Longoria and Pena off to a Blazing Start

by Sandy Kazmir on May 7, 2009 2:00 PM EDT

The title isn't very good, but titles are for suckers. I wanted to compare the start these two are off to compared to other guys that ended up putting up great seasons. Using Baseball-Reference I did a search of all the players that ever had a season in which they put up 45+ Homers, 40+ Doubles, and 120+ RBI. This list netted 10 guys that have done it. You can see them below.

Player	HR	2B	RBI	Year	G	PA	AB	R	H	3B	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	GDP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ruth	59	44	171	1921	152	693	540	177	204	16	145	0	81	4	0	0.378	0.512	0.846	1.358
Belle	50	52	126	1995	143	629	546	121	173	1	73	5	80	6	24	0.317	0.401	0.690	1.091
Helton	49	54	146	2001	159	696	587	132	197	2	98	15	104	5	14	0.336	0.432	0.685	1.117
Belle	49	48	152	1998	163	706	609	113	200	2	81	10	84	1	17	0.328	0.399	0.655	1.054
Walker	49	46	130	1997	153	664	568	143	208	4	78	14	90	14	15	0.366	0.452	0.720	1.172
Gehrig	49	40	165	1934	154	690	579	128	210	6	109	0	31	2	0	0.363	0.465	0.706	1.171
Ortiz	47	40	148	2005	159	713	601	119	180	1	102	9	124	1	13	0.300	0.397	0.604	1.001
Gehrig	47	52	175	1927	155	717	584	149	218	18	109	0	84	3	0	0.373	0.474	0.765	1.239
Pujols	46	51	123	2004	154	692	592	133	196	2	84	12	52	7	21	0.331	0.415	0.657	1.072
Gonzalez	45	50	157	1998	154	669	606	110	193	2	46	9	126	6	20	0.318	0.366	0.630	0.996

My next step was to go in and look at how they performed in their first 28 games for that season. I used 28 because that is where Carlos is at and Evan is only one shy. This is not meant to be predictive or to show causality, but merely a comparison of a few of the best season's ever performed to a couple of guys off to a great start. Note I could not find gamelogs for Ruth's or Gehrig's seasons.

	Year	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	ROE	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Evan Longoria	2009	TBR	27	120	109	21	39	14	0	8	35	9	0	26	1	0	1	1	6	2	0	0.358	0.408	0.706	1.115
Carlos Pena	2009	TBR	28	123	105	18	28	5	1	12	29	17	1	35	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.267	0.374	0.676	1.050
Albert Belle	1995	CLE	28	127	115	22	33	12	0	5	19	12	0	15	0	0	0	1	7	2	0	0.287	0.354	0.522	0.876
Todd Helton	2001	COL	28	124	100	29	31	5	0	9	27	22	4	19	1	0	1	2	2	1	2	0.310	0.435	0.630	1.065
Albert Belle	1998	CHW	28	120	98	13	24	9	0	5	17	18	1	20	0	0	4	0	3	1	2	0.245	0.350	0.490	0.840
Larry Walker	1997	COL	28	128	111	33	46	8	1	11	33	15	3	17	2	0	0	0	3	10	2	0.414	0.492	0.802	1.294
David Ortiz	2005	BOS	28	119	109	15	28	8	0	7	19	9	1	21	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.257	0.311	0.523	0.834
Albert Pujols	2004	STL	28	129	107	26	29	9	0	8	18	20	6	6	1	0	1	3	6	0	3	0.271	0.388	0.579	0.967
Juan Gonzalez	1998	TEX	28	127	119	22	40	10	0	7	36	4	0	26	0	0	4	1	5	1	0	0.336	0.346	0.597	0.943

Evan trumps all these guys in doubles as well as having the second most RBI and OPS. Pena leads in dingers as well as K's. If these two can keep it up we won't just be talking about them this year, but for the rest of humankind.

Tweet Comment 9 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

How many players have had this type of start though and kept it up through the whole season?

by matthan on May 7, 2009 2:49 PM EDT reply actions

23 have ended with Longo's slash or better, 60 have ended with Pena's slash or better

I’m going to work on the guys that there are gamelogs for to see what their start looked like. I’ll post a link when/if I get done.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 7, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

What about starts though?

They’ve had great starts…but it doesn’t seem to be all too rare. There are great starts every year that fizzle out.

by matthan on May 7, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

No doubt, but I'm limited as far as data mining so I have to look at it the best way that I can.

If we put our heads together we might be able to find a better resource, especially because of the 23 that matched Long0’s slash only 9 of them are from post-1940’s which means no gamelogs, plus 3 of them are from this year (longo, Youk, Pujols). It’s not even worth posting. I’m going to try to take a look at the leaders after 30 games for the last 10 games or so if I can find that.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 7, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

One example that springs to mind is Nate McLouth last year

I know this happens every year, but do you see either of Longo, Youk, or Pujols falling off a cliff? It is more likely they return to career norms, which will still lead to an overall elevated end of year line.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 7, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm stumped and don't feel like putting anymore time into this

My aim was to show some of the company these men are keeping not to assume they will do this all year. Sorry to disappoint you Matthan I know you’re one of my biggest fans.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on May 7, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions