Deconstructing the Beej

by FreeZorilla on May 28, 2009 12:19 AM EDT

More than a quarter into the season, post-season hero BJ Upton is hitting like a fraction of the man he used to be. Upton emerged as an impressive major league hitter in 2007 when he posted a slash line of .300/.386/.508 with a 12.1 BB% and 24 home runs. Despite playing with a torn labrum which required off-season surgery in 2008, Upton still posted a line of .273/.383/.401 with 9 home runs. When combining his on-base skills, ability to see lots of pitches (15.2 BB% in '08) and speed (44 steals in '08), Upton makes an excellent lead off candidate.

The plan has not worked out quite like expected to date. Upton missed most of the Spring after being plunked on the had by a pitch and began the season on the 15 Day Disabled List. Coming off shoulder surgery and having little Spring, the thought was Upton should grow accustomed to his shoulder by the 100 Plate Appearance mark. Now nearing the 200 PA mark, things remain less than rosy. Below are the monthly splits to date for Upton:

Split	PA	AB	BB%	K%	H	XBH	BA	OBP	SLG
April/March	75	62	17.3%	33.9%	11	3	0.177	0.320	0.226
May	119	107	8.4%	30.8%	21	8	0.196	0.263	0.318

Two things jump out, a noticeable uptick in slugging from .226 to .318 and a big drop off in the BJ BB's (17.3% to 8.4%) leading to a pitiful OBP of .263 from .320. BJ has always been fond of the strikeout, but he is not seeing the usual dose of walks. Why is that?

Season	FB%	Mis%	Tk%	TkB%	TkS%	Fstrike %	O-Contact%
2007	57.70%	26.7%	56.6%	70%	30%	63.7%	46.0%
2008	61.50%	18.9%	59.6%	71%	29%	55.2%	65.6%
2009	69.20%	23.2%	61.1%	66%	34%	64.4%	51.7%

BJ is clearly not catching up to fastballs. He is seeing fastballs at such a rate that it is as if he is facing Jeff Niemann each at bat. Is the bat speed still a function of the recovery from the shoulder surgery? He is missing 5% more pitches than he did in 2008, most being generated from an increase in misses outside the zone. While Upton is taking more pitches, it is a combination of 5% fewer balls and 5% more strikes than last year. Lastly his F-Strike% is 9% higher than last year. This is a function of pitchers not being afraid to challenge him and BJ's determination to swing at the first pitch to try and hit his way out of the slump.

In Upton's defense, he is due for a BABIP correction, and I believe we have begun to see that. His Line Drive % should continue to increase and he will begin to move towards more normalized BABIP levels for a speedster.

Year	GB%	FB%	LD%	BABIP
2007	43.7%	29.2%	22.2%	0.392
2008	48.9%	23.6%	21.4%	0.342
2009	43.6%	25.6%	17.9%	0.261

Going back to the characteristics of a good leadoff man: plate discipline to see lots of pitches, high OBP, and speed, it seems it is time to move Upton down in the order. He is sacrificing OBP to try and hit his way out the slump. When he does get deep in counts, it sometimes seems like he is praying for walks as evidenced by increase in strikes taken. Pitchers are not afraid to challenge him leading to fewer walks without reducing the strikeout rate. Taking hacks early in the count may lead to more hits and fewer strikeouts, but until he re-earns pitchers' respect he will be a well below average leadoff hitter. At this point I would label it half-shoulder/half-approach. Drop him down in the order, rebuild some confidence, and put him back up when he is healed and can use the patented BJBB approach.

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Comments

I am all for moving him down in the lineup--but then who leads off now with Aki and Bartlett on the DL?

by walkoffwalk on May 28, 2009 12:26 AM EDT reply actions

just a thought

RF Zobrist
LF CC
3B Longo
1B Pena
CF Upton
DH Gross
2B Aybar
C Navi
SS Brignac

by Dbullsfan on May 28, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions

This is why i wish Nando was healthy

he could allow the rays to sit Beej a couple of days and try and get his mind right

NFL- Vikings,Lions,Texans,Bills Adrian Peterson!
MLB-Rays,Marlins,Reds,Twins Evan Longoria
NBA-T-Wolves,Cavliiers,Warriors,Bobcats Lebron James!
NHL-Wild,Penguins Sidney Crosby!
NCAA-Gophers,Gators,Longh orns,ND Tim Tebow!
all in the order in which i root for 1st

by RaysOfHope on May 28, 2009 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Having Gross DH and Zobrist play the outfield is silly.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on May 28, 2009 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I remember when Beej hit the walkoff HR he mentioned that the trainers told him to "forget the first half of the year".

His BABIP is going to normalize, which will help, needs to get that last bit of batspeed back to catch up to the fastball.

by twenty5psi on May 28, 2009 12:40 AM EDT reply actions

I missed that quote

but if he is essentially rehabbing while holding down our outfield, he should have been moved down long ago until he was ready. Its not fair to him.

by FreeZorilla on May 28, 2009 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions

maddon's stubborn stick-to-it-iveness regarding BJ in the leadoff spot continues to be completely and absolutely inexplicable.

any other manager in the universe would have dropped him in the lineup weeks ago. the experiment is not working. what on earth is joe thinking?

by yeseggs on May 28, 2009 12:54 AM EDT reply actions

Because the two best replacements at leadoff are on some form of DL?

2009 Rays Baseball: God Damn It, Guys

by JMB on May 28, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions

this

by RaysOfHope on May 28, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions

the point is to put somebody else at leadoff. the fact that the best replacements are unavailable is not a good argument for joe.

by yeseggs on May 28, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Okay, who should bat leadoff?

2009 Rays Baseball: God Damn It, Guys

by JMB on May 28, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions

i don't care who. anyone else would probably be better right now. BJ is not getting it done.

by yeseggs on May 28, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions

the only reasonable option is Zobrist and he is pretty good where he is as long as he keeps driving in runs.

It is times like these in which I wish CC was more flexable. Too bad he has to hit 2nd to be happy.

by Dbullsfan on May 28, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions

I would move CC to 1, and Zo to 2.

Zo has a BB% of 15.3%, a Speed Score of 6.3, 21 XBH, and a .405 OBP. He needs all the at-bats he can get right now.

by FreeZorilla on May 28, 2009 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions

JB or Aki..

oh wait they’re both on the DL…stick with Beej there’s no other option on the active roster right now.

by 813Dynasty on May 28, 2009 4:06 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't know if that's exactly fair; he probably should have been moved down a couple weeks ago but kept showing signs of life.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on May 28, 2009 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions

"Experiment"?

by R.J. Anderson on May 28, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions

JOE'S MISSION!

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on May 28, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions

what are you talking about?

by yeseggs on May 28, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Here

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/5/13/874209/joe-madden-mission-hurting-the-rays

2009 Rays Baseball: God Damn It, Guys

by JMB on May 28, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions

"the Rays don't exist to validate your personal missions - "

I AM FORBIDDEN TO SAY LOL. i laughed though.

by yeseggs on May 28, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions

We all did

2009 Rays Baseball: God Damn It, Guys

by JMB on May 28, 2009 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Here's another classic

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/5/5/866011/tampa-bay-rays-attendance

2009 Rays Baseball: God Damn It, Guys

by JMB on May 28, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Gimme a while and it will be in film

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on May 28, 2009 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions

And here we go

http://www.xtranormal.com/watch?e=20090528014837930

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on May 28, 2009 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions

what would you call it?

by yeseggs on May 28, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions

The right move?

Nobody knew Upton’s recovery would take this long. Prior to this year he was the best choice for hitting leadoff. I’m missing how this is an experiment.

by R.J. Anderson on May 28, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions

semantics. my point is that he needs to be moved down in favor of somebody else (who that somebody is goes beyond the scope of my argument) until he starts hitting better.

by yeseggs on May 28, 2009 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Let's give him 6/$60 m, that seems smart

by Raymondo on May 28, 2009 5:23 AM EDT reply actions

Honestly, I've always thought that having Upton and CC back to back actually limits our run attack

rather than help it.

I would be good with (ideally)

CC
Zorilla
Evan
C-PAIN
PTB
MVB
Gabe of the Day
BAWSS
Navi

This way, there are contact, LD/GB hitters after each one of our speedsters (CC, MVB, BAWSS), maximizing their steal value and hit and run potential. Batting the BAWSS down in the order also adds that extra leadoff-man type dimension.

