Patiently Waiting For "The Bat": A Look At Pat Burrell's Power Streaks

by Tommy Rancel on May 4, 2009 11:00 AM EDT

Let me start this by saying I am a Pat Burrell fan and in no way is this meant to "Pat Burrell sucks" post. I have been very pleased with the production of Burrell in many ways. This is simply looking at the lack of power he has displayed over the course his first month as a Ray. When the Rays announced the signing of Pat Burrell, we all knew there would be many highs to go along with a few famous Burrell slumps. So far we haven't seen the traditional Burrell slump, but we have experienced a lack of power in "The Bat."

Researching Burrell's past, this type of outage isn't out of the norm. After hitting a home run within his first 25 at-bats as a Ray, Burrell has not homered since then; a span of 58 at-bats over 17 games. Luckily for us this isn't something new, and Pat has suddenly lost all his power. In fact, this is the ninth time in Burrell's career that he has gone over 50 at-bats in the same season without a home run. Here is the list

Date	Games	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
6/9/03-7/10/03	24	90	0.178	0.275	0.244	0.519
8/9/00-9/4/00	23	78	0.179	0.326	0.218	0.544
4/28/01-5/25/01	22	74	0.311	0.398	0.446	0.844
8/4/08-9/14/08	18	70	0.157	0.224	0.200	0.424
7/20/05-8/7/05	18	61	0.230	0.390	0.311	0.701
6/15/01-7/03/01	18	63	0.238	0.355	0.302	0.657
4/14/09-5/2/09	17	58	0.259	0.380	0.293	0.673
6/22/00-7/9/00	16	61	0.328	0.414	0.443	0.857
9/12/05-9/25/05	13	53	0.320	0.390	0.377	0.767

As you can see while Burrell's power is slumping, he has been getting on base at a .380 clip during this streak. And while the home runs aren't there the other hits are there. Burrell is hitting .259 and has 15 hits in the past 17 games to go along with 11 walks. Looking at some of the other streaks, like the one at the top of the list, it's easy to see how he drove some Philadephia fans crazy. Going on OPS alone, this stretch of games is similar to the 18 game stretch in which Burrell hit .238/.355/.302 from June 15th- July 1st 2001.

There are many factors that could be in play here and we've discussed all of them: new team, new home park, new league, and new role. You could pick any of those reasons and it could certainly be a factor, but we don't know how much. What I do know is Burrell's line drive and fly ball percentages are back around career averages, however his home run to fly ball ratio is way below his career mark. For his career, he has a HR/FB of 16.5%. This year that is down to 3.6%. For comparison, the Rays had one player with a HR/FB of 3.7% in 2008 and that was Aki Iwamura. I doubt Burrell power now rivals Iwamura's, but stranger things have happened. If history tells us anything, Burrell will start hitting home runs, and start hitting them pretty soon. Just like everything else in 2009, we just have to be patient.

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Comments

So you're saying our offense can be even better?

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 4, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions

Or just as good.

Assuming Longoria comes down to earth a bit, Burrell should be picking up the slack.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on May 4, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Longo down, Barty down

Burrell up, BJ up, Navi up

Unless MVB’s mysterious strength training regimen pays permanent dividends. Selena Roberts is curious.

by PlayOnWords on May 4, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

This as some players regress toward the mean, others will regress upward

Also maybe I should check into the Bartlett Code.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on May 4, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

I was a huge fan of signing him

and thought PHI erred by taking Ibanez

Right now, advantage Phillies

by Raymondo on May 4, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions

Bad processes will result in poetic justice soon enough.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions

You're getting way too profound for me today

I personally feel he’ll hit for power

Becoming accustomed to the DH role, and getting someone to hit behind him )Joyce) will help

by Raymondo on May 4, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

If Craw wasn't running so hot right now my idea at the beginning of the season was

to slot him in 6th. Stay out of the DP, keeps speed throughout the lineup, he’s a decent contact hitter, that can move Bat around after he walks, and it keeps the L-R splits going.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 4, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

That worked very well in the playoffs

I would move MVB to 7th in that scenario. Maximizes CC’s speed.

by PlayOnWords on May 4, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

CC may have 5 more fielders choices instead of hits if PTB were to get on in front of him. Fewer steals too.

by FreeZorilla on May 4, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions

He might also have a few more RBI since Beej is walk or bust right now

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 4, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Dude, you're quick. Where the hell did you come from and why weren't you here last year?

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on May 4, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

I love FreeZorilla.

Seems like he wants to be a writer, considering all the FanPosts he drops.

by Suttree on May 4, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Statistics guru "RGlass" is on notice.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

We've had like 4-5 new guys sign up this season who are great.

Tis nice, really.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

So that's what you meant by all that one in a million talk

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 4, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't get the reference.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Dumb and Dumber mixed with

the hordes of less rational dialogue that has been streaming through here lately

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 4, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Rich Herrera alts

by PlayOnWords on May 4, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Not positive enough.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions

In retrospect

It is unlikely, because I haven’t seen a single mention of Gordon Biersch garlic fries around here.

by PlayOnWords on May 4, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I was here.

Lurking in the shadows. To be embarassingly honest I never went into the comment section, just read the main stories. Once I explored the site a little deeper, I began commenting which led to my discovery of the FanPost. I’m surprised there isn’t more FanPosting by others. Is it taboo?

by FreeZorilla on May 4, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

People are lazy.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

This.

Fuck me in the face if I ever try wading through statistics long enough to write a coherent and concise fanpost.

by Suttree on May 4, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

FanPosts don't have to include stats.

There’s not a set protocol of topics.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I know.

The better ones tend to have a statistical slant, though, like ZoRilla’s shit. Unless I feel the urge to have a Hunter S. Thompson-like rant about the Trop.

Which is possible.

by Suttree on May 4, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

What is it with you people and HS Thompson references today?

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 4, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Thompson is ghetto-fab.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

In the sense that ghetto-fab as a term is soooooo yesterday....

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 4, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

That was my point.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't fanpost because rarely do I do full statistical analysis.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on May 4, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I only fanpost to rant.

Then 100 comments later, we’re back where we started.

by ReasonableDoubt on May 4, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I meant the Phillies.

Raul Ibanez is nowhere near this good. Signing him was a mistake, and eventually the results will bleed such.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

that being said

I think its fair to expect performance above what we were expecting. I wouldn’t be shocked at 3 wins, which makes the deal (at least for one year) alot more acceptable.

by Navi's_Navy on May 4, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Do you think having navarro 'hit' behind him

much of the season has hurt his power totals?

by Raymondo on May 4, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions

I did look at how pitchers were pitching to Burrell

and it looks like they are throwing more hard stuff (fastball and cutters) and less breaking balls (sliders and curve balls). What this has to do with the batter behind him, I don’t know.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on May 4, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions

More fastballs = lower iso.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Pat Burrell sucks,

and is killing my fantasy team…

by davidsmarch on May 4, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I believe we are tied for 3rd or 4th in baseball in total HRs

Crazy thinking that Burrell only has one and Upton and CC both have 0.

by Sveet on May 4, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions

Kinda weird when Bartlett and Zobrist have 7

and as you said BJ and CC have been shutout

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on May 4, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

I think Pena, Longo, Bartlett, and Zorilla

are the only Rays with more then 1 HR

by Sveet on May 4, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

His K/BB has taken a beating recently..

The walks were making his production bearable.

But I agree that he will be a good RH addition to the middle of the lineup over the course of the season.

by Doyouseeit? on May 4, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions

Still a .380 OBP during the 17 games.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on May 4, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

i love the guys OBP,

but he hits 5th, and was brought in to be an RBI guy. not that i mind him getting on base at a good clip, but right now Bartlett would be a much better 5th hitter if this is the power we’re going to get from Burrell.

by davidsmarch on May 4, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Even when the power comes back, I'd love for Burrell to be hitting out of the two spot.

That OBP is always going to be sexy as hell, and if Bossman gets on, you don’t have a ton of GIDP risk from Burrell. Carl’s a hot streak, though, and dropping him might not be the wisest choice from a man-management point. I’m sure they had to talk to Carl about his plate discipline, so “punishing” him after his recent improvement probably wouldn’t be worth the .5 runs (or whatever) we’d get from having Burrell between Upton and Longo.

by Suttree on May 4, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Burrell's placement

I still think Burrell will display the power we are expecting. Hes had plenty of warning track flyballs out in centerfield.

If you are of the opinion he will not regain his old power form, I don’t think you move him up in the order. If CC maintains his plate discipline, and given his success why wouldn’t he, there is no reason to tamper with BJ-CC. Get them on, and move them into scoring position on their own. No need to put a station to station guy in front of them to turn hits into fielders’ choices. If I believe Burrell is now a singles hitter, I move Bartlett and Aki up to 5-6 with Burrell 7. RF 8 and Navi 9.

This allows Bartlett and Aki to play the poor man’s BJ and Carl. Get them to 2nd on their own to eliminate the GIDP possibility. Once they are in scoring position Burrell can drive them home with his base hit prowess. We would maintain alternating R-L thru the 7 spot with a switch hitter at the 9th.

The answer still is be patient with Burrell at 5.

by FreeZorilla on May 4, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, I think his power is going to come back.

I just like his OBP in the 2nd spot. Even if Carl’s new found affinity for walks is real, it’s not like he’s going to crack .360 unless his BA skyrockets.

Though, yes, the Crawford-Upton combo is fantastic and will be even more so when Upton starts ripping the ball.

by Suttree on May 4, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

ok... Bartlett would be a better 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, or 9 hitter right now

but he isn’t going to keep hitting like this so what is your point.

by Navi's_Navy on May 4, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Ride the hot hand.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

i didn't advocate moving Bartlett to 5

i responded to the assertion that his OBP makes up for his lack of RBI production.

by davidsmarch on May 4, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Perhaps if Evan and Carlos weren't homering everytime up he would have more RBI chances.

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

RBI Hogs

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on May 4, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

12K/2BB over the past week must mean Burrell is getting ready...

by Doyouseeit? on May 4, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Btw Milton Bradley

is hitting .116/.296/.256 and has had a groin injury and a suspension. Things could be worse than what Pat’s doing.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on May 4, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions

Milton Bradley got hurt while playing the field?

No way!

by R.J. Anderson on May 4, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

and suspended for good measure.

/tomfoolery

by BrokeBearMountain on May 4, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm looking quite genius for saying that I wanted Bradley over Burrell

If we can’t have Elijah Dukes, I wanted the next best thing. Then he goes ahead and signs with the Cubs and does his Elijah thing and I can’t help but wonder what we’re possibly missing out on.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on May 4, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

He would be my new favorite Ray.

I would encourage him to abuse umpires and start fights at every possible momeny.

by Suttree on May 4, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Bradley as a DH would be fine.

His BABIP and LD% are extremely low which means he will start hitting soon. The fact that they are relying on him to play the field is ridiculous.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on May 4, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Milton Bradley will put up numbers in 110 games that most players won't put up in 162

In Play, Out(s)

by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 4, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I actually did want Bradley over Burrell

And I didn’t care about the personal history. I still don’t. But someone did make a point that even as a DH with the Rangers, he got hurt. I’m happy with Burrell even if he doesn’t have great looking numbers right now. I might be less happy if we could have given up on signing Kapler and gotten Bradley too if (when) he wakes up.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on May 4, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions