Is Wade Davis ready?

by raysfaninminnesota on May 29, 2009 12:55 AM EDT Comment 24 comments

when taking a look at Davis' recent starts, I'm sure some will try to make the case that he's turned the corner. Last two starts, over 13 IP, no ER. He's even cut down on his walks. So many are asking the question: Is he ready for the Show?

The more important question is, are we asking for the right reasons? Are we asking because, developmentally he has nothing left to prove in AAA? Are we asking because he has refined his pitches and strike zone to the point that no more seasoning is required? Or are we asking because the Rays rotation is in shambles? Are we asking because we can't get through one turn of the rotation where all 5 starters at least last 5 IP, the minimum required to be eligible to be the winning pitcher on record? Are we asking because we never thought we'd miss Edwin Jackson so much, the same pitcher columnists would strip the "win" from his name until he actually won a few games?

When taking a look at Davis' AAA numbers, nothing sticks out. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. For a guy who just surpassed 100 IP in AAA for his career, sporting an ERA of well under 3 and has not yet reached the age of 24? There's a lot to like. There's good reason to daydream with him and Price as part of the next tier of pitchers to go alongside Shields and Garza (and since we're wishful thinking, Kazmir).

But on the other side, his strikeouts are down. He averaged slightly over 1k/inning in last year's stint in AAA. This year those strikeouts are down by nearly 50% and he's walked 2 or more batters in every start but one. Even though he hasn't dominated, no one has dominated him. He has not been shelled in any of his starts, giving up no more than 3 runs in a single outing. All of this shows that he is holding his own in AAA but not confidently or completely showing his development is ready for the next step, unless you think this is his peak (which I don't think many do at all).

overall, Davis could use a little more seasoning, but if he continues to perform the way he has in his last two starts, it is only a matter of weeks before he ends up in the Rays rotation. Hopefully it just isn't done out of necessity.

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Judging by his horrid K:BB ratios in the minors this year, I would say no

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 29, 2009 1:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This

by Taylor H on May 29, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His K rate dropping isn't necissarily a bad thing

so long as it is correlated with a drop in bb%. Alot of times, especially in the minor leagues, a pitcher can get young, unseasoned hitters to swing at pitches outside of the zone. When a pitcher begins to rely on the hitter to chase, he can end up throwing too many balls and never learn how to control his pitches inside the zone. A pitcher who never/rarely walks a batter with a k rate of 6/9 is more valuable than someone with a bb rate of 5/9 with a k rate of 12/9 at the big league level. Hitters are too good in the show, and they won’t always chase.

by behn on May 29, 2009 9:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm starting to wonder if he wouldn't be fine coming up to pitch out of the BP for the remainder of the year.

If they feel he has mastered his pitches, and his main developmental issue is throwing strikes, then it might behoove the org to let him come up and face big leaguers out of the BP. It’s a practice that has been done for years and would help the big team. Maybe not just yet, but come July he could be a big shot in the arm to the club.

by rglass44 on May 29, 2009 9:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

what's wrong with making moves out of necessity?

in what fantasy world are all moves made out of luxury? i’d love to live in this alternate dimension where every player that comes up is 100% ready, and he replaces a player that is already playing well, and we just trade that already performing player for more great prospects, and we continue this cycle on into eternity… but it doesn’t work like that.

by davidsmarch on May 29, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's not necessity.

We can find middle relievers a dime a dozen. Call up Bateman, call up Abreu, trade for guys being undervalued by their teams.

Davis isn’t ready, and burning service time to do relief work is silly.

by R.J. Anderson on May 29, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i wouldn't advocate calling him up as a middle reliever,

i don’t see the author mention that either.

by davidsmarch on May 29, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I misread your intent then.

Ignore my response.

by R.J. Anderson on May 29, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's all about what-ifs

What if bringing him up before he was ready snowballs on him? Many a pitcher have been burned out by being brought to the show too early and overwhelmed. Sometimes you do have to do things out of necessity, but that’s not how player development is run. And having an organization that depends on that for its long term success, you want to make sure he’s ready to handle it. However, I believe it’s getting to the point where you can call him up and see if he sinks or swims. Especially when there’s really no one else outside of Talbot, and Davis is probably more ready for immediate success and has better stuff.

by raysfaninminnesota on May 29, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see improvement

And I don’t know of anything he’s working on. If he’s plateaued, then keeping him in the minors isn’t going to help much of anything.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on May 29, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Meh. It's early in the year.

It’s not bizarre for a prospect to have a rough first half.

by Suttree on May 29, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Might be working on other pitches.

by R.J. Anderson on May 29, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which would be nice if they want him to be a starter.

The number of two-pitch starters is limited to Ervin Santana, Johan Santana (sort of), AND EDWIN JACKSON.

by Suttree on May 29, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wade has 5 pitches

4-seamer, 2-seamer, curve, change and cutter. The reason his K rates have dropped so much over the past year or so is because he’s been working in the 2-seamer and cutter a lot more, both of which he pitches for contact.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on May 29, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unless I'm getting him confused with someone else

Frankly, I just don’t follow the minors as closely as I used to. Winning at the major league level helps that.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on May 29, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're right.

The fastball and curve are his go-to pitches.

by Suttree on May 29, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His strikeouts were down in Montgomery the first half of last year

Then he got promoted to Durham and struck out 55 in 53 innings. So who knows?

www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on May 30, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Might be

But usually you hear about that kind of stuff. And if we want to call up a starter, he’s still a better option than Talbot.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on May 29, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Davis up as a starter likely helps the bullpen too

Unless he gets shelled, he’s got the stamina to go long in games, and it would free up an arm to move to the bullpen. My personal choice would be Niemann, who has been one of the more consistent starters, but by no means dominant, and whose stuff likely plays better out of the pen anyways.

by AFBlue82 on May 29, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If we do give him a chance

if he can prove hes ready, this can be a nasty rotation

Shields
Garza
Price
Davis
Niemann

and Sonny to the pen with Wheeler/Nelson getting a fake injury.

It’s nothing more than a dream right now but after watching that abortion of a series, I can dream

Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Andy Sonnanstine 5. Jeff Niemann...... Coming Soon: Wade Davis

by joeybw on May 29, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

why would you assume sonny to the pen

haven’t you heard? he’s been better then Niemann…

by davidsmarch on May 29, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

When he can roll off consectuive outings, I will like him

Niemann has been almost 1st round like lately

Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Andy Sonnanstine 5. Jeff Niemann...... Coming Soon: Wade Davis

by joeybw on May 29, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

When he comes up, what do we do?

I like Sonny and Kaz in the bullpen and cut or trade Nelson and Wheeler. Kaz would maybe work as our closer. We wouldn’t have to worry about his pitch count and he could throw as hard as he wants. I think he’s got too much on his mind as a starter and has the stuff to be a closer.

Been on the bandwagon since '98

by dray on May 30, 2009 10:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs