A Look at Pitch Type & Value
For a little while now I have wanted to take a look at the relationship between pitch type and value (as tracked by Fangraphs). Following the KISS method I wanted to see what it would look like when you compared each pitcher's pitch type % multiplied by their corresponding pitch value. One would think that a good pitcher would use his best pitch the most and each lesser pitch less. After all, what is the value of having a great pitch if you never use it. I looked at every pitcher with at least 10 IP this year (Sorry Randy Choate) and then broke this out by including anyone that has thrown an inning as a starter on the starter side and doing the same for relievers. As you can imagine there is some overlap, but I wanted to be as indiscriminate as possible. Here are your Rays.
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There ended up being 206 pitchers that have thrown an inning as a starter with Chris Carpenter (2.68) being the best and Brandon Backe (-3.87) being the worst. You can Download the file by Pitcher Effectiveness
The averages came out to be
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As you can see Garza, Shields, and Niemann have had above-average "stuff" so far this year with Price not too far behind. Sonny has been quite a bit below the average and bad Kaz has reared his ugly head for most of the season.
I think this passes the smell test when you see names like Carpenter, Haren, Greinke, Weaver, Halladay, Johnson, Lincecum and Vazquez in the top 10 and names like Backe, Wang, Benson, Olsen, and Matsuzaka in the bottom 10.
In the next installment, I will look at the relievers, hope that Choate gets 3 outs tonight.
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75 comments
Comments
edwin jacksons 98 mph heater through 8 is always effective
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Imagine if we didn't throw dukes away.
We would have a solid right handed bat in RF, and Edwin in the starting rotation still. It pretty much cost us the WS last year, and playoffs this year. That’s what throwing one player out the door did to this team.
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We could really use that 0.0 WAR he's put up this year
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait, what?
You’re blaming Gabe Gross/Erik Hinske for our losing the world series? And yet Edwin jackson surrending a home run to Joe Blanton goes exonerated?
by Suttree on Jun 19, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
Did you watch Gabe Gross flounder all WS?
Plus dukes can hit left handers.
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still pretty angry at the way dukes was treated at the trop.
Those people are animals.
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he was in the NFL like he should be he would be a deity
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't clap or boo for him, but the people calling him wifebeaters who cheer for Aybar are retarded.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That stadium still cheers for Huff, who personally bad mouthed the bay area and it's fans.
Dukes didnt say a word about the fans.
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I sat two rows from the Nationals dugout
and the guy in front of me instructed his 8 year old grandson to yell “go back to jail” everytime dukes walked out or in the dugout.
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fail
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
by Gone Phishing on Jun 19, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you have a higher level of expectations for this area's fanbase than I do.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or humanity
geography is irrelevant
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 19, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have been living in Seattle for to long I guess.
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope Seattle embraces B.J. when he signs there in a few years.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vintage Griffey Jr. would get booed here for "not running hard".
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the left right left right people were screaming at dukes
They were viably angry at him.The guy was shaking he was so mad. And chanted wife beater.
Also, cheered for aybar.
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Someone said get under his skin.
You know what gets under Josh Hamilton’s skin? Needles.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You were really surprised that a group of people, a crowd, would indulge in some
moral outrage at a person/object/idea/office/whatever that would definitely not seek reproach?
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 19, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah,
I also expected the usher to now allow people down the aisles when a batter was in the box, but I forgot florida is still somewhat 3rd world.
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was foolish.
Also, every park allows people to walk the aisles at any time. NYS, Citi, Miller, Trop, Wrigley. Those are the ones I’ve been to, and they all allow it.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 19, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LoL
There isn’t a park on the west coast that allows that. Including venders. If there is a batter in the box, you can’t go down the aisles, period.
Except the upper decks, no one cares about it there.
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Were you upper deck or box seats?
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're talking to me
And it varied. I sat everywhere in Miller Park, upper deck at Wrigley, RF bleachers at Citi, lower bowl and second deck at NYS, and everywhere at the Trop.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 19, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah all the places ive been that dont allow you to walk
down the aisles when a batter is in the box, only applied to box seats.
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What do you mean by box? Skybox? The Whitney Bank Club? Or the lower bowl?
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 19, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lower bowl not including the outfield seats.
by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh. I've sat there in NYS, Miller, and the Trop
Nobody said anything about people moving down the aisles.
So long, Sweet Lime!
by PlayOnWords on Jun 19, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well the west coast is such a more sophisticated place to live
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty sure Huff gets booed
at least by the people I am around.
Swav or Die
For the lulz
by SRQman on Jun 19, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind this is the defensive dependent version of the weights.
FG is keeping track of the defensive independent version.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for pointing that out
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure if the plan is to publish them soon or what.
