If Navi is wearing a nice dress. Besides that no
by BJ the Bossman on May 20, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
If anyone is interested
Here is the players with 08 totals vs 09 YTD (from RJ)
Player 2008 2009
Longoria 14.9 5.6
Gross 14.5 4.2
Kapler -1.4 2.6
Pena 3.9 1.1
Crawford 19.6 1.1
Bartlett 2.1 1
Upton 10.3 0.8
Aki 1.6 -1.4
- I omitted Zobrist since he has no relevant 08 data.
If we wanted to look at a player’s historical mean, A) does it have any relevance and B) would we just take their prior years UZR and divide by # of years? Will that skew the #’s in any way (i.e. learning a position like Beej)
There's a few ways of weighing the data.
If you can, use three years — some of these are a bit tricky though, like Evan/B.J./Aki/etc.) From there you can either just do a crude average, or weigh them on a 5-4-3 scale. So say we were doing Pena, you could do:
.5 * 2008
.4 * 2007
.3 * 2006
Add them together, etc.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
Bossman Junior: Better future for an Upton brother… Justin or B.J.?
SportsNation Steve Phillips: I think Justin will be better in the long run because of his power potential. I’m not convinced that B.J. will ever again be a 20+ home run guy. They swing and miss a lot, but the bigger impact bat is Justin.
Steve Phillips knows baseball, yet doesn’t know defense and position matters.
Justin is brimming with intangibles
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 20, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh my.
Beltran Stays (New York): Steve, while I respect your work, I disagree with your statements about Carlos Beltran on Sunday Night Baseball. The guy has done nothing but produce, and name me a CF who’s better in the game right now.
SportsNation Steve Phillips: If the Mets don’t make the playoffs, I firmly believe they need to reconfigure the core of this team. While Beltran does have talent, I just don’t see him as a winning player. Even after my comments on Sunday night, Beltran let a fly ball drop in between himself and Angel Pagan in the Dodger game. I see him putting up numbers but not making plays to win games. I would take Torii Hunter, Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, and Nate McLouth over Beltran, and use the financial difference to improve the team in other ways. Beltran isn’t a $17 million dollar a year player. He just doesn’t have the kind of impact for that kind of money.
SportsNation Steve Phillips: Many people think that Alex Rodriguez is the best player in the game, but he’s never won anything. I look at Beltran in a similar fashion as Rodriguez—a great talent that just doesn’t seem to have what it takes to win championships. Maybe the Mets can keep him and add pieces to the core around him and still win. But when you’re dealing with a budget and the screams of immediacy in New York, I’m not sure the Mets can wait to piece it together around him. I know there are a lot of people who disagree with me, but it’s just the way I see it. Beltran is a very good person and a solid citizen, in addition to being a guy who puts up numbers. I like him, I just don’t think they can win with him.
The best part of this...
“Beltran is not a winning player”
He’s made it to the NLCS twice in his career, I believe. Sizemore, Hunter, Granderson, and McLouth have made it to like three CS combined. Maybe four.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess Steve Phillips missed Beltran single handedly willing the Astros into the playoffs.
Or all the huge home runs he hit in September trying to get the Mets into the playoffs last year.
Nope! Missed one fly ball… that Gary Matthews, though! Did you see his catch a few years ago? WINNING BALLPLAYER.
My favorite part
Is how he cites that one play where the ball dropped between him and Pagan. The very next day Beltran blasted Pagan publicly saying he called him off and obviously its always the CF ball. Would Steve have been happier if Beltran ran into Pagan at full speed to catch it? HOW DID THIS MAN RUN A BASEBALL TEAM
by BJ the Bossman on May 20, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
You mean like how Beltran/Cameron collidded as Mets a few years back?
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
But Steve was satisfied so thats all that mattered
by BJ the Bossman on May 20, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Since when do the Mets care about a budget?
Opinions are like toilet paper, Steve.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 20, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
DPR
I’m looking at MVB’s # (-.9). Does this take into account balls that he fields, or plays where he is the turn man?
So the Rays
are an average team as far as DP go (Longo .9, Pena .2, Bartlett -.9, Aki -.2). Yet, they rate higher than average in other categories. That’s interesting.
How does UZR account for the shift?
If evan is playing “Shortstop” and he makes a play is that considered a out of range play?
This one I'm unsure about.
I’d have to ask MGL or Appelman, but I would have to imagine they adjust for those plays, otherwise it would show up as a huge outlier.
by R.J. Anderson on May 20, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
That was my thought
We must play more shift’s than any other team. That would spike our numbers. I’m not sure how they can adjust for those plays, but i am also not nearly as smart as the guys who came up with the system
UZR
Any link to how the components are calculated? Isn’t UZR/150 the better number to use to account for PT?
I'm thrilled to see after last night's offensive explosion
that Zobrist and his
13.9% BB% (3rd on team)
.376 OBP (4th on team)
.621 SLG (2nd on team)
.345 ISO (1st on team
.420 wOBA (3rd on team)
are not in the lineup. This makes sense
The Madden way is to rest a player once he is playing well
And play the ones slumping nonstop. That is the Madden way
Seriously I don’t technically disagree with it. Aybar and Gross are good choices tonight.
I would argue that UZR doesn't really tell you what HAS happened, which is why you need lots of data for it to mean anything.
The biggest issue is time. A ground ball to the SS hole in a certain park off a certain hitter-pitcher handedness combination could take 1.5 seconds or 2.5 seconds to reach the hole. The first is a tough play and the second is difficult, but both are given the same difficulty by UZR. All that stuff tends to equal out in the long run, which is why it’s useful, but short term, when there are only a couple balls to some locations, we don’t know if they’ve been of the 1.5 or 2.5 seconds variety.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Good stuff as always Sky.
So how long is the “long run?” Can we even take a year’s data at face value in explaining what HAS happened.
There is no cut-off where you go from meaningless to meaningful.
It’s a continuum. Right now, we might need 80% regression. At the All-Star break, we might need 60% regression. After the season, 40% regression. The more data you have, the more sure of its results you can be, but there’s never an ah-hah moment. Right now the fielding stats aren’t worthless, you just need to regress them a ton.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
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