True Outcome Hitting

by FreeZorilla on May 22, 2009 2:44 PM EDT

We look at pitcher's Fielding Independant Pitching to get a measure of performance with defense removed from the equation. Earlier this year, we fiddled with team Fielding Independant Hitting. What about on the individual level?

FIP is measured as (((13*HR)+(3*BB)-(2*K))/IP)+ a league based constant (3.2 in 2008). It is used to get a better feel for pitcher performance than ERA and to help identify under/over valued pitchers.

With hitting there is no need to compare ERA to FIP. I don't know the rationale behind the multipliers but they must be there for a reason.

If we keep the formula the same and then divide by plate appearances instead of IP and remove the ERA reference constant, we will call that the True Outcome Hitting %.

((13*HR)+(3*BB)-(2*K))/IP

Here are the TOH leaders in the AL with a minimum of 100 PAs.

Name

Team

Pict

True Outcome Hitting

Jason Bay

Red Sox

178

1.084

Ben Zobrist

Rays

104

1.029

Justin Morneau

Twins

187

0.925

Carlos Pena

Rays

182

0.912

Mark Teixeira

Yankees

175

0.897

Brandon Inge

Tigers

156

0.821

Torii Hunter

Angels

169

0.769

Ian Kinsler

Rangers

189

0.767

Curtis Granderson

Tigers

183

0.765

Carlos Quentin

White Sox

140

0.764

Nick Swisher

Yankees

163

0.761

Johnny Damon

Yankees

174

0.741

Kevin Youkilis

Red Sox

118

0.737

Miguel Cabrera

Tigers

165

0.721

Victor Martinez

Indians

192

0.698

Lyle Overbay

Blue Jays

120

0.683

Jim Thome

White Sox

130

0.669

Russell Branyan

Mariners

150

0.667

Marco Scutaro

Blue Jays

209

0.636

Thats pretty high company for a pinch hitting specialist, no?

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

Nice!

Assuming the constant isn’t causing any problems. Not quite as all encompassing as FIP, but certainly tells who the best sluggers are.

by Suttree on May 22, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions

Why aren't hits taken into consideration with these formulas?

And I don’t understand why strikeouts are added to home runs for pitchers in the formula. Strikeouts are good for pitchers and home runs are bad….

And for hitters it is just the opposite. Home runs are good but strike outs are bad.

The signs shouldn’t be the same?

by matthan on May 22, 2009 2:40 PM EDT reply actions

Its - K for both, typo

I’ll fix

by FreeZorilla on May 22, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

spreadsheet was correct though*

by FreeZorilla on May 22, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

oh your fanpost wrote the formula wrong

This is what you have for hitters:
((13*HR)(3*BB)(2*K))/IP

Your formula is actually
((13*HR)+(3*BB)-(2*K))/PA

by matthan on May 22, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

when i copy pasted your formula for some reason the "+" were omitted between the terms in the numerator

by matthan on May 22, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Non HR Hits are subject to defense

This takes defense out of the equation

by FreeZorilla on May 22, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Strikeouts really aren't bad.

They’re not worse than any other out, except for maybe GIDP.

by Suttree on May 22, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

No chance to get a hit or reach on error

also situationally they can be costly (BJ special: runner on 3rd <1 out). Pitchers try to strike hitters out for a reason.

by FreeZorilla on May 22, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not saying they're good, but there are a lot of really great hitters who strike out regularly.

by Suttree on May 22, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep, this list for example

by FreeZorilla on May 22, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Strikeouts are worse

We would have 2 or 3 more wins if we made contact instead of striking out.

In the vast majority of scenarios a strikeout is the same as any other sort of out. However in certain situations the value between contact that results in an out and a strike out is far greater than an out.

by matthan on May 22, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Even in double play situations you would prefer a strikeout as a pitcher

No guarantee of a clean turn (see Morneau v. Rays)

by FreeZorilla on May 22, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm sorry to say, but this is a bit flawed.

Each of these hitters (outside of Zobrist) have had lengthy carrers, its not fair to them or to Benzo to be comparing them based on this small a sample size. Yes, it may be a quarter of the year, but less than 200 PA (and just over 100 for Zobrist) still isn’t cutting it.

Zobrists’ line drive rate is going to go up, his fly ball rate will fall back down, his HR/FB rate will normalize (all of this to a degree, mind you, but no way does it stay where it is right now). His home runs will drop and this thinking will all be a thing of the past. Its hard to go against the fact that his power has increased, but he isn’t one of the top sluggers as he has too many variables that are unsustainable.

by Navi's_Navy on May 22, 2009 5:51 PM EDT reply actions

I'm sorry for the title

I actually like what you did with the variation of FIP, I just don’t feel the numbers are so indicative of how good a batter is yet, and I think that is understandable given the sample size/track records.

by Navi's_Navy on May 22, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Its meant to show how well he has performed this year

not to say he an equal to these players, but that he has performed at a high enough level to earn some regular playing time to increase his sample size. His stats from pre-08 are the only thing holding him back, and thats silly.

by FreeZorilla on May 22, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

A Reminder of your Post on 4/13/09

I tihnk you are still not giving him nearly enough credit…..

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/4/13/833123/zobrist-of-defensive-analysis#14091558

Zobrist – .327 wOBA ((this is assuming similar playing time to last year. Playing in all situations I would tack off .03-.07 off of this projection))

So in conclusion, Zobrist will probably cost the team 0 – 7 runs for batting, will probably make that up evenly in fielding. Zobrist will be pretty much dead average unless you expect bigger things on either side of the ball (just to make a note, not one projection system, not even Bill James, has Zobrsit having nearly a .250 iSO or a .500 SLG again. I think the patience is there, he showed it in the minors, and that K rate can still come down, but that power was most likely an anomaly).

by FreeZorilla on May 22, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions

you know, people keep saying that to me

I probably am not giving him enough credit. I will say that the above post was from before the year. I would still be surprised to see him finish over a .350-.360 wOBA given the playing time he has been given now, but I’ll tackle why I’m not a huge fan in a fanpost at some point.

by Navi's_Navy on May 23, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I really like these numbers

and thanks for doing the work. Things like this is why I love to read this sight. A lot of good opinions that are actually backed up with facts.

REC’d

by behn on May 22, 2009 10:10 PM EDT reply actions

Also, if you know

or if anyone else knows why the formula is what it is, or a place I can go to understand what the numbers in the formula mean, I would appreciate it. (e.g. why is it hr X 13, why not times 12?)

by behn on May 22, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions