Carl Crawford vs. Roberto Clemente Revisited : A look at Crawford & Clemente at age 27

by Tommy Rancel on Jun 17, 2009 3:00 PM EDT Comment 24 comments

If you remember way back when to the DRaysBay season preview, you may recall a piece I wrote about Carl Crawford and the statistically similarities he shared with Roberto Clemente. I found that through age 26, Crawford was dangerously close to Clemente in a few key categories. Here were the numbers:

Age 26	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	2B	3B	ISO
Crawford	0.293	0.33	0.435	70	157	84	0.141
Clemente	0.298	0.331	0.431	65	162	65	0.131

I also discovered that from age 27-37, Clemente experienced a power surge, and averaged a .502 slg over his final 11 seasons. While CC hasn't had a home run breakout, his slugging percentage is 40 points higher than it was in 2008. After just six extra base hits in April, CC's showed some serious power in May in which he slugged .512 with 13 XBH. Crawford has just three extra base hits in the month of June, but two of them have been home runs.

Once again, I decided to compare the two players through the first 289 plate appearances during the year in which they were classified as 27. Not surprisingly, the comparison is holding very strong. In fact, their OPS is within two points of each other. They are also within two home runs, two doubles and one triple of each other. Here is the visual.

Age 27	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	2B	3B
Crawford	0.314	0.377	0.441	0.818	5	12	3
Clemente	0.316	0.358	0.462	0.820	7	10	4

The .454 slugging % Clemente posted in 1962 would end up as the lowest of his final 11 seasons. As we move closer to July, we will undoubtedly hear Crawford's name mentioned in trade rumors. After looking at this comparison, it puts in perspective (for me at least) the type of player we are dealing with in Crawford. I'm not saying Crawford is next Clemente. Defensively, Clemente's arm was legendary, but CC's speed makes him very special not only defensively, but on the basepaths. Hopefully, the Rays continue their winning ways, and any thoughts of trading Crawford are replaced by thoughts of another playoff push with him and a possible extension.

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Hmmmm

Well, this would seem to make it a lot harder to say goodbye. What is he worth, then, going forward?

by rglass44 on Jun 17, 2009 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 17, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I heard Huston Street is unpacking his locker.

by Suttree on Jun 17, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If his new found affinity for plate discipline is a very real improvement, then we've got ourselves a great player.

by Suttree on Jun 17, 2009 3:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope so.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 17, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he should definitely

avoid flying to Nicaragua

by Art Deco on Jun 17, 2009 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Too soon.

by Suttree on Jun 17, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's a great comparison...

If only he had his throwing arm

by tallyray on Jun 17, 2009 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What he lacks in arm, he makes up in speed

Clemente’s career high in steals was 12. CC got half of that in a game.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Jun 17, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which is surprising...

I always thought he was faster but never bothered to look…

by tallyray on Jun 17, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Baseball Reference....

Lists Roberto Clemente as the #1 Comp though age 26. Also on the list are Johnny Damon, Tim Raines, and Rickey Henderson.

by td32 on Jun 17, 2009 3:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

All those guys aged well.

I mean, other than Robert Clemente, who’s dead.

by Suttree on Jun 17, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It would have been nice if Keyboard Cat played him off.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 17, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Clemente aged very well...

He never had an OPS+ under 135 once he hit 28.

by tallyray on Jun 17, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If only he had the eye of Raines or Henderson.

by RATW on Jun 17, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is

That so much of Crawfords game is built on his speed (offensively and defensively), when his legs/knees start to go he is going to lose a ton of value. You did not have to worry about this as much with Clemente because speed wasnt his #1 asset. That being said, maybe Carl’s legs hold up for ~8 mor years and he is one of the best players of our generation. And obviously you can cite injury concerns for any player, and when predicting future production the phrase “barring injury” is always thrown around, but I think its a different case with Crawford just because of how much you would really lose if he lost speed.

by BJ the Bossman on Jun 17, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

As long as this team is playing baseball on artificial turf, I am ultimately not in favor or resigning him after his current deal expires, unless it's a short deal.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 17, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

4 years with a team option would work or me.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Jun 17, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 17, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tim Raines and Henderson are similar...

Even Damon to a certain extent.

I don’t think speed disappears as quickly as it seems… I know Bill James did a study in 1987 that basically said players with speed seem to hold there skills longer… Crawford is a productive player without power and would be a very good player if the power developed.

I don’t know what I think they should do with Carl. I’ve never been a big fan but he’s won me over a little this year. He’s still very young and has made some strides in areas that make me think he can continue to develop. It’d be nice to have him a couple more years.

by tallyray on Jun 17, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Numbers lie.

Crawford is a very good player, but certainly not in Clemente’s class yet (or maybe ever). Crawford has yet to be considered for team MVP, much less the league MVP. By the time Clemente was 27 he had already garnered top 10 MVP votes and a Gold Glove. And was rapidly rising to his perch as the best defensive right fielder in all of baseball (with a rocket arm). Compare that to Crawford, who has yet to win a GG and whose best MVP finish is 26th. Clemente also had the added handicap of playing in cavernous Forbes Field, which was only about 360 down the line in left, with a high ivy-covered wall.

At the dawn of the expansion era and the height of the influx of players of color, I’d certainly say that the level of competition in the early 60s was somewhat higher than it is it today’s league, filled with juicers and Quadruple-A all stars. Crawford is neither of those things, but certainly not in the discussion of the top 20 players in the league.

by BizR on Jun 17, 2009 6:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs