Wheeler and Balfour: Role Reversals
by FreeZorilla on Jun 1, 2009 3:24 PM EDT
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Poor Dan Wheeler. Everyone wants to ship him out of town on the first available bus. Is that anyway to treat Dwayne Staats son-in-law? The reality is Wheelz is just misused. It's a classic case of going from overrated to underrated. DRB often refers to Wheeler as "the King of Low Leverage." Some take this as a backhanded compliment to mean he can't pitch when it matters. However Wheeler really does excel in these situations. Below is a table looking at Dan Wheeler over the last two seasons in low, middle, high, and very high leverage situations:
|
Dan Wheeler |
||||||||||
|
Lev |
IP |
K:BB |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
Str % |
FB% |
GB% |
LD% |
Neg WPA |
|
Low |
22.1 |
7.50 |
6.05 |
0.81 |
1.21 |
68.7% |
59.0% |
21.3% |
19.7% |
8.0% |
|
Med |
26 |
2.11 |
6.58 |
3.12 |
1.38 |
66.0% |
63.5% |
20.3% |
16.2% |
23.1% |
|
Hi |
25.2 |
2.56 |
8.07 |
3.16 |
2.46 |
61.5% |
48.6% |
33.8% |
17.6% |
28.6% |
|
Very Hi |
9.2 |
1.25 |
9.50 |
7.45 |
0 |
57.8% |
34.8% |
52.2% |
13.0% |
16.7% |
Negative WPA represents the % of outings the pitcher ended up with a negative win probability added. In 92% of Wheeler's low leverage appearances he has a positive WPA. Notice the drop in strike % and the increase in walks as the leverage rises. When some of the pressure is off and Wheeler can focus on throwing strikes he is highly effective. While he has a propensity to give up home runs, his continuous pumping of strikes can minimize the damage of the occasional gopher ball. Walks make home runs more costly, and falling behind in the count increases the chance of a home run. Let's compare Wheeler's numbers to the other two bullpen stalwarts, J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour:
JP Howell Lev IP K:BB K/9 BB/9 HR/9 Strike % FB% GB% LD% Neg WPA Low 51.1 3.33 8.77 2.63 0.88 64.2% 31.3% 53.9% 14.8% 21.6% Med 26.2 2.75 11.14 4.10 0.68 60.4% 28.4% 49.3% 22.4% 38.9% Hi 34 2.69 9.26 3.44 0 61.1% 30.9% 55.6% 13.6% 25% Very Hi 5 0.6 9.0 14.4 0 50.0% 7.7% 53.8% 38.5% 42.9%
|
Grant Balfour |
||||||||||
|
Lev |
IP |
K:BB |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
Strike % |
FB% |
GB% |
LD% |
Neg WPA |
|
Low |
41.1 |
2.19 |
10.02 |
4.57 |
0.87 |
61.2% |
46.1% |
33.3% |
20.6% |
34.4% |
|
Med |
18.2 |
2.20 |
10.61 |
4.82 |
0 |
61.2% |
60.0% |
30.0% |
10.0% |
29.4% |
|
Hi |
14.2 |
6.00 |
14.73 |
2.46 |
0 |
63.8% |
44.4% |
25.9% |
29.6% |
23.5% |
|
Very Hi |
6 |
3.3 |
15.0 |
4.5 |
0 |
64.5% |
41.7% |
25.0% |
33.3% |
25.0% |
JP's effectiveness is mostly even across all leverage situations, though he has struggled in minimal very highly leveraged situations. Grant Balfour is the polar opposite of Dan Wheeler. He throws more strikes when the pressure is on, while struggling in low leverage spots.
Let's group together low and medium leverage spots with high and very high and compare all 3 pitchers on two charts:
|
Low-Med |
IP |
K:BB |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
Strike % |
FB% |
GB% |
LD% |
|
Wheeler |
48.1 |
3.09 |
6.33 |
2.05 |
1.30 |
67.1% |
61.5% |
20.7% |
17.8% |
|
Balfour |
60 |
2.19 |
10.20 |
4.65 |
0.60 |
61.2% |
50.0% |
32.4% |
17.6% |
|
Howell |
78 |
3.07 |
9.58 |
3.12 |
0.81 |
62.7% |
30.3% |
52.3% |
17.4% |
Wheeler is throwing 67% strikes with a 3.09 K:BB ratio, better than Balfour and Howell.
The last two seasons with Wheeler easily exceeding 50% FB%, he has seen a significant drop in BABIP while allowing more home runs.
|
Hi-Very Hi |
IP |
K:BB |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
Strike % |
FB% |
GB% |
LD% |
|
Wheeler |
35.1 |
1.94 |
8.41 |
4.33 |
1.78 |
60.4% |
45.4% |
38.1% |
16.5% |
|
Balfour |
20.2 |
4.86 |
14.81 |
3.05 |
0 |
64.0% |
43.6% |
25.6% |
30.8% |
|
Howell |
39 |
1.90 |
9.23 |
4.85 |
0 |
59.1% |
27.7% |
55.3% |
17.0% |
In 59.2 combined high leverage innings, Balfour and Howell have not allowed a home run. Balfour's 14.81 K rate is amazing especially when juxtaposed to his decreased 3.05 walk rate. Wheeler's 1.78 HR/9 with 4.33 BB/9 late in close ball games will not cut it and has been a source of frustration for the fan base. It's time to put the King on Low Leverage in situations where he can have a higher degree of success. It seems pretty clear that Wheeler and Balfour's roles should be reversed. However, Dan Wheeler can still be a very effective part of this bullpen.
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Comments
I like Wheeler as long as he isn't in when it's a close game (1-3 runs)
because he is prone to fly ball. He isn’t as bad as Percy though for sure.
Swav or Die
For the lulz
Wheeler has a much lower neg WPA
in most of the cases including very high leverage. Interesting
Free Ray Durham!
Remeber, that is %
The reality is when Wheelz goes negative, he goes very negative. I;m interested in finding a measure of consistency across outings. % of negative WPA appearances was the best I could do. This does not acocunt for the magnitude though. As you would guess, the home runs crush his WPA whereas Howell and Balfour keep the ball in the park. When the ball stays in the park, Wheeler does very well.
I think that has more to do with the SSS of very high leverage situations.
In just high leverage situations, both JP and Balfour have been better.
Still, we're gonna pay this guy 3.5 million $ next year to be a low leverage guy?
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 1, 2009 3:52 PM EDT reply actions
I don't think this post is advocating that.
But as long as he is on the roster you should put him in the best positions to succeed.
Its not an argument to not trade him
just that he is not awful. He is grossly overpaid, but this was a ncie piece of trade propaganda no? If an offer comes, bite.
Agreed, it's nice to see him be effective
Hopefully Joe continues this trend. We’ll always have those 3.1 VHL innings vs. the Red Sox after all.
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 1, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure WPA really works with regards to low leverage situations.
By definition, you have to be really bad to get a negative WPA in those situations.
Is that correct?
Obviously, if you make a mistake you have more room to offset it due to typically longer outings. And if you make a mistake the size of the WPA adjustment is severely affected. Both positive and negative events hardly budge the WPA but it still goes in the direction of the event regardless. Also not JP and GB both have negative WPA%s above 20 for both low and middle leveraged situations. Another king of low leverage, Lance Cormier has a negative WPA % of 11.1%. It is a different skill set.
I'd have to check.
I swore that someone, maybe Thayer, gave up like 3-4 runs in one outing, but since it was 10-0 they had a pretty negligible WPA.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
-0.004 WPA
For 1.1 IP 5 H, 4 R and a walk.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
OT: JayPee is amazing.
“I’m just going to marinate at home and lay low, not do a thing except play a few video games and eat as much as a I can.”
Sign lady must die.
OT: There is a different animal in the Buster Onley chats.
Joe (NYC): Buster: Any chance? JJ Putz and Jon Niese to the Rays for James Shields. There goes TB’s closer…
Buster Olney: Joe: Putz has a huge option for next year, yes? (by Tampa Bay standards…) Hard to see them paying $8 million for a closer when their bullpen-by-committee got them to a World Series last year. But I like the creativity on your part.
Jeter Sucks.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jun 1, 2009 4:30 PM EDT reply actions
Yes, we're going to deal an underpaid top starter for an overrated, overpaid reliever and Jon Niese.
We should throw in B.J. Upton too.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Per Gengler.
Talbot didn’t make his start today (Mason did) and isn’t scheduled for tomorrow.
Either he’s hurt, traded, or called up.
Sending down Choate and using Talbot out of the pen?
It’d be nice if they decided to use Cormier in higher leverage situations, so they’re dumping Talbot/Sunny into the long relief role.
Nevermind.
Mitch Talbot was scratched from his scheduled start with some sort of arm issue—shoulder stiffness, according to one report, but no one in the clubhouse confirmed that
http://www.indyweekblogs.com/sports/2009/06/01/bulls-overtake-bisons-the-elementary/
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Most Dad's put a dollar bill on the ground so their wannabe pitcher sons can practice following through
Chris Mason’s Dad used a cheeseburger.
Rays Win!
He really needs to throw a decent game tomorrow
For his careers sake
He has really really hurt us this year. There are at least 2 obvious wins he has cost us where he was given a big lead and blew it and some other games where he didn’t give us much of a chance to win.
I really hope he throws a gem against the Royals.
Free Ray Durham!
Early last year he would have a couple of bad starts
and there would be talk of him getting yanked from the rotation.
It seemed like once that talk started he would go out and throw a great game. I am hoping thats what happens tommorow or else everyone will be calling for his head.(If they aren’t already)
Free Ray Durham!
I loved how he owned Boston at the end of the year last year
Made me so happy
Swav or Die
For the lulz
My Red Sox buddy was beyond words during that stretch of uber-effectiveness
Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 1, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
He had quite a few more good starts then he did bad
I think he had a short stretch of 2 or 3 bad starts back-to-back, but most of the time, even when he was ‘bad’, he made it out of the 3rd inning. But yeah, right now he is really hurting this team when he takes the mound.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
Good post.
It would be interesting to see their FIPs in each situation, and it might help with some of the SSS issues presented by WPA. Maybe not, though.
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