And, yeah, I know CC’s OBP skills aren’t optimal, but right now he’s been one of our most productive hitters. He’s grinding out ABs, getting a bit lucky with poke hits, driving the ball on most contact. That’s what we need at the top of the order.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on May 28, 2009 7:26 AM EDT reply actions

I don't see the logic here

Wouldn’t their stealing potential be hurt by having slower runners in front of them?

When CC and Upton bat back to back they have double steal possibilities and pose the best SB threat in the league. You’re also putting too much emphasis on the LD/GB, contact aspect. Surely we have a better chance of scoring if Longo or Pena are batting behind our speedsters than any other hitters on the team, except mabye Barlett to this point.

by BigBadBossman on May 28, 2009 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions

The double steal is too risky

Why ever make an out at 3rd unless its ABSOLUTELY necessary? (see: Beej v the Elements, World Series 2008) That’s why the Rays don’t do it as often as you’d think. That’s why CC is always wasted by being on 1st with BJ on 2nd. His chances of stealing decrease.

If you bat your speedsters either leadoff, or between a power guy and a contact guy, you’re essentially putting them in the best situation possible. Most of the time, you have your 3TO guys in front, leaving the bases generally open (more often than not – not always) for the speedster to get on, steal, and be moved/knocked in via the hit and run with your contact guy. This doesn’t work to perfection, but its better than, for lack of a better term (time to conjure one) jamming up your speedsters by having them back to back.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on May 28, 2009 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions

I like a healthy BJ and CC back to back.

BJ can steal 2nd and can score on a CC hit or be advanced on a GB to the right side of the field which CC can sometimes beat out. If you end up with runners on the corenr, CC can swipe 2nd and have 2 RISP with no outs for the heart of the order.

by FreeZorilla on May 28, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions

The discrepancy in speed potential is small either way

We know that about optimized lineups. I just like my way, better. :)

For what its worth, Evan has only had 31 PAs with 2 on and no out, and not leading off the inning. Only 8 RBI and 1 double.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on May 28, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Surprising given his RBI total

BJs OBP is a huge reason. I’m curious the # of times one of those two men was BJ.

by FreeZorilla on May 28, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions

All of them (excluding first week of season)

because I excluded times when Evan lead off the inning.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on May 28, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Duh

by FreeZorilla on May 28, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions

You still block up the bases by having somone slower in front of CC

Say there is a runner on first and Carl hits the ball in the gap. On this play Bj has a good chance of scoring from first, allowing Carl to go for a triple. Another player may not have the speed to score, and instead you have 2nd and 3rd. And yes we don’t usually double steal. But if you were going to do it the most likely combination would be BJ and CC (followed by BJ and MVB or MVB and CC). Thus having any runners on in front of Carl are going to slow him down, but BJ will slow him down much less.

by nolesblogger on May 28, 2009 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I think that the effect of a slower runner in front is marginal.

You might see that being a problem only a handful of times a year. I can only recall one time this year, and it was Sonny in front due to a managerial lineup gaffe.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on May 28, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions

How was Sonny in front?

He hit 3rd that game in Longo’s spot.

1. BJ
2. CC
3. Sonny

Even if this doesn’t happen, it would still slow down CC a little bit. BJ is the only player on our team that doesn’t slow down CC (or only in a very small amount). And if the runners are rarely on together than it wouldn’t matter who is in front of who. So you would want to have your best leadoff hitter hitting in the leadoff spot. Clearly (at least in my mind), BJ was the best leadoff candidate at the beginning of the season.

by nolesblogger on May 28, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe it was against the Marlins, then. I know Sonny was in front, though. Either way

it’s a rare situation. I don’t think anyone would slow CC down to the point where he can’t take the extra bag. If it does happen, its not often enough to make a huge diff over 162 games. He’s not Wally West. He is a human man. A very fast one, but its not like he’s out there behind concrete blocks (of cyanide; h/t Jon Gruden) all the time.

And – yeah, I really, really want Beej in the leadoff spot. The lineup I put up there is what we might have to do going forward from now, when BJ has had a really frustrating start.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on May 28, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

I have not idea what to do with the lineup right now.

