Assessing Matt Joyce

by R.J. Anderson on May 28, 2009 9:43 PM EDT

Matt Joyce is going to be a fantastic hitter one day soon.

Entering yesterday's game, Joyce's time in Triple-A resulted in 392 plate appearances. His line during this time is .292/.375/.539 with 17 homeruns 101 strikeouts and 43 walks. In ratio form, Joyce has a walk rate of ~11% and a strikeout rate of ~29%. The 24-year-old Joyce also has an ISO of .247; of Joyce's 100 Triple-A hits, 48 have been for extra bases (28 doubles, 3 triples, 17 homeruns). Joyce has also been successful on 7 of 11 steal attempts. Carl Crawford he's not, but Joyce seems to have a decent set of wheels underneath him.

A lot has been made of Joyce's platoon split, and his increase in hitting lefties this season. Frankly, that concern seems a bit silly. While ideally you would want a hitter with equal (and good) hitting abilities against both dexterities, if you are going to feature a player with tilted numbers, make it a lefty. Most of the league's starting pitchers are righties. Joyce is decently against southpaws throughout his career anyways. Plus, people don't call for pinch hitters when lefties enter against Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena.

How do Joyce's Triple-A numbers stack up against the younger Rays' numbers as well as comparison toy Jayson Werth? Behold:

Player	Age	PA	K%	BB%	ISO
Longoria	21, 22	158	26	16	0.178
Upton	19, 20, 21	1414	24	13	0.173
Dukes	22, 23, 24	391	19	13	0.191
Young	19, 20	604	17	3	0.159
Joyce	23, 24	392	29	11	0.247
Werth	23, 24	902	28	11	0.204

These numbers are raw (a la no park adjustments) so take that into account and also look at the ages. A .150 ISO as a 20-year-old is more impressive than a .150 ISO as a 24-year-old at the same level, park, etc. of course that makes the Werth comparison all the more apt. If Joyce turns out to be a lefty Werth, consider his career a success. Over the last three seasons, Werth has posted WARs of 5.3, 3.4, and 1.5.

Joyce is going to walk some, he's going to strike out a bit, and he's going to hit a boat load of doubles while playing above average corner outfield defense. Be excited.

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Comments

Time to bring up Wade Davis and Matt Joyce NOW!

What better time to bring up our top prospects from the minors than during a 5 game losing streak?

by minmex on May 28, 2009 10:03 PM EDT reply actions

Wade Davis isn't ready.

by R.J. Anderson on May 28, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Not as a starter, but another arm in the bullpen.

by minmex on May 28, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Why should we retard his development as a starter for a short term fix in the pen?

Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.

by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 28, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Retard means to sit and let rise.

Learn to use the word.

by Sylar on May 28, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Uh.

Merriam-Webster’s College Dictionary, 11th edition

retard
transitive verb
1. to slow up especially by preventing or hindering advancement

by Suttree on May 28, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

No shit you retard

“Sit and let rise”

by Sylar on May 29, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Davis' promotion shouldn't be a decision made for the short-term over the long-term.

by R.J. Anderson on May 28, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions

But is it really at the hindrance of his LT development?

Pitching out of the BP this year will help the club. It will also give him a taste of getting big leaguers out w/o having to face them 3-4 times. This practice has been done for years, and I don’t really see a downside. The one issue is if he isn’t ready at all, but I think he’s pretty close at this point.

by rglass44 on May 29, 2009 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions

ugh

Just looked at his K/BB. Maybe wait a little bit more.

by rglass44 on May 29, 2009 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Meh, unless they want him to learn an effective third pitch, which is going to happen in the pen.

I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure he’s only a two pitch guy right now (fastball, curve). Frankly, he strikes me as a bull pen guy, but if the Rays think he’ll stay healthy long enough to be a starter, then bringing him up now would be a waste.

by Suttree on May 29, 2009 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm a big fan of letting young pitchers aclimate to the majors as long relievers out of the pen. (As was Earl Weaver)

It let’s them stretch out, work on all their pitches, attack major league hitters, and pitching in lower leverage situations so the pressure isn’t quite as high. Unfortunately, that last point doesn’t exactly mean this plan helps the team win immediately.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 29, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Burning this much service time for some relief work on a guy who needs more Triple-A time isn't smart.

by R.J. Anderson on May 29, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions

True, if Davis isn't ready, even for the pen, don't call him up.

And if 2-3 months of service time matters, then don’t call him up. I wonder about that one, though. What are some potential plans for Davis as a starter?

In rotation starting day one of 2010
Called up ~1.5 months in like DPrice 2009
Mid to late season callup 2010
Repeat this question for 2011

Assuming Davis is up for good whenever he’s called up, the Rays should look to eek a 7th year of team control out of him. If they go with option one above, calling him up now won’t make a difference. If they go with option two, they should wait a couple months. If they go with option three, well, not sure why they’d call him up now to relieve, same with option four. My guess, and you can back this up, is that we’re looking at option two, which means Davis to long relief/bullpen in early August is a viable strategy, and he’s available to be an important guy out of the pen in the playoffs, god willing.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 29, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd say 2.

by R.J. Anderson on May 29, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm less concerned with service time on a pitcher.

by rglass44 on May 29, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Half this post makes sense.

Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.

by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 28, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Matt Joyce is going to be a fantastic hitter one day soon.

I disagree.

by Sylar on May 28, 2009 10:14 PM EDT reply actions

I agree with your disagreement.

by minmex on May 28, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I disagree with your agreement.

Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.

by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 28, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't agree that Joyce has hit lefties decently on his career

Unless either you have a very low standard for ‘decent’, or you’re looking only at the average instead of pulling out the outlier. In 2007, he somehow had no L/R split. In every other year, his OPS against lefties has been sub-.700. This year, it’s at around .750 so far, but he’s struck out in over 1/3 of his at-bats against lefties, and he has an unsustainably high 32% LD rate against them.

Then again, if he’s a good defender, I say let him sink or swim. Right-handed bats that can only hit lefties are a dime a dozen if it turns out that Joyce really flounders as a full timer.

Sorry to just pick out the one point I disagree with.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on May 28, 2009 11:33 PM EDT reply actions

Carl has a career 659 OPS vs left handed batters.

If Joyce plays +5 defense with an 900 OPS versus righties, I think we’re fine.

by Suttree on May 29, 2009 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions

what does +5 defense mean? sorry.

by walkoffwalk on May 29, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions

It's just a way of saying he'll be a good corner defender.

Based off UZR ratings. 0 is average on the UZR scale, so if someone is +5, they’re well above average… +15 is getting into Carlos Beltran category.

by Suttree on May 29, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

+1 = 1 run saved versus what the average defender at that position would do

+10 = 10 runs saved = 1 win
Suttree is saying that he’d be happy if Joyce was worth half a win more, defensively, than the average corner outfielder

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on May 29, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Word.

Which probably isn’t that high of an expectation. He looked kind of lost in center field, but he graded out well last year for Detroit and he obviously has the physical tools to do it.

by Suttree on May 29, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Is Kapler still better than Joyce at the major league level right now?

by walkoffwalk on May 28, 2009 11:34 PM EDT reply actions

Not a chance

Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.

by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 28, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions

unfortunately, that's not really relevant

because even if Joyce is better than kapler (i think he is) Joyce may end up reaching less of a potential over his career by coming up too soon. I think Joyce is very close to being ready. I’m not a scout and I don’t have the data to know when it is best in a players time to move from one level to the next. I know that when you advance a player based on organizational need rather than actual personal achievement you can slow a players growth. The question is really what is the benchmark that Joyce needs to reach in order to be a good player, and has he reached those levels yet. If he hasn’t, I think he’s real close.

by behn on May 28, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Gross and Joyce are too similar to have on the team at the same time. Getting rid of Kapler does not alleviate this.

Joyce with some Zobie mixed in on the other hand…

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 29, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions