So, uh, Edwin Jackson's been pretty good so far
by Taylor H on May 9, 2009 8:18 PM EDT
68 comments
What are your thoughts (particular RJ's) on EJax so far? He has a 32-10 K-BB ratio so far, with a 3.58 tRA through today. His tRA* is 131.
Is this turnaround legitimate, or is the guy just getting lucky (no, not that kind of getting lucky)? I mean, his GB% and FB% are right around career norms. His Swinging strike percentage is a bit higher than his career average, but only by ~1 percent. Plus, he's allowed 4 homers already, so it's not as if he's been lucky with FBs staying in the ballpark.
Based on a SSS, seems like the Rays would be better with EJax in the 5 spot instead of Jeff Neimann.
Thoughts?
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Edit:
To make this very clear, I’m not questioning the rationale of trading EJax.
by Taylor H on May 9, 2009 8:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jackson vs. Niemann wasn't the question
Neither would have been(will be) in the rotation in a month or two anyway.
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on May 9, 2009 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Price is struggling in AAA
Maybe we killed his confidence by sending him to AAA.
by dannythegreat on May 9, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That seems like crazy talk
with all due respect
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 10, 2009 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If his confidence was killed by a AAA run in his second year out of college, how would he handle giving up a homer in Yankee Stadium?
If he’s a head job, better to find out now.
by ReasonableDoubt on May 10, 2009 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The haters will make up some excuse on why trading Ejax was a goodthing.
They are wrong.
by Sylar on May 9, 2009 8:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it's called factual evidence to suggest Edwin wasn't getting better.
by R.J. Anderson on May 9, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um, could you elaborate further? Did the org think Sonny >>>>> Jackson?
by Taylor H on May 9, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uh, why wouldn't they think that?
Plus Edwin was eligible for arbitration, and the money freed up from him likely gained us Lance Cormier and Brian Shouse. Oh, and they seem to really love Matt Joyce.
by R.J. Anderson on May 9, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry for seeming flippant. I didn't see your other post.
by Taylor H on May 10, 2009 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't understand why you would ask.
You’re using tRA/FIP and all of that, plus you read USSM/FG/LL. I figured you would’ve known Sonnanstine is superior to Jackson.
by R.J. Anderson on May 10, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was wondering more about his actual pitch selection/break, because I don't trust Gameday's reprojection of pitch data, which I (stupidly) forgot to mention in my original post.
And I forgot about Sonnanstine as well. (Sorry for the negligence.) But your explanation of his slider answers my question. I guess he’s due for some regression, but he seems to have made improvements.
by Taylor H on May 10, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah.
I don’t have any pitch chain data, but if he’s only throwing pitches classified as fastballs/sliders I’m not sure there’s much room for mistake.
by R.J. Anderson on May 10, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what to think.
His BABIP is unsustainable, as is his IFFB%. So once those regress, his ERA’s not going to look as pretty. He dropped his change-up, and now he’s using fasball/sliders, but getting more hacks, so maybe there’s something there.
I have zero regrets dealing him. At the time of the deal, he was what he was. There were no signs of improvement and certainly nothing like this.
by R.J. Anderson on May 9, 2009 8:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
To expand more.
He’s actually throwing less pitches in the zone, but he’s getting more strikes because guys are chasing out of the zone more often. Also he’s getting quite a bit more first pitch strikes/balls into play.
Looking at pitchfx data, the only noticeable change is that his slider is actually breaking LESS. Meaning it’s no longer a sweeping slider (so to speak) but instead a lot more compact, like Kazmir’s for instance. Nothing else has changed.
Dunno, let’s see if that’s just something that’s catching hitters off guard or what.
by R.J. Anderson on May 9, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's only May 9th.
I’m no stathead, but 7 starts seem like a small sample size? He’s disappointed before, and he’ll do it again. Just give him more time.
by rayweaver on May 9, 2009 11:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope he does well.
He’s a good guy.
Plus I feel comfortable in both my personal and the Rays evaluation of Edwin through last November/December when they made the deal. If he’s learned a new grip or whatever on his slider that’s not on us.
by R.J. Anderson on May 9, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually that is on the organization
If all he had today was learn a new grip on his slider to post a tra+ of 131 then the organization should not have been blind to this possibility. The whole point of a trade is being able to correctly project players. If they incorrectly projected edwin it is on them. Not only does the org have to use his stats but they also have to evaluate the talent level and the possibility for future improvement which would include things like a new slider grip.
Now I’m not saying he is going to continue this and in fact I don’t think he will, but to suggest that “it is not on the organization” if he continues to put up similar numbers is a failure to recognize the inherent nature of a trade.
by RaysTheRoof on May 10, 2009 3:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's not going to continue to put up these exact numbers.
And they didn’t only use his stats. Nobody is only using his stats. I watched him for three-plus seasons and I’ve talked to scouts about him. This isn’t just a stats thing.
by R.J. Anderson on May 10, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tigers fans point of view
Not to be argumentative guys but as a Tigers fan I have seen every pitch Edwin has thrown this year not to mention a lot of his action the last couple years and he is a different pitcher now. If you take away his start against the Angels he has consistantly pounded the strike zone. I’m not saying the Rays blew it by trading him because maybe he never would have gotten better with them but Rick Knapp has obviously helped him overcome his walk issues which was always one of his flaws. Don’t get me wrong I do not expect a sub 3.50 era for the whole season but at the very least the Tigers are going to get much more value from his inning eating ability than they would have gotten with Joyce as the 4th outfielder. In fact Joyce has already been replaced by Josh Anderson who brings a skill set(speed) that they were lacking. Bottomline is Jackson could help Detroit win their division and I highly doubt Joyce will impact the Rays in such a manner.
by dtowntigers4life on May 10, 2009 5:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Of all the cliches about pitchers.
“Innings eater” is not the one I’d want to use about pitchers I liked.
by R.J. Anderson on May 10, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially when they can't eat innings.
Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief
by Top Gun Numba 1 on May 10, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weird
That’s weird as of now he is averaging six plus innings a start and is 8th in the AL in innings pitched. Maybe Rays fans just don’t want to believe that a 25 year old pitcher can get better which is weird considering James Shields broke through at what age? 25 maybe? Also I’m not talking about pitchers I “like” when I say innings eater. There are plenty of things to like about Edwin besides that, what I’m talking about with the phrase innings eater is “value” and as I’m sure you know pitchers who can “eat” a high amount of innings in the AL are of higher value than a corner outfielder who will be a platoon player at best. Look I know that 7 starts is nothing but my whole point is that both Tigers and Rays fans have somewhat realistic playoff/World Series expectations THIS year and Joyce will not factor in the Rays making it and Jackson definetely can help Detroit make it. And even if he doesn’t we gave up Matt Joyce.
by dtowntigers4life on May 11, 2009 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Matt Joyce is good
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
by P Brady on May 11, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
PItchers don't prime like hitters.
Any pitcher can eat innings if quantity is your concern. I think we’d all rather have Erik Bedard than Livan Hernandez though.
And whatever on your point about helping THIS year, it really makes no difference. It’s not like the Tigers can send Edwin down and the Rays have Price to replace Edwin’s rotation slot. He can help this year.
by R.J. Anderson on May 11, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Joyce so far:
.330/.434/.557 in AAA.
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on May 11, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'll reply that Joyce isn't doing that for the Rays so it doesn't matter.
by R.J. Anderson on May 11, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but by that logic, Price is a terrible pitcher.
by Sylar on May 11, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reply
My reply is that while you feel like a Jackson expert because you’ve seen most of his games the last few years, mine is likewise that I’ve seen plenty of Matt Joyce and he is not as valuable or AS TALENTED as a 25 year old pitcher who has plus velocity and a plus slider. Plus Edwin has only been pitching since ’02 and can still learn a TON about how to pitch. Rays fans know better than anyone that he is still pretty raw.
by dtowntigers4life on May 11, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Where did I say I was an Edwin expert because I've seen his games?
I never even mentioned watching him.
You probably hate platoons and you keep putting value on velocity and stuff instead of, um, having a track record of success. That’s all I need to know about how you analyze baseball. We’re on two different levels.
by R.J. Anderson on May 11, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Typically, I agree that a pitcher is more valuable than a batter
See This from March of last year, but we were trading from a strength much as you were. There was no room for Edwin so you get what you can. I’m very excited about Joyce’s prospects in our future. If he does not contribute this year, then that means he contributes one more year later on when he’s a better player.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 11, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's also the whole thing where
Garza had success, wasn’t out of options, wasn’t in arb, and Joyce didn’t have attitude issues.
Plus the extra moving parts.
by R.J. Anderson on May 11, 2009 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see it as a classic win-win trade
I hope he gives you guys a great chance when you’re playing the Sox, Yanks, Jays and O’s. I expect Joyce to be just as valuable to us. Though, the Tigs probably would not have picked up Anderson if they still had Joyce. One thing that tips the scales a little in my mind is that we still have Joyce under cost control. While Edwin has only 2 more years of team control.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 11, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sigh
Josh Anderson
Check out that UZR. This guy is absolutely right that the guy fills a need. Unless you like the prospect of Guillen and Maggs flanking Grander.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 11, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nevermind, I was thinking Garret.
by R.J. Anderson on May 11, 2009 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dear god no
If he could throw wildly anywhere from 95-100 or have “anxiety” then maybe DD would think about pitching him up, but GA just doesn’t have the requisite specs.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 11, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a fan of the K/BB ratio.
From reading the comments, it seems he’s changed his approach a bit. Let’s see if he can maintain the results when teams change their approach to him.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 11, 2009 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm wondering if Galarraga taught him his slider.
Similar break and all.
by R.J. Anderson on May 11, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'be been told over and over again the
track record of Jackson, and i grant it is not good.It is also a known fact he throws a mid to upper 90’s FB and a plus slider
With a young pitcher with stuff like that, i tend to be more patient
Mot that i’ve done so but let’s look at the first couple years of Koufax and Randy Johnson
by Raymondo on May 11, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Where have you complained about dealing Brian Stokes for cash?
Because he was young, threw upper 90s and throws a curve.
Stuff isn’t the only thing to consider with pitchers, and you know this.
by R.J. Anderson on May 11, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're comparing Stokes to Jackson?
Let’s hope not
by Raymondo on May 11, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you miss Stokes last season?
7 K/9 2 BB/9 in decent low-leverage relief work for the Mets.
He always had stuff and upside!
by R.J. Anderson on May 11, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RJ, i'm a big fan of Joyce and think he should be here now
but Jackson’s upside could be significant,, more so than Shields, Sonny or Nieman
by Raymondo on May 11, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To me, and of course it's a gut feeling
Shields and Sonny need to be perfect to win, but a pitcher with plus stuff doesn’t always have to
I’m a bit lary of a pitcher whose best pitch is a change
by Raymondo on May 11, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shields has plus stuff.
His fastball velocity is average, his change is perhaps the best in the AL, and his curve isn’t half bad.
by R.J. Anderson on May 11, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you agree, his plus pitch is a change
that’s what i said
by Raymondo on May 11, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand what you have against change-ups.
It’s an easy pitch to learn and it’s fantastic.
by R.J. Anderson on May 11, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Much like Johan
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 11, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brian Stokes was not young.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on May 11, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't matter with pitchers anyways.
And he was 27. That’s not ancient.
by R.J. Anderson on May 11, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It matters when you've been in the minors for 6 years and never shown any significant track record of success.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on May 11, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's the opposite of Edwin. Given years to develop in the minors and never did beyond a servicable reliever.
Plus, scouts have never been high on him. Scouts have always loved Edwin.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on May 11, 2009 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As in all trades
there are multiple issues to consider.
Money is a big one here. E-Jax is now at $2.2 MM – replaced by Niemann’s $1.3 which is pumped up by his signing bonus. His salary figure will drop next year, likely to about $600 K, and both are ultimately replaced by Price. Joyce is under control for a couple of seasons, and presumably will allow the Rays to replace / trade another surplus OF – likely Gross with his $1.25 MM arb eligible salary – or decline CC’s big option, though that seems less likely by the day.
Timing – RJ is right that at the time the move made sense, and may yet.
But on the Sonny comp, it might be more fair to say that he had been superior to E-Jax up to now.
Hey, no one gets them all right. But the post mortem is premature.
by nyyfaninlaaland on May 11, 2009 1:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Edwin argument is beyond irrelevent.
What were we supposed to do? Sell Shields? Sell Kaz? For a guy who’d yet to look like he might put it together? Eff that, yo.
We’s got David Price and Wade Davis, bitches. Edwin can suck a fat one.
/wigger’d
by Suttree on May 11, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I aprove of this message.
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on May 11, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, get rid of our best reliever and rush our best pitching prospect.
Good idea.
by Suttree on May 11, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It takes a village to burn a baby
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on May 12, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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