My only point is that you said separating BJ and CC would help the running game, when I think it would actually hurt it. Yes, having a runner ahead of you slow you down wouldn’t happen very often, but it would happen much less often if that runner is BJ

by nolesblogger on May 28, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't think either way is WRONG (in caps)

I just think isolating your speedsters pushes back their stolen base and speed limits.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on May 28, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions

You don't actually want a big SB guy lead off or #2, true.

Speed is good up top, and any SB guys should be in the 5-7 spots and in front of contact singles hitters.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 28, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Does his low LD% suggest to anyone

his low BABIP is legit?

by Raymondo on May 28, 2009 7:32 AM EDT reply actions

If it's an injury holding him back

I wish he or whoever was aware of it would just sit him down for a few days or however long it takes to heal.

If its finding form, being uncomfortable or not confident, then reps are the only way to get back in the groove.

Its aggravating to watch every pitcher challenge him with heat and Beej not be able to do anything with it.

by Buc Wild on May 28, 2009 8:37 AM EDT reply actions

Someone predicted 200/280 on 6/1

how’s that looking with tfour days left?

by Raymondo on May 28, 2009 9:19 AM EDT reply actions

I think it would be absolutely awesome if BJ went like 4-4 the rest of the week.

by Suttree on May 28, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

me too

but bumping him down in the order is still the right move.

by FreeZorilla on May 28, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Like it or not, and i too am a fan

of his potential, BJ is at the crossroads of his career

Who is BJ Upton???

by Raymondo on May 28, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions

275/380/480 with +5 defense.

by Suttree on May 28, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

267/358/409

and heading south

by Raymondo on May 28, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Ah, yes, because 200 bad at bats outweighs a career of 370+ OBP

Even if he ends the year terribly, he’ll rebound next year.

by Suttree on May 28, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

This

When healthy he is the ideal leadoff man.

by FreeZorilla on May 28, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Also, it's not like he's killing us this year.

Doesn’t excuse his poor performance, but considering we continue to score a 5+ runs a game with his shit vomit batting, he’s the least of our concerns.

by Suttree on May 28, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions

For riz

Top offense in the league. Our issue is not BJ.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on May 28, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

It defintely isn't helping though

I think that the pitching has been the main problem (whether it’s the bullpen one game or the starter the next). But if we are giving up this many runs, we have to score more until the pitchers can at least figure it out. Moving him down does make sense, but Idon’t really kow what to do.

by nolesblogger on May 28, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't disagree.

At the same time… you score 5+ runs a game, you should win. Our pitching has been pretty inexcusable. It’s annoying because some things (Kazmir) are out of our control, and some well-planned moves haven’t worked out (Nelson, though having a guy like him throw higher leverage situations was silly to begin with and I’m not sure whether you put that on Maddon or the FO). Sonnanstine… I don’t get it. Alot of people (these are the same people who were in the Edwin camp) will say it’s the league catching up with Sonny, but it’s really he’s just not pitching well.

Berry berry frustrating, I guess is all I got to say.

by Suttree on May 28, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions

BJ is not the biggest problem

Not the intent of the post. Just analyzing his performance and change in approach. Whereas a lot of the bullpen fail (certain Nelsons excluded) can be attributed to regression and bad luck, BJ seems to be suffering from physical issues and is an easier item to take action on. The offense is ahead of last years pace while the Rays are allowing almost a full run/gm more than last year.

by FreeZorilla on May 28, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

You're right, and i said this last night

when the Joyce call up debate was on

by Raymondo on May 28, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions

just giving you the facts

by Raymondo on May 28, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions

My favorite Ray

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on May 28, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Call me crazy

But why not get your best guys the most at bats right now? Our lineup is a mess for another week or two until Bartlett and Burrell get back, so why not go CC, Longo, Pena, Zob, Aybar? I mean I know that is completely unconventional and maybe it is against what people call our supposed “small ball” approach of running the bases hard, but why not give your best guys the most opportunities right now? Hell, let BJ be the “second” leadoff guy and bat him 9th.

by BJ the Bossman on May 28, 2009 11:19 AM EDT reply actions

Stop ripping off my ideas and making them worse.

Put Longo first.

by Suttree on May 28, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

It seems that his numbers are right in line with past years.

Except his BABIP and his LD%. The only thing that should be troublesome is the drop in LD%. I think that he will regress to the mean and be himself again before too long. Kind of like Adrian Beltre.

by Kirk on May 29, 2009 4:44 AM EDT reply actions