We have a very special pitching metric coming soon though.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defense only effects the value
Have they seen large swings in their linear weights when they convert to defense independent?
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sonnanstine has been awful
If I’m reading this correctly, he does not have a single above average pitch.
by RaysTheRoof on Jun 19, 2009 3:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind it combines both sides usage x effectiveness
but yeah
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One thing I'd like to mention
As a pitcher throws more of a certain type of pitch the effectiveness of that pitch will go down on a per pitch basis.
As a crude example if a pitcher with two equal pitches (FB,CH) threw 99FB and 1CH then that change is going to be off the charts good given the surprise factor. As the number of changes increases the value of each change will decrease as the hitter sees it more.
by matthan on Jun 19, 2009 3:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Right
I wanted to impress that this is a first look hence the KISS method. As this data is only a couple of weeks old we have to walk before we can run
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, I would think a lot of that would normalize over the course of the season
Like I said, most of the names are not surprising where they are located.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm thinking that for many pitches it would take longer than a full season to normalize
yes, I understand course of a seaosn could be taken as a figure of speech as it was probably intended, just wanted to throw that out there
by Navi's_Navy on Jun 19, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for elaborating
Of course it will, but you also won’t see drastic changes among the guys that have amassed a ton of pitches so far.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For sure
I’ve jsut seen some people get the wrong impression using pitch values on other boards. They see a pitcher having a higher value with one pitch than another and simply say they should throw more of one and less of another. It obviously isn’t that simple.
The key is to maximize TOTAL pitch value. So in order to figure out what the best allocation of pitches it we would have to somehow find how sensitive the values are for each pitch and at each level.
by matthan on Jun 19, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree on Total pitch value
I also think the data shows that indirectly. Every pitcher in the big leagues is constantly adjusting and going to go with what gives him the greatest chance at success. Could Balfour have thrown more sliders last year? Of course, but the effectiveness of his FB made it a moot point. He knew that he could get by with just that even if the slider might have had a high “Pitch Value”.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Incidentally here is what I have for his multiplied values for last year
FB=2.30989
SL=-0.0957
CB=-0.07544
CH=-0.08658
Total=2.05217
This year I have him sitting at .05 total
I’m going to do this exercise for last year and see how it looks
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's 2008
Starters 138 Qualifiers, average=0.06, IP>88
Garza 29th 0.59
Shields 35th 0.51
Kazmir 53rd 0.28
Sonnanstine 80th 0.05 positive slider and a real good cutter
Jackson 85th -0.01
Relievers
265 qualifiers, average=0.26, 19<relief IP<88
Balfour 7th 2.05
Howell 31st 1.29
Wheeler 32nd 1.28
Miller 91st 0.67
Reyes 130th 0.29
Percival 139th 0.19
Hammel 199th -0.30
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats what I was thinking on Edwin
Last I checked his fastball usage was way down and slider up. Slider’s weight went down and fastball up.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jun 19, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here is a google doc that has starters on one side and relievers on the other
I have included a number of key stats so feel free to either play with the file up top or copy and paste this data into a workbook if you want to reach your own conclusions.
The google book also shows the calculations next to the raw variables making it easier to see how the calcs came out.
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like how after game 1 of the Rockies series Longo, Los, and Zobie
had more homers than 5 teams
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
HAPPY QUALIFICATION DAY!!
I’m sure Tommy must be putting together the mother of all Zobrist posts. Right Tommy?
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 19, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
can anyone confirm or when Barty will qualify?
by walkoffwalk on Jun 19, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
3.1 PA/per team game
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by FreeZorilla on Jun 19, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
then he would need 211...he's at 193.
by walkoffwalk on Jun 19, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so i guess next saturday he will qualify if he gets 5 pa per game?
fri 198 / 214
sat 203 / 217
sun 208 / 220
mon 213 / 223
tue 218 / 226
wed 223 / 229
thur 228 / 232
fri 233 / 235
sat 238 / 238
by walkoffwalk on Jun 19, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This has been a real Stat Geek Friday
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jun 19, 2009 3:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I still owe Zobie 5,000 words after getting that hit in the 9th last night.
tomorrow maybe
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sleepless night of Anticipation for me
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jun 19, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow......just wow
Swav or Die
For the lulz
by SRQman on Jun 19, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This has topped my infatuation with B.J. Upton.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tomorrow
I will cover everything I can, it will be super boring
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If she can cover me
she ain’t on me
Rays Win!
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
more OT, sorry...but man...just noticed Navi has a bb/k of 4/28.
by walkoffwalk on Jun 19, 2009 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
One walk was largely to load the bases w/ 2 outs w Garza on deck.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jun 19, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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