Is Akinori Iwamura's Career With the Rays Over?
I've written about this topic a few times already, but after the events of the past couple of days it seems that this topic is more relevant than ever. Who will be the Rays second basemen in 2010 and is Akinori Iwamura's career with the Rays over? When I first visited this topic back in March, the question of Akinori Iwamura's option was a bit simpler. Even if the Rays didn't plan on keeping Iwamura, it seemed smart to pick up the reasonable option at a minimum of $4.25 million dollars.
Up until Sunday's game, you could argue that Iwamura was playing at his highest level in a Rays uniform. He was hitting .310/.377/.406 with 13 doubles and eight steals. He was also playing above average defense at second base according to the latest UZR ratings. The Rays could've used him as a nice bargaining chip during the winter meetings with a number of teams looking for quality play at second base.
However, after Iwamura's torn ACL picking up the option is not a slam dunk anymore. Don't get me wrong $4.25 million is still below market value for a player who has been worth 2.5 wins the past two years, but for the Rays $4.25 million is a lot of money especially when second base is looking like a position of strenghth.
Another factor could be possible compensation. None of us are familiar details with Iwamura's contract, but there could be a chance where the Rays "grant free agency" and still have the option of offering arbitration. Should the Rays choose to do this, and Iwamura decline the arbitration, the Rays might get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. However, Iwamura did not take the path of a regular major league player and this may not apply to him. Without the contract in front of me I can't say if this is the case or not.
Headed into next spring training Iwamura will be 31 and coming off of major knee surgery. Despite the surgery, history says Aki's range was going to take a hit with age. Thanks to fellow Beyond the Boxscore writer Jeff Zimmerman, you can see the trend for decline in second basemen defensively using the UZR metrics.
At this point, you can see Iwamura was trending much like the graph. At age 30 his range was peaking while his double play runs were declining. Here is the year over year numbers for both:
|
Iwamura |
UZR |
DPR |
RngR |
|
2008 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
-1.8 |
|
2009 |
1.3 |
-0.1 |
2.4 |
Note 2009 is a much smaller sample size and UZR is a measurement tool not a predictive one.
While our 2009 data will remain incomplete, Iwamura was still trending much like Jeff's graph. If you put your stock in the graph you will notice that from age 31 to 32, a second basemen's range falls both substantially and rapidly. I would think this decline would be even more rapid and substantial if the second basemen was coming off of reconstructive knee surgery with ligament damage to his ankle. Could Aki buck the trend? Sure, but it's unlikely given his age and the severity and position of his injury.
If I had to guess, I'd say right now, Iwamura has played his last game with the Rays and that's sad. Iwamura was one of the most likable players in the Franchise's brief history as well as one of the most consistent. Aki was the poster boy of "average", but he did average very well.
Most likely the answer to my question of who will be the Rays second basemen in 2010, will answer itself with the 2009 play of Willy Aybar, Reid Brignac and Ben Zobrist. We've gone over all three as likely candidates and it would seem that all three have equal shots at the position for 2010. At some point sooner or later this issue was going to come to the front burner of the Rays hot stove; all the unfortunate injury did was expedite the process.
[Note by Tommy Rancel, 05/27/09 11:00 AM EDT ] No, this is not the news R.J. has promised.
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77 comments
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Comments
I like the caption.
So, TGN1 is a black-Asian Jew?
by Suttree on May 27, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jewblanasian thank you very much
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Before someone asks...
No, this isn’t the fun news.
by R.J. Anderson on May 27, 2009 11:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Damn it
There goes my unfunny question in caps.
by steve-o1285 on May 27, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More fun, less depressing news plz.
by RaysTheRoof on May 27, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can I just go ahead and break it?
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what's taking them so long to post it.
For God’s sake people, this is how you make money. It’s noon. Have this crap up already.
by R.J. Anderson on May 27, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
R.J. Anderson: Business Man
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is why I won't support your brother's political campaign.
by R.J. Anderson on May 27, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't seem like an actual reason..............
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tough to run for office when you're dead.
Unless you’re running against John Ashcroft.
by Suttree on May 27, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You'd have to have a semi-competant wife for that.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope your sister-in-law doesn't read this site.
by Suttree on May 27, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha, you think PLK likes girls
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure how this fist in but there is this clause in his contract:
contract includes clause requiring TB to sign Iwamura to extension by end of the deal or release him (effectively granting him free agency early)
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Seems like that would nix the arb possibility
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
I was told if the wording states “granted him free agency” then they can offer him arbitration unless there is a provision in the contract that states otherwise. If they grant him a release then they would not be eligible.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 27, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure how accurate Cot's is, but that wording says they would be granting him a release.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If that is the case then he would walk free and we wouldn't get anything in return
However, in this case that might not matter. if Aybar/Zobrist/Brignac show the ability to handle the position their combined salaries in 2010 won’t match Aki’s therefore bringing him back wouldnt make much sense for a team stretching payroll.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 27, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Presumably if there are teams that feel like the FA market will exceed his $4.25 million, and they trust his health, we could get something back by picking up his option.
I guess the FO would need to get a pretty accurate measure of the financial climate going forward. Do you know when the deadline for picking up his option is?
