Off Season Front Office Mistakes
by pontormo on May 30, 2009 2:24 PM EDT
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PrintFor what it's worth, here are my five off season mistakes made by the Rays' front office.
1. Percival should have never showed up for spring training. They should have bought out his contract and told him to stay home.
2. They should have passed on Burrell and spent the money on a closer. Willile Aybar is a fine DH. That said, I think Burrell will be OK eventually. But closers are harder to come by than hitters.
3. They should have kept Edwin Jackson and put him in as the number 4 starter. Unless you are Greg Maddux or Jamie Moyer, you can't be expected to succeed with an 85 mph fast ball. They should either have traded Sonnenstein or put him in the bullpen. I say this even though I like Matt Joyce and he could prove to be a good player in the long term.
4. Never in a million years should they have signed Gabe Kapler. They should have kept Adam Kennedy instead.
5. Price should have started the season as #5. We could have brought Neiman up when Kazmir went down.
I believe that most of the people on this site would agree with all of these points. Don't tell me Andrew Friedman is a genius.
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
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Let me rephrase
no justification for your points, no respect.
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on May 30, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Results baed analysis! Woo!
If Burrell weren’t injured and raking the ball, Edwin were pitching like Edwin, Kapler were hitting like his career norms, this list would not exist.
Some good thoughts, some not as good
1) Agreed. I think most of us agree.
2) The most efficient use of money was to sign a big bat to play DH. The market was saturated with these guys this offseason, and we were able to pay well below what the market value would have been in a normal season for Burrell. It’s unfortunate that he hasn’t worked out so far, but he’ll pick it back up. Closers were extremely expensive in this market, and considering how few of innings they pitch, are almost never going to be the most efficient use of limited resources.
3) This has been beaten to death already. It sucks that Sonnanstine has regressed this year, but we got a good haul in return for Jackson, someone whose component stats scream that he will eventually negatively regress.
4) The Kapler signing is a bit confusing, but nobody could have anticipated that his bat would completely disappear this year. Also, nobody could have anticipated that Bartlett AND Iwamura would go down. Once Bartlett is back, I honestly don’t think Brignac is much of a downgrade from Kennedy, though I’d still like to see the team sign Durham or Grudzielanek.
5) Actually, Niemann is out of options, so he had to start the year with the team. I can see merit to the point if we sign fewer relievers in the offseason and move Sonny/Jackson to the pen.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Oh my goodness
I’m glad the classification of a “mistake” is based on hindsight rather than all available knowledge at the time.
Players are human, sometimes they underperform and overperform. Often times its just luck. Nothing indicated Burrell would have such struggles with his health and his hitting (which I’m going to go out on a limb and say are connected). Nor could anyone have expected Edwin to have more success in Detroit than he did here. But….for the 1 millionth time, Edwin was traded as much for a good OF prospect (in a system that really only had 1 in DJ) as he was to move present and future salary. He’s entered the arbitration period of his career and the Rays do not have the resources to spend excess salary on players who underperformed for their entire tenure with this team.
Your post is mostly stupid.
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 30, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions
Ugh!
Neimann was out of options.
Percival? No brainer there, they gave him a shot rather than just pissing away $4M.
EJax? He’s due for his Mike Matasow blow up.
Kapler sux, Burrell’s been a bust but for a guy that’s been averaging 30+ HR’s and 100 RBI over the past 4 seasons it was a good signing at the time.
The point is as horrible and unenthusiastic as many feel the Rays have played they’re only 5.5 back.
I agree with the others that this is a stupid post. I would have signed Pudge and deep 6’d the worst player in all of baseball A.K.A. the round man.
You know it's a horrible post when the retarded Manning brother roundly criticizes it
Just kidding Connor
Vogt early, Vogt often.
No problem
Just do what RJ did when he cut me off here.
To apologize he sent me front row tix for the Indians series, threw in a few authentic Rays jersey’s, Rays hats, and complimentary cigars at the Cuesta Rey Cigar bar…
RJ’s cool….
by ConnorManning on May 30, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
you lie
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 30, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I still don't understand what makes you think Navi is such a horrible player coming off an all-star year
I’m beginning to waver on Jackson though. I don’t think he’s going to blow up. At least not this year.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
There's been a lot of hypothetical dismemberment from you recently
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 30, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, it woulda sucked having Fuentes rather than Burrell.
by ConnorManning on May 30, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Fuentes hasn't been good either
And he’s more expensive than Burrell.
The Angels are just good at setting up easy save situations. Fuentes hasn’t been much better than Dan Wheeler.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Then again..
Who would you rather have closing games for TB right now?
I’d takes Fuentes too.
by ConnorManning on May 30, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
You realize that this team doesn't have the money to spend $17.5 million for 2 years of relief pitching?
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 30, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
That's simply untrue.
Player…..FIP……….tRA
Fuentes…3.09…….3.47
Wheeler …5.57……5.7
by R.J. Anderson on May 30, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm surprised Fuentes' FIP is that low
Righties are hitting extraordinarily well off of him. People have been hitting rockets for doubles off of him left and right.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Having an awful defense behind him isn't helping matters either.
by R.J. Anderson on May 30, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll amend then
Which is the better free agent signing:
Player A: 3.39 FIP, .5 WAR, 37 IP, $675,000
Player B: 3.09 FIP, .5 WAR, 19 IP, $8.5 million
We can’t really sign both Cormier and Fuentes, and Cormier has been just as good for about 1/15th of the cost.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
If
PtB wasn’t signed for his $8M per year and his .250 avg. and 1 HR I certainly would have loved to seen Fuentes donning a TB derby. The money offsets itelf if Burrell wasn’t signed and Fuentes was.
The problem isn’t offense, it’s a shitty BP.
by ConnorManning on May 30, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
But
Even with the extra cash freed up, there still wasn’t a ROSTER SPOT for Fuentes. If we signed Fuentes, we wouldn’t have been able to sign Cormier, who’s been just as good but much cheaper.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
For me the point is
there was a hope that Percival would at least be serviceable, or Balfour would take the role, or Wheeler would provide a 3rd option. Strike 3.
Balfour looked like a closer candidate, and could reemerge to fill that role. Or not. Wheeler could serve as an adequate middle guy (or not), and the return of Bradford could help fill a set up role, allowing Howell to close. Cormier was signed to fill Bradford’s GB getter slot. He’s done fine so far, and was decent last year, but he screams fungible RP to me. No evidence, just a feeling. But he’s another option. Things could look much different in a month or 2. Fuentes just didn’t fit given the cost and list of potential options, which haven’t to date played out.
by nyyfaninlaaland on May 30, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
What, exactly, is wrong with fungible relief pitcher?
fun·gi·ble (fŭn’jə-bəl)
adj.
1. Law Returnable or negotiable in kind or by substitution, as a quantity of grain for an equal amount of the same kind of grain.
2. Interchangeable.
n. Something that is exchangeable or substitutable. Often used in the plural.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 31, 2009 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh wow.
The Angels are barely pitching Fuentes.
Only 19 IP?
Holy preservation.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
No save opps, no action.
K-Rod had a massive # of opps last year.
Hence LAA way outperformed their Pythag.
by nyyfaninlaaland on May 30, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Since rocket doubles aren't factored into FIP
this shouldn’t surprise you so.
Personally, I only like FIP as a predictor of future performance, not as a current performance measure.
by nyyfaninlaaland on May 30, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm with you on that with FIP
Which is why I was getting on RJ’s case about it.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Established, consistent closers ARE harder to come by than hitters
Why do you think they cost so much relative to their actual value? Market scarcity. There are very few consistently good closers. That said, a lot of pitchers that people pay like good closers aren’t really as consistent as a good closer, and teams pay way too much for saves.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Unless it's Rivera/Papelbon, there is no reason to pay for a closer.
by R.J. Anderson on May 30, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Joe Nathan would like to talk to you
I think the role is overblown and overpaid, but it’s not an easy one nonetheless.
It’s more difficult to maintain good performance in the set up role, so I think those that do should be better paid – but that’s evolving. And it’s more rare to see consistent year to year to success there. Thus the reticence to pay big bucks when there’s more variance. Maybe why I’d try to keep Howell in the set up role, and hope someone emerges to close. Seems more games are won or lost in the 7th or 8th than the 9th. But the 9th ones really hurt.
by nyyfaninlaaland on May 30, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Not that I disagree with you
But the reason why more games could be lost in the 7th or 8th than the 9th is cause the better pitchers are usually pitching in the 9th.
by nolesblogger on May 31, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
There are many consistent late-inning pitchers though...
Closer is a fancy title. The Red Sox bullpen is so worthy of envy because its stocked with 3 or 4 relievers who could “close”.
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 30, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Really, not that many
Fewer consistently good relievers out there than consistently good bats, even of the no-field variety. And even out of those 3 or 4, they COULD close, but you probably wouldn’t want to pay them closer money. They’re just not worth that much.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
No but my point was there are effective options that don't require closer $$$
Ramon Ramirez, Manny Delcarmen, and the Kyoto Protocol (my nickname for Okajima, please spread it) are nearly as good as JP Howell and work for peanuts.
My problem with “closer” concept is that it over-pays for and over-emphasizes the importance of a single dominant reliever to be used in an end-game scenario over the benefits having a versatile and consistent array of late-inning relievers. I’m sure Friedman and Maddon appreciate this sentiment because the team definitely constructed that last year.
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 30, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
They work for peanuts because of baseball's salary structure
I think to some extent the Rays got lucky here last year. Their strategy was similar to ’07’s originally, bringing in a bunch of lower cost options – with the exception of Percival and the Wheeler extension after his ’07 acquisition. They hit on Balfour (another cheap ’07 pickup) and Howell came out of the blue, and the others (Miller & managed to not completely suck,Hammel) while the last of the earlier gets where shipped out (Dohmann, Reyes, Glover) early, then the pricier Bradford was picked up late.
And they’ve kind of done it again this year, with Nelson, Cormier, Izzy, and Shouse, just at a somewhat higher price point. Thayer and Choate fit the cheap model.
The problem is – and you can’t blame this regime for this – they don’t have in-house prospects for the pen. Only Morlan – and he too is an acquisition – looks like he could contribute from the upper minors. Surplus starters could get a shot – many thought Niemann would eventually assume such a role – and some lower level RP’s from more recent drafts are performing, but I see these low priced RP’s as the definition of fungible. Thus inconsistent performance that you’re seeing.
by nyyfaninlaaland on May 30, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
BTW
Have you taken economics? If you haven’t, I think it might give you a more well-rounded perspective on some of this.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
I've taken many economics classes.
I know why they’re overpriced, that doesn’t mean it’s smart or efficient.
by R.J. Anderson on May 30, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course not
But reality is reality, and I feel like you get away from that sometimes. Hypotheticals are all good until they don’t actually work in real life.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
This reads as "Innovation is bad and something we should never approach or push for."
Not everything works, but not everything in “reality” works either.
by R.J. Anderson on May 30, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
That wasn't my intent at all
This is just my personal opinion, but I think sometimes you veer too far into hypo-land and miss important factors in your analysis because of it. Not always or even most of the time, but I think the fact that you don’t see the alternative angles sometimes makes you too dismissive of mainstream thinking, which in some cases has some merit.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
I think our problem is filtering out the legitimate mainstream thinking from the garbage stuff.
