Whither Vintage B.J. Upton

by R.J. Anderson on May 8, 2009 10:59 PM EDT

Okay, Upton's racked up over 100 plate appearances now and he still looks rusty. Pitchers are pounding him with fastballs and daring him to turn on one and he's yet to punish them on a consistent basis. It's not a coincidence either, the league knows his shoulder went under the knife and that he missed most of spring training. So the gameplan against Upton is get ahead then pound him with fastballs.

Unlike Crawford's early slump, Upton is still staying inside of the zone, only swinging outside 14.3% of the time entering tonight. That's nice, but his first-strike% is 65.1, that's near old Crawford levels. So when/if do you move him down? He's obviously pressing out of his mind at this point. B.J. Upton does not swing at two breaking pitches in the dirt in one week like ever, never happens. You can also see him making up his mind to swing on the first pitch no matter what, just hoping to get into one. That's just not going to work. I don't know if moving him down elevates the self-applied pressure or not, but if nothing else it helps the lineup's health.

As for the leadoff slot, put Carl there, put Burrell there, really it doesn't matter since anyone - hot or cold streak - is going to outperform the current B.J. Upton. At some point B.J.'s going to start hitting like B.J again, it's just a matter of time, and how long the Rays are willing to punt the top lineup slot.

100 plate appearances might be long enough.

[And no, this doesn't go against what I said about cold streaks. We all know B.J. Upton's offensive approach, and right now he's not following it.]

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Does his positive presence in CF outweigh his negative one in the batters box?

by BamaRama on May 8, 2009 11:14 PM EDT reply actions

Not up to this point.

But he’s not (nor should he) go to the bench, if that’s what you’re getting at.

by mittens on May 8, 2009 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions

A 140 hitter who can play all nine positions at once, is hurting the team

by Raymondo on May 8, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions

You really think BJ should be benched?

Really? You think this team will compete for a championship without BJ Upton?

by mittens on May 8, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd get him some AB, but not at the MLB leve

They have to be concerned at this point

by Raymondo on May 8, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Options?

Gabe Kapler is a below average CF, he does not get good jumps and not very fast.. The lack of speed in RF is magnified when BJ (or Perez) is not in the middle.

by Doyouseeit? on May 9, 2009 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Bring up Joyce

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions

He's not saying take him out of the lineup

Just move him down. I don’t think anyone here wants him not in center.

For your question though…per Fangraphs (Runs Above Replacement):

Batting: -7.5
Fielding: 0.5
Overall Wins Above Replacement: -0.3

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on May 8, 2009 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions

YES

Have you seen Kapler in Center?

by FreeZorilla on May 9, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

I know this thread was tough on you

but i said this two weeks ago

Look what a boost Bartlett’s lead of HR was the other day

BJ and Navi are killing this team, along with our singles hitting DH

by Raymondo on May 8, 2009 11:26 PM EDT reply actions

Yes, because when Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria came to the plate in the 9th....

….they were thinking “Bartlett hit a leadoff HR, lets go back-to-back”.

by twenty5psi on May 9, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Since it's May

By the end of the month, I fully expect to see changes soon because we need a spark to get us going. The good sign is that Navarro is swing a much better bat the last few days. Even in his 0-4 game against NYY, he squared up a couple of good balls so I think he’ll be ok. Burrell is so confusing right now as he’s just hitting for no power, but I’d keep him in the 5th spot. He’s at least putting it in play & doing very well in RISP positions. But I fully expect Upton to be in the 7-9 hole very soon with Bartlett being a lead-off hitter. He’s just got too much upside even if his production drops slightly, he’s the best batter for that spot at the moment. I like to have Crawford, Longoria, Pena as the 2-4 hitters as they all give each other great protection especially since Longoria is the Anti-A-Rod at the moment.

by Transplanted on May 9, 2009 12:13 AM EDT reply actions

What upside does Bartlett have?

04-08: 1,702 PA .276/.337/.362
09: 111 PA .340/.382/.495

Guess which one will likely be Bartlett’s path heading forward this season.

by R.J. Anderson on May 9, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions

.209/.236/.233

That’s Bartlett’s line from April 2008.

I spent the rest of 2008 supporting Bartlett and arguing that his season line looked so poor because of April. Looks like I’ll be making that same argument this year with BJ.

That said, Bartlett just looks better this year. He looks like he’s capable of more than the .276/.337/.362 career line, but it’s near impossible he continues what he has done so far. It is fun to watch.

by tallyray on May 9, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Last three seasons: 284/.343/.369

Given the hot start he’ll likely be a little bit higher than that, but yeah, he’s not Hanley Ramirez all of the sudden.

by R.J. Anderson on May 9, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions

sine the all star break last season

he’s leading the league in batting against lhp, and leading all ss in batting average. Whatever changes he’s made at the plate over the past year have made a real difference in how he is hitting, ala the zobrist effect. I think there’s a good chance he could end the season batting over .300, with a potentially line as good as .325/.390/.460, and a bottoming out around .290/340/.380. He is a better offensive short stop than I think he is getting credit for.

by behn on May 9, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions

If Bartlett can put up his '05 numbers, think that's the year, he'd be fine at lead off

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions

I think that's the year he posted a 380 OBP

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions

The eye test agrees with this

I hate saying “he just looks better” but he does. Bartlett looks like a very good hitter right now, he’s just pouncing on the ball. He’s swinging like Pedroia, when he hits the ball he’s hitting it square and the results are showing that.

As I said above, he isn’t going to hit .340 this year and won’t slug .495. Those aren’t realistic expectations. But if you factor in the hot start with his true ability, I could easily see a season line around the .315/.360/.440 which would be pretty impressive.

by tallyray on May 9, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions

What happened to Bartlett's walk rate?

Just like last year, he’s down in old Crawford territory although so far this year there is a massive L/R split.

Today, we are all Honkballers.

by RATW on May 9, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Reason for concern, not panic

After 100 at bats we’ve probably gotten to a point where Upton’s issues do elicit a reason for concern. We’re probably outside of the bounds of random chance that he is performing this poorly. However, I’d still be willing to bet that the rest of his season more likely resembles his career norms then it will resemble his first hundred at bats. Players go through 100 at bat slumps. B.J.’s is just magnified since it is at the beginning of the season. Same thing Bartlett (our new darling) went through last year.

Below is a list of players who slumped during the first half of the past two seasons and then their stat line through the rest of the season. Of course this means absolutely nothing, but it shows that good players go through these things from time to time and their future performance generally looks much more similar to their expected numbers than their early season numbers.

2008 (Through May 7th) _ (from May 8th – season’s end)

Ryan Howard – .160/.287/.336 ______ .273/.353/.595
Carlos Pena – .198/.305/.396 ______ .261/.398/.525
Carlos Beltran – .210/.362/.362 ______ .298/.379/.526

2007

Rafael Furcal – .235/.306/.276 _ .277/.338/.371
Michael Young – .233/.250/.391 _ .336/.394/.425
Carlos Delgado – .214/.301/.291 ______ .271/.342/.492

by tallyray on May 9, 2009 12:33 AM EDT reply actions

I'm not concerned about B.J. moving forward for the rest of the season.

But I am concerned that he’s pressing. I don’t know if that’s true or if it would change with a slide down. If Maddon feels like Upton should remain at the top, I’m fine with that unless there’s something wrong besides just rust.

by R.J. Anderson on May 9, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions

That wasn't really aimed at you...

I just didn’t have any specific comment to reply to.

He does seem to be pressing. He didn’t get a month to prepare like most others. Also, the last couple games he has looked like he’s just trying to make contact on the balls he’s swinging at. The double the other day wasn’t well hit either. He’s also made plenty of comments on how he can’t wait to get going and wants to help the team.

Looking a little deeper, he’s taking more strikes than he ever has. His strike looking ratio is 36% which is up from the normal 30%. He’s struck out looking 45% of his K’s, which seems pretty incredible (Pena is 27% career, Dunn around 30%, I have no idea what the norm is).

by tallyray on May 9, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, while it's still early & lots of guys have struggled

The thing that really is concerning to me so far is that he is rapidly striking out at a higher rate than his walk rate has been. He’s not walking as much as he used to but still increasing his K-rate which is crushing his OBP. I mean at least with some slow starters like Pena was his first couple of years and other guys, they’ve at least been able to produce offensively soemwhat, I’m just seeing a lot more grounders too which means he’s not getting good contact. I just would like to see some bunt singles, I mean even just once an at-abt or something.

by Transplanted on May 9, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Things really aren't as different as they seem...

Upton’s walk rate in 2007 was 11.9%. Last year it was 15.2%. This year it is 13.6%.
Hit K rate in 2007 was 28.1%. Last year it was 20.9%. This year it is 30.1%.

Upton has reached a 3-2 in 21 of his 103 PAs or 20% of his PAs. Last year it was 132 out of 640 or 20.6%.

The differences in those ratios are really minor. At this point he’s well within just normal variance.

The biggest concern is a LD% of 14. His last two years have been 22% and 23%.

by tallyray on May 9, 2009 7:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Who is the 'real' BJ Upton?

Is he the 2007 version, who we had visions of being a superstar or the one since, sans playoffs, who is making Fernando Perez sound like Mickey Mantle?

