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Tampa Bay Rays Playoff Chances Evaluated

Good news:  Cool Standings has us at 44%

Bad news: PECOTA adjusted has us at 27%

Actual wild card standings:


American League Wild Card Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
New York 36 27 .571 0 Won 1
Los Angeles 32 29 .524 3 Won 3
Tampa Bay 34 31 .523 3 Won 5
Toronto 34 31 .523 3 Lost 4
Minnesota 32 33 .492 5 Lost 1
Seattle 30 33 .476 6 Lost 3
Chicago 30 34 .468 6.5 Won 2
Kansas City 28 34 .451 7.5 Won 3
Cleveland 29 36 .446 8 Won 1
Oakland 27 35 .435 8.5 Lost 3
Baltimore 27 36 .428 9 Won 2

(updated 6.15.2009 at 11:31 AM EDT)



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As long as the pitching keeps trending upward.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 15, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Last year we had a measure of good luck early

Based on the number of close games we’ve lost, I’d say it’s been the other way around. This is definitely a better team than our record. Is this the best offense the Rays have ever fielded?

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 15, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Uh, yeah.

We’re literally the best offense in the league. We’ve been extremely unlucky this year. It’s not a stretch to say we’re the best team in baseball.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jun 15, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is pretty close to Navi's level

Especially offensively. Last year was a major outlier for Navarro. Defensively is a different beast since it is a very hard position to quantify. He has certainly looked better defensively in the past although I’ve always thought he was a bad defensive catcher. Yeah he had a solid arm but I’ve always thought he was bad at blocking balls. This year has been far worse though. He wouldn’t be able to stop a beach ball thrown in the dirt.

by matthan on Jun 15, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

A 40 OPS+ is his level?

Navarro had a pretty lucky year last year. I can agree with that. But to say that this year is close to Navi’s level is pretty absurd.

He has a 40 OPS+, a line of .205/.228/.314… Do you really think that’s his level?

Navi hit .254/.332/.354 in 2006
He hit .227/.286/.356 in 2007
He hit .295/.349/.407 in 2008

Throw out his numbers from last year and see what in his past says he would be this bad? Or why this is his true talent vs. his career norms? As a 25 year old.

by tallyray on Jun 15, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

You just beat me to it.

wOBA (career): .300
wOBA (2009): .239

Yeah, he’s having a bad year.

by RATW on Jun 15, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, he is having a bad year....

But it wouldn’t shock me if he had similar numbers next year.

M.V.Z. Most Valuable Zorilla!

by SeanDubbs on Jun 15, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kaz

If he comes back and is able to pitch like he did in May 2008 then we’ll be in great shape.

M.V.Z. Most Valuable Zorilla!

by SeanDubbs on Jun 15, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions  

Even without that

I see us being in good shape. At the very worst, our offensive numbers over the last month will stay the same because of the returns of Burrell and MVB. Secondly, as projected, now that the bullpen roles have become a little more defined, things look a whole lot better on that front. Obviously these numbers arent going to stay this good, but it will be years ahead of where we were the first month. And lastly the starting pitching is all starting to even out and hopefully it will stay somewhat consistent. I think well see Big Game do what he always does, Garza start to put himself into the stopper/ace of this staff, Price hopefully going deeper in games, Sonny being Sonny, and Niemann to continue to throw in some quality starts. That being said, if Kaz comes back like that for the second half our chances obviously look a lot better. I still think we win 90 and miss the playoffs but so many things can change.

by BJ the Bossman on Jun 15, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like our chances

Mainly because I see our pitching as superior to both the Angels and the Yankees. The Yanks lack a quality #2. They seem to have a bunch of 3/4 type guys. Plus they are all injury concerns. Rivera hasn’t been dominating this year either (well like he used to). The Angels staff is a total mess.

by matthan on Jun 15, 2009 1:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Same Chances

Essentially our chances of making the playoffs haven’t changed since the beginning of the season. From RJ’s article on March 30 of this year:

The Rays are projected to win 90 games while scoring about 800 runs and allowing less than 700. That means above average run production and prevention, which is expected. In these 6,000 simulations the Rays win the A.L. East 916 times and the Wild Card 1,591 times. That means they make the playoffs 42% of the time.

We are still looking at a ~40% chance of making the playoffs considering the bullpen woes of the early season as well as the injuries. I am confident that we are a better team and will finish the season strong.

by timmyj on Jun 15, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions  

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