When Is Relief Is Too Much Relief? A Look At Joe Nelson and Lance Cormier
Joe Nelson had a bad night. Seeing as how Nelson has been one of our best relief pitchers, I'm willing to leave it at just that; a bad night. After all, as much as we are using certain relievers, we can't expect these guys to be great every time out. Just look at J.P. Howell vs. Kevin Youkilis. Howell is the guy you want on the mound in a close game, but it didn't end well. Hopefully that's the case with Nelson last night and not a sign of something worse.
Skimming through some stats, I couldn't help but notice some the Rays relievers are on pace to throw a lot more innings than expected. Guys like Dan Wheeler, Troy Percival and Grant Balfour are right on pace as far as innings, but for Nelson and a guy like Lance Cormier, some relievers are going to need some relief themselves.
As President of the Lance Cormier fan club, I've definitely been pleased with the 2.25 ERA/3.38 FIP performance so far. However, after the first month I didn't think Cormier would have almost as many innings pitched (20) as Andy Sonnanstine and Jeff Niemann (25). Cormier is a nice middle reliever, but he is on pace for 136 innings and even I don't want to see Lance that much.
Joe Nelson has a great back story and finally had a career year in 2008 with the Marlins. Until last night, Nelson has been very good for the Rays. He has the second highest K/9 in the pen and after yesterday's game he has thrown the second most relief innings on the Rays. During his breakthrough season in 2008, he threw a career high 54 innings for the Marlins. At this rate, he will top that mark by more than 20 innings as his current pace puts him at 78 innings.
There are a few things at work here. First, the Rays starters have to do a better job of going deeper into the game. This isn't a problem for James Shields, and Matt Garza has done a better job this year of going later into games, but the other three starters need to pick it up a bit. Scott Kazmir is Scott Kazmir and I don't think he'll ever be that guy you can consistently count on for seven innings a night, but more outings like last night (minus result) would help. In Andy Sonnanstine's case it really isn't Sonny's fault. Joe Maddon seems to have a quick hook on Sonny regardless of the situation. I don't know what more he can do except he less hittable. With Jeff Niemann it's a bit of a different story. Niemann just looks gassed by the fifth inning and has just one start in which he has completed the sixth inning(sounds like a candidate for a relief role). This type of performance effects Cormier and Nelson the most, which brings me to my next point.
As much as Joe Maddon would like us to believe the bullpen is "amorphous", it's really not. Hate it or love it, but Troy Percival is the closer. Dan Wheeler is his primary set up man and on most nights Brian Shouse should be your lefty specialist. J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour are your late inning guys, who I guess are pretty amorphous as they don't have definite roles, which leaves Nelson and Cormier as your mop-up/long relievers. Now both have pitched better than your average mop-up man, but the way the bullpen is constructed, they are the ones who will be placed in these roles most often.
With an impending David Price call-up and a decision on Jason Isringhausen in the next few weeks, a lot can change in the construction of the bullpen. In the interim, however, better starting pitching and a better Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler could go along way in providing relief to Lance Cormier and Joe Nelson.
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Comments
Last year i believe Rays
SPs went 5 IP or less 47x
Is that pace higher or lower this season?
I’d guess lower,so it may dispel the SP going deeper
by Raymondo on May 5, 2009 10:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Different Bullpen
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 5, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I tend to agree
If you can pitch you can pitch, if you can hit you can hit
by Raymondo on May 5, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Shouse!
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base."
~Dave Barry
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on May 5, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's the point when they don't even use his specialization?
AC/DC + Tampa Bay Rays = Big Balls on a Budget
by Orlando Rays on May 5, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
If there was truly no specialization then he wouldn’t even be on an active roster.
But he has value if used properly..
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base."
~Dave Barry
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on May 5, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's fine.
You really don’t need a LOOGY, but okay, if you want one against David Ortiz then go ahead and carry Shouse. Just the whole defined roles thing is annoying and the idea that you need a checklist of specialists to succeed.
by R.J. Anderson on May 5, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, lord knows how difficult it is to get Ortiz out
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 5, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's almost like 'slugging' 1B/DH types are overrated by the mainstream media.
by R.J. Anderson on May 5, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Explain Pujols and Gonzalez's constant underratedness
In Play, Out(s)
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 5, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They play for St. Louis and San Diego.
And the best player in the league will always be underrated.
by R.J. Anderson on May 5, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yanks could not do it.
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base."
~Dave Barry
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on May 5, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about Gross/Kapler? Platoons work. Specialists in the pen is the same concept
You don’t need them to suceed. I’m all for having well rounded players across the board. But given the number of roster spots you could have specialists or platoonmates that create a situation where the sum is greater than its parts. Of course it requires the manager to platoon or pitch the player at the proper time.
Basically it comes down to a simple concept. If we have players on the roster that deserve to be platoon or specialized, then we might as well do that. We should put the players in the best positions in order to succeed and help the team win.