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would think it's at the end of the season since we haven't heard anything about it yet.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 27, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a tough question to ask. If we picked up his we'd probably have to wait until after the FA signings to trade him.
Which means he’d probably need to be showcased in spring or throughout the beginning of next year. Seems like a significant risk.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially with Sternberg's comments about payroll not rising.
With raises due to Upton, Garza, Howell, Navarro, and Bartlett amongst possible others via arbitration as well as the raises in contracts to Kazmir, Pena, CC, Burrell + it seems like too big of a risk.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 27, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you think CC is sticking around?
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well his option is already picked up so I'm counting on it.
Of course I’m also counting on contending through the rest of the season.
If we fall too far behind and I’m talking like 10 games out of the wildcard in July then I definitely see CC being a hot name on the market which could free up a lot of cash.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 27, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perez / Upton / Joyce isn't so bad.
Unless you’re into hitting I guess.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope and CC with a year left on his deal
should be a bigger target than Holliday, who is a rental
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 27, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What with the new focus on defense this is definately true.
I can’t wait until some team signs CC to play center, and then has to listen to him bitch about it.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Elaborate
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but...
The only reason to offer him arbitration is if he would be a Class B Free Agent, which seems unlikely considering he will have missed 2/3 of a season.
What does this year’s 2B free agent class look like? In the past few years, there have been a glut of cheaply available 2Bs, and generally teams have been able to get pretty good bang for the buck at the position. If there are lots of vets available and few openings, then it makes it a slam dunk to NOT pick up his option.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on May 27, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not strong
Marlon Anderson NYM
Ron Belliard WAS
Jamey Carroll CLE
Mark DeRosa CHC
David Eckstein SD
Orlando Hudson LAD
Akinori Iwamura * TB
Omar Infante ATL
Felipe Lopez ARZ
Placido Polanco DET
Freddy Sanchez * PIT
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless you're into overpaying for waining talent I guess.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2/3 of all Molina's will be available.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about the Gils?
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on May 27, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most of those guys will probably be available for cheaper than Iwamura though
Which probably drives his price down somewhat. Unless there’s an Orlando Hudson sweepstakes with several entrants, it doesn’t seem like a team would overpay for an injured 2B.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on May 27, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lopez, DeRosa, Hudson, and possibly Polanco will be more expensive than Aki I would bet
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh
And Ray Durham is still available.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on May 27, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Injured
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Deezley too
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And the shitty Giles
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*shittier
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AND CHRIS GOMEZ
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Grudz is no different than Zobrist in my mind
But I have a fanpost up now for this disucssion.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on May 27, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zobrist looks like a cotton tailed rabbit.
Grudz looks gritty. MVP baby.
by R.J. Anderson on May 27, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never mind anyway
Grudz’s defensive stats are a LOT better than I thought they were.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on May 27, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably should have looked it up before writing the fanpost
I had recalled him being a negative UZR guy
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on May 27, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He won a GG two years ago, it was implied.
by R.J. Anderson on May 27, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2006 Royals
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Use this year to see if Brignac's a player
by Raymondo on May 27, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's not a player, he just fucks a lot.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's going to take more than his 23-year-old season to tell you whether he's a "player".
by R.J. Anderson on May 27, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a good post
http://riseoftherays.com/2009/05/trade-talk-begins/
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tommy Got SCOOPED
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lol
jasoncollette Love GM Rizzo’s comment on Cabrera’s release…“I got tired of watching him”. Brutal honesty FTW!
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 11:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Haha, RJ, this is adorable
May’s Questions for Johnny Comeback
Where did the term “grand slam” come from?
Nikki L., Carrollwood
Credit Grandma Comeback for this one. During one of our marathon bridge sessions, I ended up winning all 13 tricks and Grandma Comeback exclaimed “That’s a grand slam!” Now, Johnny Comeback always thought a grand slam was a four-run dinger. It turns out that the phrase originates from the card game of bridge and occurs when a player wins all the tricks. Looks like Grandma Comeback taught me a little something about baseball.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 27, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That age chart
Seeing that chart is going to drive me to pay more attention to flexibility as a supplement to working out as I approach 30. That thing startled me, the way it spikes and then drops, as if 30 is some sort of fitness line of demarcation. I don’t care if it’s UZR or anything else in life, it was startling. I can’t let it happen.
by Bobby Fenton on May 27, 2009 12:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone else think Aki should learn how to put on the catcher's gear again?
Give himself some extra versatility, considering most teams probably won’t be interested in a 32 year old 2B with an average coming off an injury. But, if he could remodel himself as a C/3B/2B/LF utility player without having a black hole for a bat… that has decent value.
by Suttree on May 27, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
IMO, you can't pick up Aki's option now.
Torn ACL injuries do not fully recover in 10 months. That’s around how long it will take for them to heal. He’ll need about another full year for him to get full strength back in his knee. Next year, he likely will be below average defensively after his knee heals up due to reduced range and strength in his plant leg making his throws a hair slower. If the Rays pick up his option, they’ll truely be overpaying for what he brings to the table next year.
Now if the Rays want to make him a long term deal, that’s different, but you can’t seriously consider picking up a one-year option at 4.5M a year for a 2nd baseman with a decent bat and below average range.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
by kericr on May 27, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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