A good majority of people who do mainstream analysis just ape what they see on ESPN, which is usually downright shitty analysis. Occasionally someone comes along and brings something intelligent to the table without the use of sabermetrics, but the signal-to-noise ratio is extremely low.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
You're better when there's less of you
I mean that as a sincere form of flattery
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 31, 2009 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions
It isn't paying for closers, it is paying for saves
The reason why “closers” are highly priced are due to saves and not actual performance. So the demand is set by a metric that has little predictable value. Sure some closers have solid predictable metrics which make them much more worth the cost.
Or as Mao Tse-tung said
The need to shit after eating does not mean that eating is a waste of time.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 30, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Can we speculate on what happens when Bradford and Kazmir are ready to come off the DL?
They’ll be ready to pitch again in the majors…by the ASB?
Is someone dumb enough to take Wheeler’s contract? Will they DFA Nelson by then? Will Cormier’s arm be in shreads? Andy/Jeff → Pen? or a trade? It seems like the team is poised for a couple big roster moves.
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 30, 2009 2:55 PM EDT reply actions
When Bradford comes back, Nelson will probably be the first reliever to go.
Sonny’s been horrible all year and unless he turns it around, Niemann should stay in the rotation over him when Kaz is back.
Yeah, the Nelson pitch speed decrease over time does not bode well
Hopefully Niemann’s improvement continues. I still hope he can be a reliable #3/4.
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 30, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
No: the real crime was not resigning Miller
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 30, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
He is striking out a ridiculous amount of batters this year.
by R.J. Anderson on May 30, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually it's about the same rate, but he's throwing a lot more bendy things
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 30, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Hm, you're right.
For some reason I had the number 10 in my head with him.
by R.J. Anderson on May 30, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if the team's emphasis on throwing strikes is somehow translating to the pitchers as an emphasis on throwing the fastball.
After all, the fastball should be the easiest pitch to throw for a strike?
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
Half right
It does less damage to an arm compared to CB/SL/?
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 31, 2009 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions
This is a prime example of "20/20 hindsight"
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
Well,
it appears that most of the people on this site do not agree with all your points, pontormo, at least the ones who have responded so far. In fact, many people don’t agree with any of them. Count me among that latter group for the reasons already given.
As for Friedman being a genius, I don’t like to toss that description around easily. I think he has demonstrated an excellent grasp of how to build a contender and how to acquire talent and add depth to an organization. Many moves do not work out, and before he is done as GM many others will also fail. But the reasoning behind the moves is sound, and as is usually the case require choices among various defensible options, not simply doing the right or wrong thing.
For example, many people on this site wanted the Rays to sign Milton Bradley or Giambi rather than Burrell. Or thought the Rays should deal Niemann rather than Hammel. There were legitimate arguments for any of those moves, but in hindsight none now seem to be right.
For the 1,000th time
I agree with Bob
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 31, 2009 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Good luck having anyone here saying the Ejax trade was a dud.
Matt Joyce for MVP and CY Young Winner
It's WAY too early to call it a bad deal
We get Joyce for 6 years, and Edwin was starting to get expensive (so it cleared salary space for offseason signings), and Edwin appears to be getting better results than he should be getting, which may not last. Then again, if Edwin wins the Cy Young this year and is dominant the next two and Joyce only becomes a platoon player, then it’s certainly a losing trade, even if the process was good.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Is Edwin really so different this year?
He’s certainly better than how he finished 2008, however…
First 10 starts 2008:
59 2/3rds IP: 53 H, 23 ER, 4 HR, 30 BB, 43 K, 1030 pitches
First 10 starts 2009:
66 1/3rds IP: 57 H, 19 ER, 5 HR, 17 BB, 50 K, 1100 pitches
So, more pitches = more innings, close in everything except the sharp downtick in walks. Edwin had a rough June 2008, let’s see how he handles this year. We’re really at the branching point.
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on May 31, 2009 4:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Cutting your walks in half is usually a good way to improve.
Especially when that is the biggest knock against you.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 31, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
In June, 1964
the Cubs traded 25 year old Lou Brock and two other players to the Cardinals for 28 year old Ernie Broglio and 2 others, one of whom was 38 year old Bobby Shantz. Ever since, the Cubs have been pilloried for making such a one-sided deal, giving up a future HOFer for a pitcher who managed two more partial seasons in baseball and was awful.
Leaving aside the debate over whether Brock really was that great a player, the criticism is still unfair. Given what was known at the time and how players were evaluated then, the deal made sense for Chicago. Brock had disappointed for 3 years. An indifferent fielder at best, he had not hit for average or power. His only asset seemed to be his speed. And their incumbent left fielder was 26 year old BIlly Williams, already established as an excellent player.
In addition, 3 of the Cubs starting pitchers in 1964 were respectively 33, 35 and 37 years old. Broglio was not only a former 21 game winner but had gone 18-8 the previous year with a 2.99 ERA. Although he was just 3-5 at the time of the trade, his ERA was solid. Even Shantz could be seen as a plus for the Cubs as he also pitched very well in relief in 1963 and started 1964 well also. It must have seemed enticing to add Broglio to a staff with 2 other recent 20 game winners, a still effective Larry Jackson and a very young Dick Ellsworth, while just giving up a failed prospect. An established front line pitcher, still in his prime, for a very limited left fielder! The Cubs made a legitimate decision and got screwed.
Although I did not think he was a very good pitcher, I liked Edwin Jackson and thought he showed some progress last year even if the numbers did not reflect it. Should he emerge as a star pitcher, a development I still think unlikely but possible, while Joyce becomes a 4th outfielder at best, the trade will have been a bad one for TB. But given the circumstances at the end of 2008 it was exactly the right thing for the Rays to do. Results are important is assessing trades, but analyzing the legitimacy of options is crucial for assessing the judgments of the people making the trades.
by bobr on May 31, 2009 7:31 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs
Very good post...
The one discussion you eluded to regarding the trade od Jackson was the logjam of arms in the Minors that were out of options and the PTP’er who will be the best.
Between Jackson and Sonnastine I would have taken Jackson any day of the week. Why? Simply when you’re not on as a power pitcher you can get away with bad pitches. When you rely on control solely as Andy does, when you throw that meaty hanging curveball or cutter that doesn’t cut over the middle of the plate it’s hit over the fence. Just ask Ben Fransisco. Samething goes for the BP. Howell as closer? When he throws the ball over the middle of the plate it goes a looooong way. Fuentes has some nasty shit. He should have been signed rather than Burrell.
A few considerations went into the Jackson trade. His K’s per 9 IP fell by 2 per game in 2008. His BB/K ratio was lousy. He did have a career best 1.51 WHIP which is far from stellar. The 14-10 record didn’t fool anyone considering the Rays played the 2nd best defense in the league to go along with speed that got to balls that no other team can get to. Then there’s the Crawford aspect of it all. My question is “HOW” can’t you pick up this guys option and re-sign him to another deal. We all can tell there is no better defensive OF’er in the game combined with him peaking at the plate and stealing bases. Some thought went into this one for friedman I do believe in attaining Joyce. I believe he’s here to eventually replace C.C. which is a tragic move in my viewpoint.
Then there was Price, Neimann, and Davis. Someone had to be tradeded or moved to the BP. BTW, Joyce is going to be great. He stays back on the ball well, his hands are back, his head is as still as they come, he turns(opens hips) ultra quick, and has a swing so sweat it’ll give you a toothache. I would say that DET has gotten the best end of this deal thus far, not in the long run. I believe Joyce may be a hitting machine when given the chance to play every day.
by ConnorManning on Jun 2, 2009 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Howell as Closer
JP has not given up a high leverage home run the past two seasons with the Rays. Ball can’t be going too far.
Biggest Off Season Mistake: Not signing Trick Daddy for the summer concert series.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 2, 2009 10:29 AM EDT reply actions
I don't know what this world's gonna bring
But I know one thing, that this is the life for me.
Baby cause I’m a ………….
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 2, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
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