Gross against lefties and Shouse against righties can break our hearts, but Gross against righties and Shouse against lefties will give us a box of yummy chocolates. Why don’t we skip the heartbreak and just eat the chocolate?
by matthan on May 5, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except when Gross starts vs. a RHP he's usually going to play the whole game
Having seven guys in the pen and using one of them to face one batter, puts more work on everybody. It can still work if you don’t have a washed up closer who you can ONLY use in the 9th inning.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 5, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is up to the FO and the Manager to create the best team though
Since we have a bad back end of the pen then the Rays FO should have known that we do not have room for a pitcher with extreme splits. Forcing a pitcher to go against his extreme split is just asking for a world of hurt.
But then again Gross against a RHP all game is essentially a guaranteed 0-4 with 3k’s.
by matthan on May 5, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a comparison at all.
Middle relief types are ridiculously valueless. Plus, are you really comparing 400 PAs + fielding to a left-handed specialist? And I’ve said before, pinch hitting for Gross or Kapler when a lefty/righty comes in is a pretty marginal benefit at most.
Seriously, this is a non-comparison. The two are nowhere near the same in usage or value.
by R.J. Anderson on May 5, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When did I say they had the same usage or value?
I said you should put your players in the best position possible for them to succeed and to help the team win. Do you disagree with that?
So you are saying we should just have Shouse face righties and always throw Percival and Wheeler in high leverage spots?
Or are you saying you totally disagree with the signing of Shouse in the first place?
by matthan on May 5, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's referring more to the way the Yanks used to Farsnworth set up Rivera, no matter what the situation
or really how bad Farnsworth actually was. Also, Rivera solely being used for the 9th.
I don’t think RJ believes that you shouldn’t have relievers for high leverage situations and relievers for low levreage situations, but that all comes down to the quality of pitchers you have. It’s more of the “this guy only pitches this inning” philosophy.
by Suttree on May 5, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand that, and I agree in that sense
I also think if you have a pitcher that sucks against righties but is great vs lefties then you should pitch him mainly against lefties. If our roster construction doesn’t allow for him to face mainly lefties then we shouldn’t have signed him in the first place.
by matthan on May 5, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, we're kind of blowing it up over one instance where Joe, for whatever reason,
elected not to use Howell in a situation begging for him.
Shouse is perfectly helpful, and frankly, I like having him. He’s got a sexy ground ball rate and he’s as close as it gets to a guaranteed out against big lefty bats. It’s when you start having three or four guys like that, you start having problems. It’s just taking away from having better offensive options.
by Suttree on May 5, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For instance, looking at our pen in terms of effectiveness:
1. Howell
2. Balfour
3. Nelson
4. Cormier
5. Wheeler
6. Shouse
7. Percy
Even though Cormier and Nelson are designated as long and middle relief, they really shouldn’t solely be used in those situations. Both are more than capable of coming into the 7th-8th-9th and pitching in a close game. Obviously, you’d rather have Howell or Balfour come into a situation against the top of the order with runners on.
by Suttree on May 5, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We should just throw Kapler
When the game is out of hand….
by matthan on May 5, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also Nelson did pitch in the most important portion of the game last night
by matthan on May 5, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He had a rough game.
That doesn’t erase the quality work he did before them. I’m not saying he’s Rivera or Eck, but the man’s a quality reliever and he can pitch just fine. He just wasn’t locating last night, though I wouldn’t have used him with that many runners on anyway.
I do find Joe’s usage of Balfour this year to be odd. How many high leverage situations has Grant been used in? Two? Seems like he’s always coming in when the deficit is all ready 4 runs+.
by Suttree on May 5, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm all for Nelson being used in that spot
I wasn’t arguing against it, but rather showing that it is in fact happened.
by matthan on May 5, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems that...
Only Cormier, Percy, and Wheeler have “defined” roles. Cormier long relief, Wheeler 8th, and Percy 9th. The rest of the group has been swinging back and forth between high and low leverage and handedness.
by matthan on May 5, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is a problem.
Wheeler and Percy really shouldn’t be committed to the 8th and 9th. I’m pretty dissapointed in Joe for that, considering all his talk about amorphous bullpens and his bullpen usage last year after Percy went down.
Hopefully in a couple months, Percy will be DFA’d or on the DL, Izzy won’t be here to “close” and Joe will go back to what brung him.
by Suttree on May 5, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Besides every upgrade is just a marginal benefit. Players are so close in talent that any switch between them is marginal. In order to create a great team you have to take advantage of as many as you can. Over the course of the season, if Gross is in a true platoon, you’d have perhaps 50 opportunities to pinch hit him. You are talking about at least a .200 difference in OPS between the pinch hitter and Gross vs a LHP. Over 50 at bats that translates into quite a few more runs and perhaps a win or two in a close game.
by matthan on May 5, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
David Price is doing his level best
to remain in Durham
by Raymondo on May 5, 2009 11:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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