Edwin Jackson pitches 2 hitter
I know this is really old hat and Matt Joyce hitting a homer in his first game since being called back up helps, but damn. Andrew Friedman is officially 99-1 in trades that have benefited the team IMO. Unless Edwin Jackson has a monumental collapse (which is SO possible), then Detroit so far has beaten us in this trade. Granted, we may win in the long haul, but that does nothing for me now with Sonny sucking and Kaz crapping up the joint.
over 2 years ago
Longorious
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Andrew Friedman is officially 99-1 in trades that have benefited the team IMO
Jackson has had 11 starts. It’s too early to call this a bad trade.
Yeah, the Elijah Dukes deal never did look good.
by R.J. Anderson on May 31, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Can we give Joyce some time in the majors until we make this determination?
God damn…
2009 Rays Baseball: God Damn It, Guys
by JMB on Jun 1, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Granted, Jax may have benefitted from the new park,
but other than that fact, almost everything else is in his favor. Sustainable luck (cept for the HR/FB), better K/BB.
Maybe Edwin is like that Pokemon that evolves after you trade it.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Is he throwing more sliders this year?
The Rays preach the fastball a bit too much IMO
JACKSON HAD ENTERED ARBITRATION. WE NEEDED TO CLEAR SALARY
jesus.
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 1, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions
Thats why we signed an 8 million dollar dh?
I’d rather spenstarting pitcher (even one with questionable peripherals) than 8 mil on a dh . The money argument holdd 2.5 million on a s little water. Joyce will probably turn out decent, but if Jackson keeps this up then it was a bad trade. Others have and will argue that the process was good, but I disagree as I have explained why many times before.
We signed an 8 million $ DH because that position was the team's greatest need.
It’s fact that the front office needed to free up payroll in order to acquire a real DH. While it’s unfortunate that Burrell has underperformed and been hurt, based on Edwin’s prior performances it was a logical decision to get a return on him.
You can’t use hindsight to evaluate decisions because it’s a cheat. Think about what the organization knew at the time. Besides, it’s not like we cut bait on Jackson like we did with a certain Rule 5 pick in 2007. We got a good player back, for cheap. This is how the organization operates. If you don’t like it, go root for the Yankees.
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 1, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, you're right.
Not protecting a guy worth 7.5 wins in 2 seasons was a great move considering all the “stars” we had on the 40 man at the time.
I'm not getting into this again
I’ve laid out the evidence too many times. Continue to believe what you want because I’m not here to change opinions.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 1, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh my God! I criticized the great Andrew Friedman!
I disagreed with a move that the team made and now I should go root for the Yankees? You are retarded. I’ve been a fan of this organization since well before the new FO, I am currently a fan, and I will continue to be one regardless of what happens. This isn’t a cult — fans are allowed to have contrasting opinions.
There is a saying in baseball: you can never have enough pitching. That is one of the multiple reasons I never think we should have traded E-jax. And I’m not just saying this now, you can ask RJ, I’ve been arguing with him since well back into last season about this. I think paying anything near 8 million for a DH is not a good idea. Since there is no fielding component all you need is someone who can hit: I think we could have got that internally from a combo of Aybar/Zorilla/Gomes. The drop-off from Burrell to that platoon is well worth the sacrifice of being able to bolster starting pitcher depth by keeping ejax. Not too mention the team would have saved 5.5 million.
.
In 2006, Stokes had a 3.72 FIP in Durham, then pitched 24 innings in the bigs as a starter with a 4.23 FIP. In 2007 his FIP jumped to 5.76 as he moved into mop-up. Minor league splits has Stokes at ~390 innings and a 4 FIP. That’s not bad at all. Throw in a hard fastball and hey, potential!
Comparatively, Jackson had 194.3 innings in the minors with a 5.17 FIP. His fastball was harder and he had the hype train behind him. From 03-05 Jackson threw like 70 innings with FIPs ranging from 4.12, 6.78, 4.90. Nothing solid outside of that first glimpse of pro life. In 2006 4.52, solid, in 2007 4.9, last year 4.88.
Jeff Niemann and Jason Hammel were the guys to replace Jackson, not Sonnanstine (441.3 minor league innings, 3.32 FIP, 373 pro innings, 4.16 FIP) who has clearly had a superior career to date. Niemann has the first round bias and former top prospect label to cling on along with 393.3 IP and a 3.92 minor league FIP. Hammel had potential(!) and ~350 minor league innings of 3.55 FIP along with a 5.04 major league FIP in 250 innings.
Basically, the Rays were looking at Jackson, and seeing improvement in Niemann and almost an equal in Hammel. Add in the money and this was a no brainer.
Were they wrong? At this point it looks that way, did they just pull the idea out of their asses? Fuck no. They had good mindsets and had good information pointing this way. Friedman didn’t wake up one day and say “I want to trade Edwin Jackson.” then make the move right away. Everything they saw in this deal I can see, and saw before they ever dealt him.
So Edwin’s defying everything we knew about him. Congrats. It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have made the deal. Nobody knew this was coming and if you said you did it was absolute blind faith in a pitcher who hadn’t shown consistent signs of improvement or dominance in a long time.
And yeah, we spent 16/2 on Pat Burrell. A guy who hasn’t posted a sub-2 win season since 2003 despite awful fielding. Our DH position was the weak link offensively last year. Burrell made perfect sense. He has nothing to do with Edwin though, so I’m not sure what that matters.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Also, to clear things up with the Stokes comparison.
Nobody is crying about him being dealt for cash and turning into a good reliever with the Mets. Why? Because he didn’t have top prospect billing, or because people didn’t look for “signs of turning it around” for their confirmation bias in every single outing?
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Potential.
Stokes comparison makes no sense. First, he’s 4 years older than Jackson, which would be one obvious reason to think his room for improvement was smaller. Second, his FIP (as a reliever) was worse than Jackson’s (as a starter) in 2007. In 2006, his FIP was slightly lower than Jacksons based on a sample size of 24 innings, which is really too small to draw any conclusions. Although he has a decent fastball it definitely topped out lower than Jacksons in almost every appearance. Finally, the organization saw him as a reliever and losing a good reliever (which he isn’t) is not nearly as big a loss as losing a good starter. Is that enough reasons for why people didn’t get all bent out of shape about Stokes?
Reasons to suspect Edwin might improve:
- 24 years old in 2008
- improving bb/9 ratios for three straight seasons (6.19, 4.92, 3.78 — this year it is 2.18)
- splits between the stretch and the windup: in 2008 ops against out of windup: .830, ops against out of stretch: .754. You can say this was luck, which is possible but to me it screams that a tinkering with mechanics could improve Jackson. One of the major reasons for the difference in OPSa was his walk rate form the stretch which was about 50% of what it was from the windup. Room for improvement.
- exceptional fastball velocity
- above average slider ( as evidence by positive linear pitch weights in 07 and 08).
So those are some of the reasons for the " absolute blind faith" I had in Jackson.
Finally, I never said or even implied that Friedman woke up one day and just decided to trade Jackson on gut instinct. I do believe his evaluation, however thorough, underestimated the potential of Jackson. Thus, the process was not good. Trades are all about predicting future performance.
As for the the PtB comparison, I think it is fair to say that the team has a limited payroll. Money spent on a DH would have been better spent on bolstering SP depth. The decline of Kazmir and Sonny just goes to prove the statement that “you can never have enough pitching.” Based on their past numbers (not this year), a platoon of Gomes/Aybar would put up a very similar wOBA and WAR to Burrell for substantially less money. I would have preferred if the team spent that money somewhere else. Even if Burrell were matching a career year I don’t think would have been worth it.
So.
Age. No.
Velocity. Yes.
Improving walk rates. Fair, and the declining K rates? And the increasing HR rates?
Splits. So one years worth of data means he tinkered mechanics? Yeah, no.
Stuff. Yes.
So “He’s young and has good stuff, oh and let me cherry pick a data point.”
That doesn’t work for me.
And you can have too much pitching, when it means you’re fielding a bunch of replacement level hitters.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
don't care if it does or doesn't work for you.
It was enough for me (and others) to see potential. And for you, of all people, to accuse someone of cherry picking stats is pretty hilarious. If all his stats were good then there wouldn’t be any room for improvement. By the very definition of "looking for potential: you have to pick out certain stats. I expected better from you.
Okay. Play that card.
Because Keith Law, Dave Cameron, Andrew Friedman, and James Click agree with me.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Now I'm getting names dropped on me. I'm intimidated.
Edwin’s WAR agrees with me.
You said "me (and others)"
You started this. Not me. I don’t play the “X agrees with me” card very often. If ever.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
didn't mean anything by it
just trying to point out I wasn’t on an island, I’m just the only one who continues to argue about it.
Where did I mention that you were on an island?
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm trying to figure this out, really.
I replied saying that pitchers don’t age like hitters, so I don’t agree, that he did have good stuff (Still does, apparently) and that I disagreed with your speculation regarding his strand rate being significant and felt you were cherry picking one data point out of his career.
Your reply:
Well I’m not alone.
Me:
???
I think that’s a good wrapping place for me. I’m done with this. I tried explaining it without snark and it ended with something ridiculous.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
That post was meant more to say that
in order to find potential for improvement you have to “cherry pick” stats to a certain extent. If they were all improving then we wouldn’t be worrying about potential he would be a good pitcher already.
Just because pitchers don’t age like hitters doesn’t mean that a 24 year old doesn’t have more potential than 30yo. I don’t follow you on that one.
You didn't
just how I feel since I always have a different person arguing with me, nut never seem to have anyone on my side.
Also, I know his BABIP is unsustainably low this year
but even when it regresses I still think he would have be a valuable asset to the team
You pull the "agrees with me card" every time on this argument
And there are plenty of big names that would agree with RtR as well, just not necessarily names you’d personally respect as much. There is something to scouting versus saber, and there’s a reason that the scouting methods have worked for 100 years other than just dumb luck. It’s best to take both sides of that equation into account, not to just completely ignore one side.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
No, I don't.
And I’ve talked to scouts about Edwin. Stop being so smug.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
And by 'expected better'
I didn’t mean for you to agree with me. That was directed at your accusation of “cherry picking stats.”
As for the Stokes thing.
Sub-3 ERA!!!! He’s better than whoever on staff. I would name names but I don’t even look at ERA.
Good stuff and since age doesn’t matter a ton, he may have figured it out in a consistent role.
I bet Friedman spent that cash on someone like Andy Cannizaro.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure what you are talking about.
Just some incoherent ranting about ERA which no one even mentioned.
Good point Lurch
What would we be saying about overpaying a DH if we outbid the Phils for Raul Ibanez (bastards)
A. Signing him for that long/much money.
B. Giving up a first round pick.
C. He’s really old for crying out loud.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe the saying is
you can never have enough great outfielders.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 1, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
5 outfielders on a typical major league roster
12 pitchers.
What if you have 13 good pitchers
I’m not finished though, one of the pitchers is a “soft tosser” with a .900+ career OPS. I believe the problem is solved
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 1, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
oops.
I’d rather 2.5 mil on a starting pitcher (even one with questionable peripherals) than 8 mil on a dh . The money argument holds little water. Joyce will probably turn out decent, but if Jackson keeps this up then it was a bad trade. Others have and will argue that the process was good, but I disagree as I have explained why many times before.
I see other peoples point, but I am with you Rays The Roof...
To a point. I mean, I didn’t agree with the EJax trade when it went down either, but DH was a need going into last off season. A platoon of Aybar/Zorilla/Gomes wouldn’t have sufficed. I know Zo is having a pretty good year, but we didn’t know that going into the season. Plus the fact that the Rays utilize Zobrist as a super utility guy anyway, so DH’ing all the time would do him no good.
Brian Stokes has a sub-2.8 ERA and we dealt him for cash.
We’re going to regret that trade for a long time. Cash has lost value since.
Travis Schlichting was dealt for Josh Paul
He was converted to pitcher, played indy ball for a year and yesterday was called up by the Dodgers.
We’re going to regret that trade for a long time.
Friedman = 99-2
Today, we are all Honkballers.
I'm beginning to think we may have to fire Friedman for those erroneous trades.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder how these guys would react if they were Red Sox fans.
Theo Epstein has had more stinkers than good moves.
Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena!
Cla Meredith and Josh Bard for Doug Mirabelli.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
10 million for Byun Hung Kim.
Letting Orlando Cabrera go.
55 million deal for Edgar Renteria.
35 million dollar deal for Julio Lugo.
This argument is the zombie

Swav or Die
For the lulz
by SRQman on Jun 1, 2009 3:39 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Bad decision
Can the mofo throw?
Yes he can.
The mofo can throw like nobody’s business.
he couldn't throw too well last year
i guess if friedman had a time machine it might have been considered a mistake, huh?




















