A Quick Look at Wade Davis
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2009 10:36 PM EDT
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PrintA popular topic throughout the rest of the season is going to be Wade Davis' arrival. It's almost certain to happen at some point this year. If that debut comes in September and in the form of a relief role like David Price or a spot starts here or there like Jeff Niemann, well, who knows? FanGraphs recently added minor league gamelogs, and I took advantage of them by creating this graph:
Davis seasonal strikeout rate is 18.8% and his walk rate is 10.5%. Last year, Davis spent a bit less time in Durham, but struck out a quarter of the batters he faced and walked 10.9%. That doesn't scream improvement. Over the last few starts, his walks have went down but unfortunately in two of those starts so did his strikeouts. The positive is that his last two starts have been really, really good.
The other positive news is that Davis' swinging strikeout rates are almost identical. Called strikes are down, but if you give me the choice of one or the other, I'm going with the way it is. Davis' stuff is still fooling hitters or simply overpowering them. Either way, it works. Davis is throwing basically the same amount of balls, meaning his control is just about the same.
It's been said before, and I'll echo it; Davis isn't ready right now. That could change soon, but rushing him for marginal gain in the bullpen right now over what, say...Winston Abreu could bring just isn't worth it whether he's working on something or not.
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If you believe in this sort of thing
Davis moved to the 1B side of the rubber early in the 13 strikeout start. And while the walk rate has been high, his strike percentage ha actually been pretty good, around 60%.
www.raysprospects.com
He has problems with left-handed batters it seems.
Which is expected to a degree, but his walk rate and strikeout rate get really poor against southpaws so far this year.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Lefties have always been a problem for Wade.
Tools Whore
620 is reporting Joyce sent to Durham and Burrell up..
Why not Kapler sent down?
It was either Joyce or Dillon
I was under the impression that since Dillon was out of options, they were going to send Joyce back down.
i dont see it anywhere
sure this happened?
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Jeff Niemann 5. Andy Sonnanstine...... Coming Soon: Wade Davis......Scott Kazmir?
It doesn't make sense.
Outside of this weekend, we’re going into 6 straight games where we can’t use a DH. Why bring up PtB now?
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 11, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I can't find this anywhere.
In fact the last Heater comment is that his return date is uncertain. I am going to the Charlotte/Dunedin game tonight to see Burrell play and have heard nothing to suggest he won’t.
At what point would you be happy with him coming up to pitch out of the BP, RJ?
I think it would be fine to get him up and let him get big leaguers out. Get a taste and know where he stands in the offseason. There is something to be said for having the confidence once he comes up to start that he has faced MLB pitchers in real games. I don’t think it would hurt his development if he comes up in July.
I'm on this boat.
He’ll be up in September, what’s another 2 months? He won’t be super-2 eligible, he can come out of the pen and face righties in high leverage and rack up innings in low leverage and Cormier gets bumped to the Wheels role. Me likey.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Bringing up top spects always carries the same risk
if he does bad and gets demoted, thats how they lose confidence, lets wait to be more sure that he is ready
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Jeff Niemann 5. Andy Sonnanstine...... Coming Soon: Wade Davis......Scott Kazmir?
Confidence is bullshit
See Balfour, Grant after ST last year. It goes both ways. IMO he could use a fire under his ass. Mid-July give him a chance to flex and if he fails send him back to Durham for another month and a half with an idea of what he needs to work on, besides cutting down on walks, and you can still bring him up in September. The only thing you lose is the option, which you would lose in Sept, right?
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I trust Friedman to choosse when its time
but Sonny being shitty, I dont wanna do the Price thing when he IS promoted, SP is what I wanted
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Jeff Niemann 5. Andy Sonnanstine...... Coming Soon: Wade Davis......Scott Kazmir?
As do I, but that second part is a whole other can of worms.
We’re going to need 5 good starts in a row consistently. That 6/7 streak we just had was because all starters pitched well and relatively deep. It’s hard to put anything together when you’re getting nothing from 2 spots in the rotation.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Its the future rotation either way
If we do it now or next year it will be Shields – Garza – Price – Davis – Niemann/Kazmir (waiting for Hell Boy)
i dunno, Sonny is doing bad too often for my taste, I wanna try him out of the pen, he already went all Kazmir on us and lost his trade value
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Jeff Niemann 5. Andy Sonnanstine...... Coming Soon: Wade Davis......Scott Kazmir?
Sonny never really had any trade value. I think I tend to agree with you on this.
Plus, it solves RJ’s problem of him “wasting” away in the bullpen. It will probably be hell on our bullpen with those 3 in a row. Here’s IP/GS for some big names:
Shields-6.8
Garza-6.5
Sonny-5.3
Kaz-5.1
Giraffery-5.4
Price-4.9
Davis-5.4 this year, 5.9 in 9 AAA starts last year
Let’s say Davis loses half an inning moving up to the Majors. Now you’re looking at our BEST 5 would be getting about 87 our of 135 outs in a given week, which means our bp would be responsible for 48 innings each time through the rotation. That’s about 16 innings a week for the bomb squad. If you put Price and Davis in over Sonny and Kaz you’re looking at one less out at 86/135 in a given turn. I suppose that isn’t much of a difference. This is rather simplistic, but looking at it I don’t think the bullpen would be taxed hard than they already are. Plus you would get Sonny slotted in there somewhere and lose a guy like Izzy or Nelly.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Sonny had quite a bit of trade value...
And I imagine he still has plenty.
Also, it is very doubtful that Davis comes in and pitches anywhere near his expectations. Most pitchers struggle in their first run in the bigs and it’d be basically a coin flip with Davis. It’s one thing to give him a chance if someone is injured, it’s a whole different thing to bring him up and expect him to be better than big league pitchers.
Wade’s rate stats in AAA are not that impressive. He’s walking 4 per 9 and his K/9 is only 7.
Sonny’s AAA numbers: K/9 = 8.37, BB/9 = 1.65
I’ll admit that Davis my hold up better due to being more of a power pitcher, but I’d gladly take Sonnanstine the rest of the year over Davis and by a fairly large margin….
I don't see how he could be any worse, shit I don't see how Carlos Hernandez could be any worse
Sonny is sporting a 5.29 tRA* which puts him 90th out of 95 pitchers with at least 175 xOuts/PA. It is still a small sample, but many pitchers are getting to the point where this statistic is more reliable. He has a 1.83 K:BB which is slightly behind the 1.86 HR/9 number he surely boasts about. He is getting less than 16 outs per start. His Babip has regressed to a not insane .329. His FIP is higher than his tRA* at 5.65 which puts him at 96/101 pitchers and 94/99 starters. His K/9 has decreased every year he has been in the league:
While his walk rate has soared this year:
For a guy that is supposed to be a “finesse” “control” (these are stupid by the way) pitcher he sure hasn’t exhibited that. I would rather see Wade get rocked since he at least has a future with this team, would not be super-2 eligible at this time, and could at the very least face Major League hitters. He’s giving up less than a hit an inning (56/65) which tells me that his stuff is for real he just needs to work on controlling it. Give me a guy that has control problems, but can still get people out over a guy that has command problems that gets roasted.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'd rather give Sonny a chance to improve
And I think it’s necessary for a couple reasons:
1) He’s proven in the past that he can have some level of success. His walks are up and his HRs are up. That’s not a good combination. The walk situation is out of the ordinary since he has been a “control” pitcher throughout his career.
2) Davis is not a significant improvement. I don’t think he is an improvement at all. Why handcuff the flexibility of the team by replacing a poor performing backend starter with one who is most likely to do the same. Sonny is out of options and there is absolutely no reason for the team to waste value by giving up on him now. Same as the Gabe Gross/Matt Joyce situation.
3) The difference between Wade Davis and Andy Sonnanstine is not as great as it looks. I wouldn’t count on Davis limiting the hits and HRs in the majors like he has in the minors. He’s walking too many (4+) and not striking out enough to account for that. There may be a chance he could put up Billingsly rookie numbers but he also could be Edwin Jackson circa 2007.
I generally agree, except that Davis can do exactly what Sonny is doing, and let Sonny
go to the pen where he looks like he would be a great fit. The walk situation hasn’t rectified itself yet, though he has had plenty of time to make an adjustment or get the feel for his pitches. I have been an ardent supporter, but if you can strengthen one area without weakening another I think you do it. That is just my opinion and I don’t care to put together numbers to back it up because it probably isn’t right. That said, last year we were getting almost a full inning more out of Sonny and that in itself is valuable. Putting him in the pen gives Maddon the option to use him in virtually any leverage as well as long innings if need be. To this point, it also allows us to cut bait on Nelly or one of the other Relievers that is simply not getting the job done. Lastly, Andy can focus more on hitting and running the bases if he is in the pen. (that one is half a joke)
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
The walk situation has improved...
He walked 12 batters his first give games (25 1/3 innings)
He’s walked 6 batters in the past 7 games (37 2/3 innings)
He’s also been getting a whole lot more groundballs as of late, which probably isn’t being helped by the defense. His HR numbers are also severely inflated by his last start in the joke that is Yankee Stadium.
I’m not going to make excuses for him since he’s been very poor. I just can’t imagine him continuing to be this bad, and would need a little more evidence before he’s written off as an average 4/5 guy.
At his best he is and always has been an average 4/5 guy
This year he has been a swingman on most teams. In the first 6 games he gave up one homer, in the last 6 he’s give up 12. I’d rather see him walk a guy that serve up another dinger, but that’s just me. The Yankee game is an outlier, but check out the hit-tracker data one was a no doubter, and the other three were not lucky or just enoughs.
The “defense” we have been running out is a great point to bring up as he is getting a ton of GB’s right now. Wouldn’t a groundballer fit pretty well in the pen? And Sonny, stop throwing the GD cutter so much.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure how much I want a groundballer in the pen that can't strike guys out...
That was Bradford last year and I don’t want that type of reliever in a high leverage situation without a great defense behind him.
Are starting pitching is a much bigger issue right now then the bullpen. It’s really about who you’re more comfortable with to finish out the year. For me it’s Sonnanstine over throwing Davis in the fire. When Kaz comes back this may not be an issue.
I, too, worry about the starting pitching more, and look forward to Kaz
coming back and tearing it up. Unfortunately, I am also getting ready to hear the next excuse he proffers as to why he all of a sudden can’t pitch worth a damn.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow, I feel bad
Your bitterness and disappointment remind me of myself when Shaq left O-Town
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I'm just sick of the excuses
Admit you didn’t have it or something is wrong, or whatever, but don’t say it’s mechanical or it’s the fans or it’s from not long tossing enough. Those sound like cheap excuses. I hate excuses.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Sandy's reply covered this.
3 were “lucky” or “just enough”.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Other way around
None of them were lucky or just enough, One ND and 3 Plenty’s
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Is tRA* still broken?
Because about two weeks ago, everyone had a tRA* within a run of each other.
Sonny’s K and BB ratios are the only things concerning to me. The homeruns and BABIP will regress, although maybe not as much as I thought prior to the last start.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
The initial sort on the leaderboard is by 300 xOuts/PA
Guys like Doc is almost there and pretty much most of the 1, 2, and 3’s will be there soon.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
A.J. Burnett has a worse tRA* than Sonny.
That’s amusing.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you see the other names associated with the bottom of the barrel
It is quite unlike you to look at one data point and dismiss the validity of something.
Fausto, Armando, Davies, Maine, Zito, Garland, Penny, perhaps you should take another look at it.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
You are reading far too much into that comment.
I wasn’t commenting on the validity of Sonnanstine’s tRA*. I was simply stating that Burnett had been awful to date.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you for clarifying.
It’s nice to see when teams flush 16 million dollars down a toilet and conventional wisdom is proven correct. Gladwell needs to write a book about guys in their free agent years.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
What is gained by promoting him, other than appeasing us?
He’s clearly not ready. What do we gain by bringing him up in July for 40 relief innings when he can rely on fastball/curve and not work on a third or fourth pitch as well as efficiency and durability?
What do we gain from promoting him that Winston Abreu doesn’t give us?
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Why is he "clearly not ready"?
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
What makes you think he is ready?
His strikeouts are way down, walks are static, homeruns allowed are down.
If you want to promote a Durham starter, how about we give it to Talbot, who’s probably been the best pitcher on that staff two years running.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
He's not getting hit, his K:BB is still a respectable 1.79 factoring a high number of BB's, and what else can he prove at AAA
The walks are disconcerting, but I would rather see a guy having trouble with walks than having trouble with getting hit. And since when is a 7+ K/9 some horrible, can’t strike guys out, type of number. Again, the walks are tough, but DP was allowing half a walk more at Durham.
As for Mitch, I have an unfair bias against him due to seeing him debut last year in the worst game I have ever attended of any sport (worse than seeing Caddy go down last year and losing to the GD Raiders to get bounced from the playoffs, though that is a close second). It is not fair to Talbot and it is not right from an analyst perspective, but it’s there.
Lastly, if we were to promote him to the staff I would do it in the first start in July. It gives him another 3-4 starts to hone what he needs to and gives us a few more weeks to evaluate the bullpen.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
"Having trouble with getting hit"
Sonny has a lower fliner rate this year than last year. His BABIP is still way, way too high and his HR/FB% is a fluke, you know that. He’s having command troubles, not hit troubles.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually his BABIP is down to .329 now.
Which is equal to his 2007 total. Still higher than you should expect with regression.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
His xFIP is 4.95.
Which isn’t very good, but confirms that the strikeouts/walks are the issue, not the homeruns/hits.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Homeruns hits are fielding dependent and will regress
What can he possibly do to improve his K/BB numbers? Outside of playing the Royals every time?
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Regain command?
I haven’t checked recently, but his release point was different from last year. That could be the problem.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
If it is
you need to be promoted to the staff, because you have harped on this all year and nothing has changed yet. If it hasn’t changed yet what is the likelihood of it doing so going forward?
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
What about his release point from 2007?
The year he varied his release point quite often.
He was severely hampered by an absolutely terrible defense and put up pretty poor numbers. He also struck out the most batters that year. He changed to a more consistent release point last year and the numbers improved but there was also a lot of help elsewhere.
Well you have two variables moving in opposite directions there
Which one is the dependent and which one is independent? Beats me.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know.
I also harped on Niemann throwing more curves, and as a byproduct, less fastballs. He hasn’t done that, but he has thrown more curves and since he’s changed the stuff I didn’t know about (length of warm-up throwing) his fastball velocity has went up, which makes the pitch better, if not great.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I was drinking outside last night with no TV's around what happened to Giant?
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I am quite good at reading box scores, why don't you just fffffffff
ade away.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Stuttering will never catch on...Silly kids.
If you want command info, I was at the game. He was throwing a ton of FBs (as usual) but seemed to be trying too hard. Either that or he was too nibly. I don’t recall him throwing more than 5 called strikes and he threw a TON of foul-offs.
He was very Scott Kazmir-like last night.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 11, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks maybe we should just DFA him
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
A little more specific:
70 FB, 4 CH, 7 SL, 10 CU.
Everything that got hit, got hit hard and was up and over the plate.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 11, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
That got cut off but you get the point.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 11, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Looks like he got jobbed on a couple of pitcher's pitches in the corners
You’re right about the ball being up they didn’t hit anything in the bottom third of the zone. If he can keep his FB down it makes the curve in the dirt a devastating pitch.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't really know.
I was fuzzy from all the draft coverage.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I think .329 is in the ballpark
I mean you know that there is a range associated there and guy is only going to be on his true babip for an inning or 2 as it fluctuates.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
He's around 46%.
So 46% true talent of his .321 BABIP and 54% should be regressed towards his team BABIP over that same time. I don’t know the latter, but ZiPS has regressed him to a .304 BABIP for the rest of the year.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope he throws rocks from here on out and I am proven disastrously wrong
I just get frustrated with losing and in this case prefer the evil I don’t know to the evil I do. woo cliche police
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I see your point...
But he isn’t striking guys out at an excellent rate and his walks are more than concerning.
He has plenty more to prove at AAA and that’s to improve command. I’m not sure how is secondary pitches are, but I’d rather him work on everything in AAA then be forced to get comfortable in the majors.
What does it hurt?
If you think he wouldn’t be signinficantly betetr than Abreu out of the BP, then I think you’re kidding yourself.
Why? Other than he's Wade Davis
I’d take Thayer over Davis as well…
It hurts because Davis could develop more in AAA while other guys have shown they can be just as good and won’t benefit as much by staying in AAA.
Possibly
But the dropoff isn’t significant enough to stunt Davis by bringing him up over Thayer.
I was awfully impressed by Thayer in his brief stint and he deserves another look. I also think Davis is being overrated because he’s a top prospect.
He has a 3.78 FIP as a SP.
Thayer’s is almost identical out of the pen.
Davis is a better pitcher right now, regardless of perception.
I don’t buy that bringing him up stunts his growth.
Are you seriously asking what does it hurt?
You don’t see how taking two months of starts away from a budding starter to place him in a relief role hurts his development as a starter? This isn’t David Price for a few weeks, this is July-September. I’m fine with a September pen stint like Niemann last year, but you’re messing with his durability if you suddenly place him on a relievers schedule mid-season.
And no, you aren’t putting him in Super-Two range if you bring him up in July, but that’s assuming he’s up for good. There’s a very, very good chance that’s not the case. You bring him up in July, and then next June, and boom, there’s a year of service time just like that.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
If he succeeds, isn't it worth it?
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
This seems like a fallacy.
“I don’t think we should make Sonnanstine our full-time DH.”
“If he succeeds, isn’t it worth it?”
“But…uh….what?”
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
His OPS is "only" at .817 now
maybe that isn’t such a great idea. On the other hand he’s got 9 H/BB’s in his career and has score 6 times. Sonny for pinch runny all damn day long.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Does that make Aki
Handi-capable?
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously.
I’m just not a fan of bringing him up this early to do the same job that Winston Abreu could do. And I don’t really think the quality is that far apart. Davis would probably be a ~3 RA reliever right now, I’m not so sure Abreu is too far off that.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Abreu may be as good, but is he on the 40 man?
I wouldn’t mind seeing him up. I think Davis as a 3 RA reliever is the second/third best reliever in the pen right now. We need that. I don’t think it hurts his development LT. If he comes out of the pen, he could pitch in the AFL and get some starts. Maybe a winter league. Then get a couple months next year.
Speaking of 40 man
Where are we at, and will we need to do anything when Chadford comes off the 60-day?
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
We can make room on the 40 man relatively easy.
Do you really think anyone will claim Hernandez or Riggans if passed through waivers? Vinny Rottino went through untouched and he’s basically Riggans.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 11, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
If someone else likes playing the DL game then I could see Riggs getting picked up.
Hernandez probably not.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 11, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
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