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Around SBN: Bracketology 2012: Duke Finally Steps Up To The No. 1 Line

I know this is really old hat and Matt Joyce hitting a homer in his first game since being called back up helps, but damn. Andrew Friedman is officially 99-1 in trades that have benefited the team IMO. Unless Edwin Jackson has a monumental collapse (which is SO possible), then Detroit so far has beaten us in this trade. Granted, we may win in the long haul, but that does nothing for me now with Sonny sucking and Kaz crapping up the joint.

over 2 years ago Rayscelebrateanimated2xb9_tiny Longorious 69 comments 1 recs  | 

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Granted, Jax may have benefitted from the new park,

but other than that fact, almost everything else is in his favor. Sustainable luck (cept for the HR/FB), better K/BB.

Maybe Edwin is like that Pokemon that evolves after you trade it.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Jun 1, 2009 12:39 AM EDT reply actions  

Is he throwing more sliders this year?

The Rays preach the fastball a bit too much IMO

by matthan on Jun 1, 2009 10:38 AM EDT reply actions  

JACKSON HAD ENTERED ARBITRATION. WE NEEDED TO CLEAR SALARY

jesus.

Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 1, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Thats why we signed an 8 million dollar dh?

I’d rather spenstarting pitcher (even one with questionable peripherals) than 8 mil on a dh . The money argument holdd 2.5 million on a s little water. Joyce will probably turn out decent, but if Jackson keeps this up then it was a bad trade. Others have and will argue that the process was good, but I disagree as I have explained why many times before.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

PtB made double that the prior year

You may want to factor that into your equation.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 1, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

We signed an 8 million $ DH because that position was the team's greatest need.

It’s fact that the front office needed to free up payroll in order to acquire a real DH. While it’s unfortunate that Burrell has underperformed and been hurt, based on Edwin’s prior performances it was a logical decision to get a return on him.

You can’t use hindsight to evaluate decisions because it’s a cheat. Think about what the organization knew at the time. Besides, it’s not like we cut bait on Jackson like we did with a certain Rule 5 pick in 2007. We got a good player back, for cheap. This is how the organization operates. If you don’t like it, go root for the Yankees.

Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 1, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, you're right.

Not protecting a guy worth 7.5 wins in 2 seasons was a great move considering all the “stars” we had on the 40 man at the time.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not getting into this again

I’ve laid out the evidence too many times. Continue to believe what you want because I’m not here to change opinions.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 1, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh my God! I criticized the great Andrew Friedman!

I disagreed with a move that the team made and now I should go root for the Yankees? You are retarded. I’ve been a fan of this organization since well before the new FO, I am currently a fan, and I will continue to be one regardless of what happens. This isn’t a cult — fans are allowed to have contrasting opinions.

There is a saying in baseball: you can never have enough pitching. That is one of the multiple reasons I never think we should have traded E-jax. And I’m not just saying this now, you can ask RJ, I’ve been arguing with him since well back into last season about this. I think paying anything near 8 million for a DH is not a good idea. Since there is no fielding component all you need is someone who can hit: I think we could have got that internally from a combo of Aybar/Zorilla/Gomes. The drop-off from Burrell to that platoon is well worth the sacrifice of being able to bolster starting pitcher depth by keeping ejax. Not too mention the team would have saved 5.5 million.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also, to clear things up with the Stokes comparison.

Nobody is crying about him being dealt for cash and turning into a good reliever with the Mets. Why? Because he didn’t have top prospect billing, or because people didn’t look for “signs of turning it around” for their confirmation bias in every single outing?

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Potential.

Stokes comparison makes no sense. First, he’s 4 years older than Jackson, which would be one obvious reason to think his room for improvement was smaller. Second, his FIP (as a reliever) was worse than Jackson’s (as a starter) in 2007. In 2006, his FIP was slightly lower than Jacksons based on a sample size of 24 innings, which is really too small to draw any conclusions. Although he has a decent fastball it definitely topped out lower than Jacksons in almost every appearance. Finally, the organization saw him as a reliever and losing a good reliever (which he isn’t) is not nearly as big a loss as losing a good starter. Is that enough reasons for why people didn’t get all bent out of shape about Stokes?

Reasons to suspect Edwin might improve:

- 24 years old in 2008
- improving bb/9 ratios for three straight seasons (6.19, 4.92, 3.78 — this year it is 2.18)
- splits between the stretch and the windup: in 2008 ops against out of windup: .830, ops against out of stretch: .754. You can say this was luck, which is possible but to me it screams that a tinkering with mechanics could improve Jackson. One of the major reasons for the difference in OPSa was his walk rate form the stretch which was about 50% of what it was from the windup. Room for improvement.
- exceptional fastball velocity
- above average slider ( as evidence by positive linear pitch weights in 07 and 08).

So those are some of the reasons for the " absolute blind faith" I had in Jackson.

Finally, I never said or even implied that Friedman woke up one day and just decided to trade Jackson on gut instinct. I do believe his evaluation, however thorough, underestimated the potential of Jackson. Thus, the process was not good. Trades are all about predicting future performance.

As for the the PtB comparison, I think it is fair to say that the team has a limited payroll. Money spent on a DH would have been better spent on bolstering SP depth. The decline of Kazmir and Sonny just goes to prove the statement that “you can never have enough pitching.” Based on their past numbers (not this year), a platoon of Gomes/Aybar would put up a very similar wOBA and WAR to Burrell for substantially less money. I would have preferred if the team spent that money somewhere else. Even if Burrell were matching a career year I don’t think would have been worth it.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

So.

Age. No.
Velocity. Yes.
Improving walk rates. Fair, and the declining K rates? And the increasing HR rates?
Splits. So one years worth of data means he tinkered mechanics? Yeah, no.
Stuff. Yes.

So “He’s young and has good stuff, oh and let me cherry pick a data point.”

That doesn’t work for me.

And you can have too much pitching, when it means you’re fielding a bunch of replacement level hitters.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

don't care if it does or doesn't work for you.

It was enough for me (and others) to see potential. And for you, of all people, to accuse someone of cherry picking stats is pretty hilarious. If all his stats were good then there wouldn’t be any room for improvement. By the very definition of "looking for potential: you have to pick out certain stats. I expected better from you.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Okay. Play that card.

Because Keith Law, Dave Cameron, Andrew Friedman, and James Click agree with me.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

You said "me (and others)"

You started this. Not me. I don’t play the “X agrees with me” card very often. If ever.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

didn't mean anything by it

just trying to point out I wasn’t on an island, I’m just the only one who continues to argue about it.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm trying to figure this out, really.

I replied saying that pitchers don’t age like hitters, so I don’t agree, that he did have good stuff (Still does, apparently) and that I disagreed with your speculation regarding his strand rate being significant and felt you were cherry picking one data point out of his career.

Your reply:
Well I’m not alone.

Me:
???

I think that’s a good wrapping place for me. I’m done with this. I tried explaining it without snark and it ended with something ridiculous.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

That post was meant more to say that

in order to find potential for improvement you have to “cherry pick” stats to a certain extent. If they were all improving then we wouldn’t be worrying about potential he would be a good pitcher already.

Just because pitchers don’t age like hitters doesn’t mean that a 24 year old doesn’t have more potential than 30yo. I don’t follow you on that one.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

You didn't

just how I feel since I always have a different person arguing with me, nut never seem to have anyone on my side.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also, I know his BABIP is unsustainably low this year

but even when it regresses I still think he would have be a valuable asset to the team

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

You pull the "agrees with me card" every time on this argument

And there are plenty of big names that would agree with RtR as well, just not necessarily names you’d personally respect as much. There is something to scouting versus saber, and there’s a reason that the scouting methods have worked for 100 years other than just dumb luck. It’s best to take both sides of that equation into account, not to just completely ignore one side.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jun 2, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, I don't.

And I’ve talked to scouts about Edwin. Stop being so smug.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

And by 'expected better'

I didn’t mean for you to agree with me. That was directed at your accusation of “cherry picking stats.”

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

As for the Stokes thing.

Sub-3 ERA!!!! He’s better than whoever on staff. I would name names but I don’t even look at ERA.

Good stuff and since age doesn’t matter a ton, he may have figured it out in a consistent role.

I bet Friedman spent that cash on someone like Andy Cannizaro.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not sure what you are talking about.

Just some incoherent ranting about ERA which no one even mentioned.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great post

Fair and balanced, just like FoxSpews

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jun 2, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Of course

I should have read further down into the thread first, where the argument turned back into the one-sided “the stats say X and therefore I’m right” argument.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jun 2, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

oops.

I’d rather 2.5 mil on a starting pitcher (even one with questionable peripherals) than 8 mil on a dh . The money argument holds little water. Joyce will probably turn out decent, but if Jackson keeps this up then it was a bad trade. Others have and will argue that the process was good, but I disagree as I have explained why many times before.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions  

I see other peoples point, but I am with you Rays The Roof...

To a point. I mean, I didn’t agree with the EJax trade when it went down either, but DH was a need going into last off season. A platoon of Aybar/Zorilla/Gomes wouldn’t have sufficed. I know Zo is having a pretty good year, but we didn’t know that going into the season. Plus the fact that the Rays utilize Zobrist as a super utility guy anyway, so DH’ing all the time would do him no good.

by Longorious on Jun 1, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brian Stokes has a sub-2.8 ERA and we dealt him for cash.

We’re going to regret that trade for a long time. Cash has lost value since.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions  

CPI only went up .1 in 2008

It shouldn’t hurt too much

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 1, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Travis Schlichting was dealt for Josh Paul

He was converted to pitcher, played indy ball for a year and yesterday was called up by the Dodgers.

We’re going to regret that trade for a long time.

Friedman = 99-2

Today, we are all Honkballers.

by RATW on Jun 1, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bad decision

Can the mofo throw?

Yes he can.

The mofo can throw like nobody’s business.

by Gator80 on Jun 1, 2009 7:24 PM EDT reply actions  

he couldn't throw too well last year

i guess if friedman had a time machine it might have been considered a mistake, huh?

by mittens on Jun 2, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

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