Tampa Bay Rays Playoff Chances Evaluated

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 10:33 PM EDT

Playoffodds_medium

We're right around 30% right now. For comparsion's sake, this is last year's graph:

2008_coolstats_s_tb_medium

If you focus in on June first, you'll see that the blue line (odds of winning the division) are right around 30% entering June. The playoff line was up near 50% though. The odds are clearly against us, and that's fine. But before you write this season off as an absolutely failure, consider that just about everything that can go wrong has. Short of Evan Longoria breaking his arm and Carlos Pena losing a leg, there's not much left for Murphy or random variation to sabotage.

That doesn't mean we're making the playoffs, but we're still alive

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Comments

Season's over. Moose out front shoulda told ya.

RD over and out.

by ReasonableDoubt on Jun 1, 2009 10:39 PM EDT reply actions

OMG Evan broke his arm

We’re fuct

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 1, 2009 10:46 PM EDT reply actions

Much of our adversity was self imposed

Percy named closer, and Jackson traded w/o Price ready

by Raymondo on Jun 1, 2009 11:07 PM EDT reply actions

You mean "Niemann/Sonny/Kaz exploding".

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Nieman is doing more than one would expect from a #5

As for Kaz, is his implosion that shocking? Look at many of his 2nd half starts

But you’re not responding to my assertion

by Raymondo on Jun 2, 2009 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Let's wait until Niemann starts facing some premium lineups again before we say that he's actually doing well.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 2, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions

like with any pitcher, it's not so much the match up, it's his command

by Raymondo on Jun 2, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

I like what I've seen out of him

It seems like Joe Jack is trying to build confidence in the fastball. If he can harness that and then throw the deuce off it he is going to be pretty nasty. Niemann is the least of our problems this year.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 2, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Niemann has the 203rd worst tRA, Sonnanstine the 201st, Kazmir the 212th.

In no way is Niemann “doing more than one would expect from a #5”.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

But he throws hard and has potential

I say trade Sonny

/punches self in face

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 2, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Why would we trade Sonny? He seems like he's really turning it around out there!

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 2, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

BUT HE HAS AS MANY WINS AS GARZA AND SHIELDS

by FreeZorilla on Jun 2, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

WHATS HIS ERA AND W-L, THATS ALL THAT MATTERS

by Buc Wild on Jun 2, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

i was SO excited.

so so excited for this season.

now i get more excited looking for Justin Upton in the boxscore

by daveh33 on Jun 1, 2009 11:16 PM EDT reply actions

Have to agree a lot has gone wrong

but damn this team has been hitting so I don’t think I’d say that anything that could have gone wrong had. The SP collapse has been killer.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 1, 2009 11:27 PM EDT reply actions

in 2007 I would have been estatic to have this team

2009, not so much, but I knew we would slide back.

by putupyourDUKES on Jun 2, 2009 12:06 AM EDT reply actions

I thought I read somewhere that the FanGraphs people couldn't stand coolstandings.

And preferred stuff like the Pecota playoff projections to it. Are coolstandings legit?

by Decatur on Jun 2, 2009 12:58 AM EDT reply actions

I must've missed the reasoning behind that.

I’m pretty sure Matthew uses it though…

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm guessing it has to do with the limited background data fed into the projecitons.

With BP’s PECOTA, you get performance regression and such.

I’m using CS here because they have backdating data throughout the season.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions

the season is nowhere near being a done deal

We’ve only just passed the quarter-of-a-season mark. You can look at percentages all you want, but so far, we’re within one series of getting back to .500, and any team that’s at .500 by the All Star break has a legitimate shot of winning their division.

Yeah, it’s been disappointing to see how things have gone, but you can’t count out a team this good yet.

by Zach Attack on Jun 2, 2009 1:04 AM EDT reply actions

Yup

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 2, 2009 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Just hoping we get to 71 wins for our 2nd most successful season ever!

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 2, 2009 10:22 AM EDT reply actions

You should call into some of the radio hacks with that argument

I would love to hear their response.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 2, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

I feel like if I called into a talk radio show it would show up to the people tapping my phone.

I don’t want the NSA to get the wrong idea and think that I’m the type of person who would call in to sports talk radio.

Especially when the socialist government (run by the Kenyan communist) starts cracking down on salt-of-the-earth right wing country boys.

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 2, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Praise Jesus

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 2, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

You won't be allowed to if Obongo has his way!

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 2, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I am him and he is me

LINK

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 2, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Pack up the Trop

I look forward to catching some Las Vegas Rays games in 2010 and beyond. Maybe the casinos will comp tix if you win big – HA HA HA.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 2, 2009 11:07 AM EDT reply actions

I hope you die in a fire after I stab you in the face.

To quote Junior Kimbrough: “If I die before you, I go before you, I’m gonna be there to open the door — come on in, mother fuck!”

by Suttree on Jun 2, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Don't blame me

Blame the FO for trading away a young pitcher who throws 98mph and spends the money on fitness models who can’t hit their weight; blame our “boss” centerfielder who swings the bat like each one costs a $1,000.00; blame our great Bay area fans for showing up all these years.

Believe me, I want this time to win. It’s just not in the cards here. Stu has tried his best, but he put in a too-green front office team to get things done. We overachieved last year. And most importantly, we used all these funny numbers to decide that we didn’t need a closer. Heh. Think the Red Sox and the Yankees are where they are without Papelbon and Rivera? Think the Phillies win the World Series without Brad Lidge?

Yeah. I’m just speaking what’s true, buddy. So save your knives to cut up all that baked crow you’re about to eat.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 2, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions