How Much have Scott Kazmir's Strikeouts Truly Declined?

by FreeZorilla on May 21, 2009 7:47 AM EDT

Like a once mild cancer spreading through the body, even post-1st inning Scott Kazmir has been a total failure the past two starts. His decline in velocity and K/9 is pretty well documented. Sadly, the story behind his strikeout numbers is worse than the K/9 indicates. Below is a table comparing the K/9 of each pitcher in the Ray's rotation and his strikeouts as a % of total batters faced:

	K/9	K%
Garza	7.5	20.74%
Kazmir	6.97	16.16%
Shields	5.97	16.00%
Sonny	5.36	12.83%
Niemann	4.54	11.05%

Kazmir is a full strikeout per 9 ahead of James Shields a percentage difference of16.8%. However, when you look at what percentage of batters Kazmir has struck out vs. Shields its only 0.16% more or a percentage difference of 0.01%. Kazmir is facing so many more hitters compared to how many he should be. Let's take a look at his historical K/9 and Strikeout %'s.

Year	K%	K/9	SwStrike%
2004	26.97%	11.07	12.60%
2005	21.27%	8.42	10.10%
2006	26.72%	10.14	12.20%
2007	26.94%	10.41	12.10%
2008	25.90%	9.81	11.80%
2009	16.16%	6.97	6.40%

The decline in K/9 from 2008 to 2009 is an alarming 30.0%. Evacuate the building because the % decline in Strikeout % in that period is 37.6%. Scott Kazmir is striking out batters at a 37.6% slower pace than last year. His swinging strike % has declined by an even greater 45.8%. Scott Kazmir needs a break from Major League Baseball.

(Data prior to last night's start and compiled during the debacle)

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I watched the game on tv

and one pitch in the dirt the tv radar gun clocked at 96 mph. My heart jumped with glee that he could still throw hard, but then he never got back over 91, so it was probably just a bad radar gun read. Still, there is hope!

by behn on May 21, 2009 8:17 AM EDT reply actions

Pitch F/X

had him topped out at 92.1. If you subscribe to my theory that they adjusted the machine back to normal (1.5 MPH upwards) theat would have him topping out the same as his last start.

by FreeZorilla on May 21, 2009 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Based off of Kaz's earlier comments

I’m not sure if I like his old mechanics or the “new” ones he discovered better.

/sarcasm

by Buc Wild on May 21, 2009 8:28 AM EDT reply actions

Cotton Candy

by Sveet on May 21, 2009 8:41 AM EDT reply actions

Something is definitely wrong with Kaz

He needs help. Now.

AC/DC + Tampa Bay Rays = Big Balls on a Budget

by Orlando Rays on May 21, 2009 9:01 AM EDT reply actions

This is sad - and frightening.

I find it hard to believe he is washed up at this point; he’s still fairly young and it’s not like the organization gave him the Kerry Wood treatment. Seriously, what are the Rays options at this point?

getting tired of excuses.

by Deepdoodle on May 21, 2009 9:26 AM EDT reply actions

I agree,

but I don’t think they should do anything drastic. It is too late to trade him. DFA would be tarded. I think we have to put him on 15-day DL and send him to Dr. James A. Get an MRI done. Do everything possible to check it out. If everything is ok he still gets 2 weeks to cool it down for a minute. This seems much worse than a “dead arm” problem. We bring Price up a couple of starts earlier than we wanted, but the problem comes up when he is set to come off the DL and still can’t throw right.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 21, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions

It is a tough scenario

We don’t want to give up on him and have him come back as a uberstud, but we also can’t let him ruin our season.

by matthan on May 21, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree on the not-giving up.

But I’m less worried about the organization looking stupid if he comes back strong than I am about seeing him pitch well again. I miss watching Kazmir – the old Kaz. He was one of the foundational blocks for this team becoming good. This is just hard to watch.

getting tired of excuses.

by Deepdoodle on May 21, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Send him to the minors

He has to have options left.

He can work on whatever he has to work on down there and not worry about getting shelled. Once he gets it back on track then we can bring him back up. We have plenty of options that we could bring up (Talbot, Davis, Price)

by Sveet on May 21, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Pitchers with worse K:BB than Kaz

Daniel Cabrera
Trevor John Billy Bob Cahill
Mike Pelfrey
Fausto Carmona
Aaron Cook
Jon Garland
John Maine
Ian Snell

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=0

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 21, 2009 10:26 AM EDT reply actions

not oliver perez?

by walkoffwalk on May 21, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Pitchers who have given up more runs then Kaz this year

(crickets)

by Sveet on May 21, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

That doesn't matter when Kaz can't consistently make it 6 innings

AC/DC + Tampa Bay Rays = Big Balls on a Budget

by Orlando Rays on May 21, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

I think you missed the point of that

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 21, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

MAKE SOME MOTHER EFFING MOVES

sonny to the pen
trade wheeler and nelson for two bags of balls and a shoe shine kit
call up price & davis
kaz to dl

all our problems solved, and we’ll stop giving up 8 runs a game.

by davidsmarch on May 21, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions

What if that doesn't work?

Which it wont.

Davis isn’t ready.

What happens to our bullpen?

What good is it to put Kaz on the DL if he isn’t hurt? I’d rather have him in AAA.

by BigBadBossman on May 21, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

ok,

try sending kaz to AAA and see what happened. you put him on the DL and let him pitch a month in the minors to “rehab” and get straight. his velocity is down, just say he has shoulder soreness like every other team does. Davis is ready, and what about our bullpen? sonny slides in, wheeler and nelson are gone, izzy stays, and we have a full pen and a full rotation.

by davidsmarch on May 21, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions