Series Preview: 6/16-6/18 Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 16, 2009 1:30 PM EDT
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Print6/16: Jeff Niemann vs. Jorge De La Rosa (8:40 SS)
6/17: David Price vs. Aaron Cook (8:40 SS)
6/18: Matt Garza vs. Ubaldo Jimenez (3:10 FSF)
De La Rosa has a ridiculously poor strand rate. His ERA over the last two years is around 5, his FIP/tRA are closer to 3.8 over that period. I'm almost sad the Rays don't need a starting pitcher and couldn't weasel him out at a low cost. I had a joke comparing De La Rosa and my ex-girlfriend's talents disappearing when a man gets on, but that seems predictable.
Cook gets a ton of grounders, but he's had some issues with the longball this year.
Jimenez is very good. He can match fire with Garza.
1B Todd Helton
2B Clint Barmes
3B Garret Atkins
SS Troy Tulowitzki
LF Ryan Spilborghs
CF Dexter Fowler
"RF" Brad Hawpe
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putting quotes around "RF" is a quality funny
Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 16, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions
Our lineup should pound those starters.
It’s time to bring these bastards back to earth.
Jeter Sucks.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jun 16, 2009 1:42 PM EDT reply actions
RJ is right about Jimenez
But he seems to be throwing a hittable fastball (3.5 runs above average this year) about 70% of the time. Curveball is sick though. Reminds me of our starter tonight.
In any case, expect Boss to strike out four times on Thursday.
So long, Sweet Lime!
De La Rosa and Jimenez are studs
IF they can keep their walks down. We don’t mind taking a walk so we’ll see how they like that. Cook had a great season in their WS run, but hasn’t been the same since.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 16, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
You'd think so
but consider this staff has a tRA of just 4.15, once of the best in the majors. They are not as bad as you’d think they are, and of the six arms we’ve had start for us, only Aaron Cook has a worse tRA than James Shields, your best arm. Don’t underestimate these starters – they make up the best rotation in franchise history
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 16, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Not good today, but no need to be snarky
Even the immortal Johan Santana got rocked this season. It happens. My point was that they are underrated, not that they’d hold a dominating offense completely in check.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 17, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Ubaldo scares me if he can find the plate.
He has looked very strong lately, but we don’t mind taking a walk, and that is his one weakness.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 17, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
He had the fastest average fastball in the majors last season
I think de la Rosa was top fifteen, but he’s really prone to a meltdown. HE had consecutive starts of 2ER and 22K total, but I’m not surprised he was the one who blew up in the series, but Cook and Ubaldo did a huge job of limiting runs if not damage on the basepaths.
This series answered a lot for our pitching staff. That 11-game streak was led by pitching over some pretty poor offenses.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 19, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Relevant discussion - Todd Helton
Hall of Famer? In only one of his 13 seasons did he submit a wOBA under .350 (last year at .347) and 7 times he was over .410. I can’t think of a guy I enjoyed watching hit more from 1998-. Does the Coors factor/stigma kill his chance?
So long, Sweet Lime!
Also
Saw something that blew my mind the other day. Albert Pujols is the 2nd fastest player to 1000 hits behind…. None other than Helton. Have to agree with you about watching him in his prime. The man could absolutely rake and played a very solid 1st base. I dont have all the relevant numbers in front of me, but over his ~10 year prime Pujols seems to be his best comparable (or vice versa). Such an underrated player and even more so when you consider he did it in the PED era. The guy never caused anybody any trouble and went out and did his job.
by BJ the Bossman on Jun 16, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Such an underrated player and even more so when you consider he did it in the PED era. The guy never caused anybody any trouble and went out and did his job.
I know we don’t do this here, but, just cause his name didn’t come out in a list doesn’t mean he was clean. To me, it’s more impressive when pitchers put up gaudy numbers in the PED era.
Todd Helton is easily a HOF
He’s having another great season this year. His agent also deserves to be in the HOF for the contract he signed.
That contract was seen as Helton taking a hometown discount at the time
That was when he was flirting with .400 and hitting 49 HR.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 16, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah crap, De La Rosa is a lefty
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Jeff Niemann 5. Andy Sonnanstine...... Coming Soon: Wade Davis......Scott Kazmir?
So what he's saying is:
I had called Friedman to ask him about the way the Rays manipulated the major league service time for their two young players, in Longoria’s case gaining leverage in their negotiations for a multi-year contract and in Price’s case delaying by a year his eligibility for free agency.
Translation: I went into this attempt to contact Friedman with the knowledge that I was going to accuse him of being cheap.
But there was no reason to hold off on that column. Friedman had a chance to call; he did not. Did he know why I was calling? He did not, and that was another Vaughn complaint. I seldom explain in a message why I am calling, I used to do that, but I found that if the person I was calling didn’t want to be asked about the subject, he didn’t call so I decided it was better not to alert the person in advance why I was calling.
