but it is hard to really extract much data from a career average on GB rates when there is that much variance from season to season. Even excluding the drop this year the 70 point change from 07 to 08 shows that large swings are possible. We shouldn’t think two years of varying results are the bookends of what are possible.
I’ve held the belief that power hitting RH hitters can produce well above average BABIP on GB’s (think of the ripped shots between 3B and SS). RJ, I think you pointed to a piece in the offseason that ranked the best and worst BABIP on GB’s, but the focus was on speed guys being able to sustain those rates. However, the thing that stuck out to me was seeing guys like Braun, Longoria & Manny on the list as well.
Could that be the reason for the drop by BJ? I don’t know. But it does seem like he doesn’t pull the ball hard much anymore, so the GB’s end up being weak to 2B instead of rips in the hole to left. So even though it isn’t a power stat, this could largely be a product of the injury as well.

what concerns me is the decrease in walk rate from 15.4 to 11.8. I guess that will go up once the regression starts since pitchers will stop challenging him so much.

the breakdown of the number of GB, FB, and LD that BJ is posting this season?

Is he hitting more GBs, FBs, LDs…ETC.

God that is a lot of acronyms.

I think he might just be putting too much pressure on hisself as the leadoff guy. I’d hate to do this to CC as it could have the same effect, but what about swapping CC and BJ? With the contact CC’s having this year and the walks, it might do BJ some good if he’s hitting well with men on. RJ?

You cannot have a regression without first actually hitting the ball. His contact rate (1-k%) is down from 75% last season (not so great to begin with) to a mere 68% this season. When you only put the ball into play on 68% of your official at-bats, it’s almost impossible to have a decent success rate.

He’s not playing well. Why the love affair with BJ? If Crawford was having this type of “success rate,” you would skewer him RJ. Don’t try to convince me you wouldn’t. If Ben Zobrist struck out 32 times in every 100 at bats, you would want him back in AAA.

Chalking it up to “bad luck” doesn’t in any way solve the mystery of why his strikeout rate is sky rocketing. Watching the games, it is apparent he is not catching up to fast balls. I love his defense, I love his potential, and I love what he did in the playoffs last season. Right now, all he has is defense. Even his OBP becomes a liability when his AVG is this low.