Lance Cormier Thrives As Rays Low Leverage Ace
Earlier, R.J. praised Joe Maddon for using J.P. Howell correctly. Far too often we point out a manager's flaws when he mismanages a game or a bullpen, so it's only fitting to give him credit when he uses his assets correctly. I want to take this time to point out how well Joe Maddon has used Lance Cormier. It's no secret that Cormier is a personal favorite of mine. I pegged him back in December as a bullpen sleeper and so far he has turned out to be even better than I imagined.
Over the Rays first 35 games, Cormier appeared in over 1/3 of them (13) and pitched 26 innings. I joked with many that Cormier was the Rays defacto sixth starter as he had almost as many innings pitch as Jeff Niemann (33.2) and Andy Sonnanstine (34.2) at the time. Since May 13th, Niemann and Sonnanstine have pitched deeper into games and the rest of the bullpen has picked up the pace.
In the past month, Cormier has appeared in just seven games and thrown 13.1 innings. Despite the long layoffs in between appearances, Cormier has maintained his effectiveness. Over those seven appearances opponents are hitting just .130/.216/.196/.411. He has also picked up his strikeout numbers averaging 7.55 K's per nine, while walking 3.43 per nine, a full walk lower than his career total. Overall, he's walking 2.50 per nine; well below his career norm of 4.41.
Even though his appearances have become more sporadic as of late, the heavy use of his right arm early on has in the top six of innings pitched amongst relief pitchers.
|
|
G |
IP |
|
21 |
43.2 |
|
|
RamonTroncoso |
30 |
43 |
|
31 |
42 |
|
|
22 |
41.2 |
|
|
RonaldBelisario |
35 |
40.1 |
|
Lance Cormier |
20 |
39.2 |
|
31 |
39 |
|
|
26 |
39 |
|
|
Chad Durban |
33 |
37 |
|
23 |
35.2 |
|
|
21 |
35 |
Not only has he thrown a bunch of innings, but he's thrown a bunch of effective ones. Sure, most of them have come in mop-up roles, but as we saw with Jason Hammel last year, that role is still important. Amongst relievers with 35+ innings, Cormier has the lowest ERA.
|
|
G |
ERA |
|
Lance Cormier |
20 |
2.04 |
|
35 |
2.23 |
|
|
RamonTroncoso |
30 |
2.3 |
|
Chris Sampson |
31 |
2.31 |
|
Andrew Bailey |
31 |
2.36 |
|
Seth McClung |
26 |
3 |
|
D.J. Carrasco |
22 |
3.02 |
|
Danys Baez |
23 |
3.03 |
|
JasonJennings |
21 |
3.34 |
|
Chad Durban |
33 |
3.89 |
|
Brian Bass |
21 |
3.92 |
By now you should know ERA is basically useless when evaluating an individual pitchers performance so let's see where Cormier ranks by FIP.
|
|
G |
FIP |
|
D.J. Carrasco |
22 |
2.83 |
|
Andrew Bailey |
31 |
2.85 |
|
Lance Cormier |
20 |
3.22 |
|
Chris Sampson |
31 |
3.32 |
|
Ronald Belisario |
35 |
3.37 |
|
RamonTroncoso |
30 |
3.51 |
|
Danys Baez |
23 |
4.22 |
|
JasonJennings |
21 |
4.53 |
|
Seth McClung |
26 |
4.86 |
|
Brian Bass |
21 |
5.29 |
|
Chad Durban |
33 |
5.45 |
As you can see while Cormier hasn't been 2.04 ERA good, he's still in the top three of all relief pitchers with 35+ innings. Cormier's pLI is just 0.53 which makes him, not Dan Wheeler, the king of low leverage situations. Once again, Joe Maddon knows what type of pitcher he has in Cormier, and like J.P. Howell, he is using him in the situations that he'll thrive in. Does Joe Maddon manage the bullpen perfectly? No, but neither does any major league manager. However, in these two cases he has shown the ability to use guys in the situations in which they should be most effective and that's all you can ask.
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Right, J.P. was highly effective in low leverage last year too
No need to shake things up now though.
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 19, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Why though?
Our entire philosophy has been roles do not matter. What makes you believe that any of the relievers will perform better or worse if their roles were reassigned for the proper leverage?
Personally I think the most likely scenario would the pitchers would keep on pitching exactly they way their talents say they should pitch. They would just be pitching in the right leverage given the pecking order.
I do remember your piece about Wheeler and high and low leverage
Definitely interesting to know but I don’t think in the long term his performance will differ based on leverage. Good info on what has happened in the past, but not really useful for predicting the future. For example Wheeler used to be dominant as a set up man for the Astros but then wet the bed as a closer.
Sky Kalkman debunked Wheeler
HIs IBB made a huge difference. Once you adjust his high and low-med were more in line. Balfour on the other hand is night and day.
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 19, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
This is exactly my point
The fact that Cormier is kicking butt shows that Maddon is in fact using him poorly. You should put your best performing relievers in the highest leverage situations. Is there any evidence whatsoever that Cormier would perform worse in high leverage?
On the other hand what are peoples thoughts for Cormier in fantasy leagues?
In deep enough leagues that all closers are obviously taken and a good amount of handcuffs. It is a points league that is a bit biased towards IP also…
I’m thinking about picking him up.
I picked him up for now.
But he hasn’t come into a game lately so he is only taking up roster space. I have Nick Blackburn on waivers so I have Cormier through the weekend if my waiver claim goes through. If you have a deep league and all closers are taken and no good setup men, I would take a mop-guy like Cormier that can give you 3-4 innings of work.
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
by Gone Phishing on Jun 19, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Any league where you can adjust your lineup daily
I try to load up on high K/9-low ERA relievers regardless of role. They may vulture some saves, but they pitch a few times a week and rack up K’s while not getting hit too hard (ex. Affeldt, Howell, Thornton, etc…)
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
High Leverage
There are some distinguishing characteristics that can separate a pitcher in the highest of leverage situations (think 1 run or tie game). What changes? The appearance of small ball. What factors?
High K ratio
Tough to steal on
Ground Ball Inducer
Low Walks
Cormier’s K/9 is 4.54. Not good.
He has 2 steals allowed in 2 attempts this. 25 for 34 for his career.
Ground Ball 53.5%, over 50% for career. Excellent
Low Walks 2.5/9 this year. 4.4/career. This season good, career bad
These four things become far more important when 1 run is at critical mass.
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Cormier's got a solid groundball rate, though.
If Bradford can get away with it, why couldn’t he? I’m not expecting him to be another JP, but it’d be nice to see him used in games where we don’t need him to eat innings.
His arm is the most stretched though
Would need someone else ready to throw 40+ pitches when called upon. It can be done, but I don’t think its as simple as flipping a switch. More than any other bullpen role, long relief requires training. The Rays have also had numerous 5 inning Sonny, Price, Niemann outings where they left with a lead. Thats a great place for Cormier. Hes not only used in blowouts jsut earlier in games.
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I like how Mad Dog used him a ton early to give him a chance to prove himself and has coasted a little lately
to keep him alive for the stretch run, much like JP last year.
Rays Win!

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