Translation: I was going to ambush him with this accusation in hopes of inciting a negative reaction which I could write about. Despite the fact that it is borderline unprofessional to make accusations in this way, I was going to do so anyway, because I’m Murray Chass, former New York Times columnist.
Now Vaughn was not only acting as the Rays’ vice president for communications, but he was also acting as my editor. One of the things I like about writing for this Web site is I don’t have editors. I like having no editors. Most of them, I have found, have been useless, if not downright incompetent.
Translation: I am infallible. Anyone who criticizes my work is trying to censor me, is a moron, and clearly wrong.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
by kericr on Jun 16, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I had called Friedman to ask him about the way the Rays manipulated the major league service time for their two young players, in Longoria’s case gaining leverage in their negotiations for a multi-year contract and in Price’s case delaying by a year his eligibility for free agency.
That’s probably true with Longoria. Price was probably not ready as he has struggled in AAA and in the majors. Any GM that wouldn’t do what Friedman did with Longo has no brain.
It's possible, but considering this management group's track history, I'm prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt.
They sited his high-strikeout rate, the fact that he hadn’t even played a combined 162 games in the minors, and compared a couple of 3rd basemen who were similarly fast-tracked and how they performed once they got to the majors in addition to delaying his arbitration clock as reasons they sent him down. They didn’t use sending him down as a negotation tool, he was back up in a few weeks after Aybar got injured and they signed him to the contract a couple of days later.
There was no nefarious hand-wringing, mustache-twirling conspiracy from the start to send him down to bend him over a barrel and make him sign a deal. Only a old-timey NYT fishhack would dare to dream up such nonsense.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
This is the article I fanshot'd a couple days ago...
Really a good read, the conversation on TheBook blog is even better.
Longoria’s agent basically said that they knew everything going on and all players know it as well. It would have been a poor business move on the part of the Rays to keep him down.
Just to be clear, I'm not denying these types of things happen.
What I’m saying that in these two examples, it was not the implied exclusive factor for these decisions. If Longoria had stayed down the full two months, this case could be made about him, but I just don’t buy into the opinion that the Rays held Longo down exclusively for monetary gain. The fact that he hadn’t played a full season of ball in at all minor-league levels combined is a valid reason to keep someone down. The fact that he was striking out at Jonny Gomesian-levels is a valid reason to keep someone down. Comparing him with two other 3rd basemen, one who was brought up right away, and one who, in the first 2 months of a season, essentially finished his 162 games in the minor leagues, and showing the the one brought up right away performed well while the other struggled for his first two months up in the majors is a clear thought process.
As for Price, in my opinion, if the rotation was actually pitching well on May 25th, there would have been no way in hell he would have been called up. He was sent down to work on his changeup and get more efficient with his pitches. It appears that at this point, his work in AAA was more indicative of his progress then his process and that he’s effectively done neither. Furthermore, the fact that the Rays haven’t called up Talbot or Hernandez to try to improve the rotation further, and appear to be looking for starting pitching, is actually an indication that right now, Price may actually be the odd-man out in the rotation. They weren’t ‘waiting’ for him to develop, 3/5s the starting rotation was a mess, and his eligibility timing coincided with the team’s attempt to make a change.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
I suppose Friedman could have cleared that up...
Hope this doesn’t get lost since it’s a decent debate…
But it’s a lose – lose situation. He either says that was a factor and is criticized since he’d be the first GM to admit to that type of behavior, or he denies it and everyone figures he’s lying…
I suppose it wasn’t the only factor, but it was definitely the major factor in the Longoria decision. He was ready and the Rays really didn’t have anyone better playing over him. We can argue Aybar, but Aybar himself wasn’t a known quantity at the time. He and Evan were basically in the same position and I’d imagine any team would have started Longoria over Aybar if there were no other considerations.
The Price move is a little more interesting. The Rays did have plenty of reason to keep him down and that was the better move. I do think teams would be more likely to have young starters come up as relievers if there wasn’t a clock to worry about.
I said this below, but, seriously. We gave Longoria a major league deal.
If it was for financial reasons, then those concerns were eventually irrelevant.
That's not true. First of all, he wasn't given a ML deal.
He was given a straight 3 million dollar bonus. He wasn’t added to the 40 man roster until 2008. You are right, they weren’t concerned with money so much as they were with that extra year of team control.
Tools Whore
Friedman didn't decline due to Chass's claims...
He declined because if was the day before the draft. The problem is Chass stated that “Friedman declined comment” in a way that associated guilt to Friedman. The timing couldn’t have been worse and Chass then takes the high horse is saying he won’t delay an article to wait on Friedman. Just an odd situation. He should have just left Friedman out of it.
Really, if you want to make this point, I suggest you do it in your own words via a fanshot instead of using his; you're not going to disassociate the potential point of his article from his condesending tone in it.
Besides, I don’t think he deserves the journalistic integrity of having himself cited as a source right now.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
Not exactly sure what you are referring to...
Here was Vaughn’s quote from the Chass response..
Vaughn said I was unfair and unethical in the way I called Friedman and portrayed the absence of a return call. He noted that I called Friedman the day before the draft. How in the world could I expect to get the general manager the day before the draft, Vaughn asked, suggesting that the timing of the column was bad and that I should have waited to write it another time when it would have been more convenient for Friedman to call back.
Then he went on to
Did he know why I was calling? He did not, and that was another Vaughn complaint. I seldom explain in a message why I am calling, I used to do that, but I found that if the person I was calling didn’t want to be asked about the subject, he didn’t call so I decided it was better not to alert the person in advance why I was calling.
Chass comes off like a jerk because that’s exactly how he acted in his response. The shame of it is that pretty decent article was clouded by inserting Friedman’s name when it was unnecessary and issuing this response to what seemed like a logical move by Vaughn and the Rays.
They explained it in the article...
By keeping Longoria down a couple more weeks they were able to have one more year of team control. This went a long way in negotiations…
I don't know how that would really figure into the negotiations
as far as saving the team money. If it did, then Friedman is brilliant. Sure, it certainly keeps you from being a FA, but if he continues to play the way he’s currently playing, he cost himself tens of millions of dollars. In the 4 years he would be arbitration eligible had he not signed the deal he will make a total of 20 million dollars. It’s not unrealistic that he could have made 20 million dollars more than that in those 4 years. And if you include the 2 other option years, he probably cost himself another 18 million there.
While it gives him financial stability for the rest of his life, this was a terrible deal for him compared to what he could have gotten.
Tools Whore
Where would Erik Chavez be without financial stability?
Scott Rolen looked like a Home Sapiens Superior in his younger days and back injuries derailed that. Injuries happen and come out of nowhere. Millions of dollars in your pocket is better than, “Man I should have held out a little longer.”
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 16, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey, it's his decision.
I’m greedy. It’s why I became a teacher you know. But seriously, you can never fault a guy for guaranteeing himself 17 million dollars and pretty likely 46, but it still could end up costing him 40+ million dollars long term.
Tools Whore
Rolen and Chavez are the reason Evan shouldn't have signed...
Both of them played out their option years and signed an extension near the end of team control. This allowed them to be properly compensated for their prime years and beyond. Chavez signed through is age 33 season, Rolen signed through age 35. Both got a premium price (based on the current market) for years they would likely be in decline.
So they made dick and then got paid in their FA years
I’m putting together some number and will have that in a sec, but check out this:Scott Rolen 3b
8 years/$90M (2003-10)
* 8 years/$90M (2003-10)
o signed extension with St. Louis 9/02
o $5M signing bonus
o 03:$7M, 04:$8M, 05:$11M, 06:$11M, 07:$11M, 08:$11M, 09:$11M, 10:$11M
o additional $4M bonus due Rolen in 2010
o $10M deferred ($2M/year from 2003 to 2007)
o full no-trade clause (waived to allow trade from St. Louis 1/14/08)
o performance bonuses: $50,000 each for Gold Glove & All Star selection
o acquired by Toronto in trade from St. Louis 1/14/08, with Toronto paying St. Louis $1.8M and the Cardinals responsible for $4M bonus due in 2010
* 1 year/$8.6M (2002)
o re-signed by Philadelphia 1 /02 (avoided arbitration)
o rejected Philadelphia’s 10 year/$140M offer 2/02
o acquired by St. Louis in trade 7/02
* 4 years/$10M (1998-2001)
o signed extension with Philadelphia 3/98
* 1 year/$0.175M (1997)
* drafted 1993 (2-46)
* agents: Levinson brothers, ACES
* ML service: 12.060
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 17, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
The bold is mind, he turned down Philly's sick offer and got traded, only to end up signing a lesser deal
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 17, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Using Cot's (and not including option buyouts or bonuses)
I come up with Rolen playing 14 years and making $99,775,000, Chavez playing 10 years and making $68,650,000, and Longo’s 9 year contract at $44,500,000. Longo will be around 31 when this contract is up and still able to get another 5-6 year deal from someone, provided he is healthy. These are not inflation adjust which makes these other guys look even better, but I think this deal was a fair compromise. Could Longo have gotten more? Probably, but at what cost?
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 17, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I was just pointing out the difference...
Longoria signed a favorable deal. I see why he did it, and don’t blame him, but it was definitely favorable to the Rays.
Rolen and Chavez kept their options open by waiting and signing when they had the most leverage. Here is a graph of production by age:
Chavez peaked at 26, Rolen at 29. How do you think their contracts would have been at age 31 compared to signing at 26 or 37?
Rolen had his 2-5 years bought out for 10M. They tried to sign him to a 10
year deal in his last arb year and couldn’t get him to a contract paying him an AVERAGE of $14M. I bet at this point he wishes he had taken that deal. From his perspective, he lost 2 years on his deal and $50M. The Phillies were forced to trade him for:
The Phillies get third baseman Placido Polanco, pitcher Bud Smith and reliever Mike Timlin for the three-time Gold Glove winner, minor league pitcher Doug Nickle and cash.Source
Talk about a lose-lose if I ever saw one.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 17, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn't he have a problem with the Phillies?
At the time I thought there was some issue about them not being competitive or something. I could be wrong. I just thought there was something other than money.
I don't remember, but I would hope so, the thing is, he was offered that deal
in 2002. 2001 is when A-Rod and Jeter and Manny and a host of other guys were getting crazy deals. I would hope it wasn’t about money, but greed is a MFer.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 17, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
The trade to St. Louis ultimately happened because he wanted to leave Philly
I don’t know if he didn’t sign that deal for the same reason. He was getting booed constantly in Philly every time he didn’t get a hit, despite being their best player (sounds somewhat familiar). I’m not sure why the fans started booing him, after all it is Philly, but there were rumors that management was encouraging it since he didn’t resign and wasn’t going to.
by nolesblogger on Jun 17, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
This article seems to back up what I remembered...
Sounds like he left for the right reasons (in his mind). And that’s also the type of leverage a player can have when his contract is coming up and he’s in his prime. Glad the Rays won’t have to deal with that.
I so badly want to see the team win a series on the road.
Fun facts about this series:
The Rays have won 2 road series all year. Yes, seriously (2 game sweep of the Yankees May 6th, 7th; 2 out of 3 from the Fish May 22nd – 24th). Technically, the 2 out of 3 game series at the beginning of the season against Boston was a 4 game series; until game 1 is played, we won’t know if they won that one.
Prior to their hot streak, the Rockies were 9-14 at home. Even at 12-14, their home record is still 2nd worst in the league behind the Nationals.
The Rockies 11 game streak includes back-to-back-to-back sweeps of St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Seattle. Taking the Colorado series out of their perspective schedules, these teams combined are 33-27 in their last 20 collective games (St. Louis: 11-9, Milwaukee: 10-10, Seattle: 12-8).
Colorado has not given up more then 4 runs in any game during their winning streak, and has held their opponent to 2 runs or less 6 times.
In the month of June, Tampa Bay has scored 4 runs or less in 5 games, and are 2-3 in those games. They are 7-0 in games they’ve scored more then 4 runs in.
During their 11 game winning streak, the Rockies have only scored 4 or fewer runs twice, and have scored a total of 73 runs during that span.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
The opening series against Boston was only a 3 game series
The first game was rained out and made up the next day. It is pretty common for an off day to be schedule the day after opening day so that teams can still have opening day ceremonies if the game is rained out , like this case.
by nolesblogger on Jun 16, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah, that's right. I don't know what I was thinking there.
Ok, so they won 3 road series all year. But that’s really not impressive either.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
va a L, can Pat get RF? or will they just go with Kapler?
Personally, I would do neither, heres how I would go
CF Upton R
LF Crawford L
3B Longoria R
1B Pena L
RF Zobrist S
SS Bartlett (YES!!!!) R
2B Aybar S
C Navarro S
and of course SP Garza R
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Jeff Niemann 5. Andy Sonnanstine...... Coming Soon: Wade Davis......Scott Kazmir?
Niemann*
wow my bad
Rotation: 1. James Shields 2. Matt Garza 3. David Price 4. Jeff Niemann 5. Andy Sonnanstine...... Coming Soon: Wade Davis......Scott Kazmir?
Since we have the Rockies on tap
figured this might be a good time to ask, in stats like FIP, HR/9 (pitching and htiting) and other elevation affected stats accounted for. Are the numbers jsut flat reported or is there some sort of manipulation to account for park specific fluctuations?
Just an FYI
Carlos Gonzalez has been getting most of the starts in LF since his callup, especially against RHP. Spilborghs and Smith have been relegated to the bench. Also, Ian Stewart has taken over for Garrett Atkins at third. He had a day off Sunday for the first time since before the streak started and that was due to Atkin’s career history off Vargas. Stewart will play third at least 2 of the games.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 16, 2009 4:08 PM EDT reply actions
Thanks, I usually scope the last 5-10 gamelogs and try to make the lineups at least somewhat accurate.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 16, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a challenge
I’m writing the Rays preview, and with so many moving parts and the DH issue, it’s not easy to speculate, even for you I’m sure.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 16, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I like this username
Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 16, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Thought I'd drop in the opposing view for your comments
Here’s Purple Row’s series preview
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 16, 2009 6:16 PM EDT reply actions
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