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Upton wasn't as good as his 2007 numbers

And most analysts argued that. He stuck out 28% of the time and still batted .300. This year seems to be the opposite end of the spectrum from that.

Upton’s power decline is concerning, but he’s still extremely young. Since 1980 there have been 35 different players to hit at least 20 HRs when they were 22 or younger. Only Upton, Tulo, and Wily Mo Pena have never hit 20 again. The skills are there and he’ll find the power again.

by tallyray on May 9, 2009 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd take the 2008 version.

Considering his defense made him worth 4.9 WAR instead of 4 like in 2007. Plus defensive players are underrated, so he’d cost less.

by R.J. Anderson on May 9, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

BJ is a dead zone in the lineup

Dead zones should be placed lower in the lineup until they come alive again.

by rays_world_champs on May 9, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions

It doesn't matter that much where he bats if he is in the lineup.

If you’re going to keep him in the lineup it really doesn’t hurt all that much with him batting first.

The following is a list of the team’s plate appearances with runners on by batting order:

3rd 69
4th 64
2nd 62
7th 58
5th 57
6th 55
9th 54
1st 52
8th 51

What does that mean? The 1st batter has come up with runners on base the second least amongst all positions.

Change it to RISP and you have:

3rd 52
4th 48
2nd 43
5th 42
7th 39
9th 36
1st 35
8th 33
6th 24

So Upton is actually being hid pretty well at the leadoff spot.

The Rays lineup is actually working as it is supposed to. The #2,3,4 hitters are leading the team with PA’s with runners on base and RISP.

by tallyray on May 9, 2009 8:07 AM EDT up reply actions

A lead off batter should not be 'hid'

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed...

Of course that was a choice of words…

What spot, if he’s in the lineup, would he have been less of a detriment?

Do you really think he’s going to be a .270 OBP guy from here out? If not, what do you think he’ll be? .350? If so, his skillset with a .350 OBP should put him at number one or number 9.

by tallyray on May 9, 2009 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions

I really don't know

and i don’t think Friedman, Maddon or RJ do either

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Then the RJ answer would be

Do you go with 100 PAs or the past two seasons worth of data.

I’m sure Maddon and Friedman trust the much larger and accurate sample.

by tallyray on May 9, 2009 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I fully understand the meaning of 'sample size

i also know the meaning of the word aberration

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions

And what are you calling the aberration?

This isn’t a Darin Erstad situation. Upton’s body of work shows he’s not the hitter he’s been in 2009. We’re not just leaning on the ’07 season. He was a very good player last year as well.

by tallyray on May 9, 2009 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Define 'player'

He hit for no pwer, and his OPS was low 800 i believe

He’s a very good defensive CFer

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions

You realize he was worth 15.3 wRAA last season and only 27 wRAA the year before, right?

So you’re bitching over 12 runs.

by R.J. Anderson on May 9, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Would you be happy if last season

became the norm of his career?

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think you understand.

He was worth 5 wins last year, 4 in 2007. What number is larger?

by R.J. Anderson on May 9, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm more of a stat line

guy, and i thought his as a CFer, was very mediocre

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

^slash

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Probably because

A) Your evaluation of defense is horrid.
B) You underrated on-base percentage and overrate slugging percentage.

Essentially, you would make the perfect GM for guys like Beane, Epstein, and Friedman to rob talent from.

by R.J. Anderson on May 9, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Mark Shapiro, who i would

assume you put in the class of Andrew, Theo and others, made a very profound statement the other day

He said,‘sometimes you can’t quantify everything’

I don’t underrate OBP

i plug it at every chance i get

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

^OBP is the reason i'm tolerating Burrell

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I would assume with the thousands of stats

we now have at our disposal, we can certainly find some that fit our needs

by Raymondo on May 9, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

The logic of lineup construction that says right now BJ should get more AB than JB..

seems a a bit flawed.

The leadoff batter gets the absolute most ab, and to say that BJ getting more ab than any other player is the best thing for the Rays right now makes no sense.

by Doyouseeit? on May 9, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Even though RJ said this isn't really about hot or cold streaks because

BJ isn’t following his normal offensive plan, but like you pointed out earlier, that isn’t really true. His K rates, working the count rates, and walk rates are all right around his career average, it’s his contact and ld% that has taken a big tumble and I don’t believe that is related to process. I think this is just a cold streak, and I think he’ll likely come out of it without any significant changes to his ratios.

He’s been saying that he is getting in extra bp and working hard to get better, but at some point I have to wonder if he is fully healthy… if everything else is there, maybe his shoulder just isn’t strong enough yet?

by behn on May 9, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions