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A Look at Pitch Type & Value

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More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

For a little while now I have wanted to take a look at the relationship between pitch type and value (as tracked by Fangraphs).  Following the KISS method I wanted to see what it would look like when you compared each pitcher's pitch type % multiplied by their corresponding pitch value.  One would think that a good pitcher would use his best pitch the most and each lesser pitch less.  After all, what is the value of having a great pitch if you never use it. I looked at every pitcher with at least 10 IP this year (Sorry Randy Choate) and then broke this out by including anyone that has thrown an inning as a starter on the starter side and doing the same for relievers.  As you can imagine there is some overlap, but I wanted to be as indiscriminate as possible.  Here are your Rays.

Rank Name Team  FB   SL   CT   CB   CH   SF   KN   Total 
28 Matt Garza Rays     0.17     0.58          -       0.16   (0.13)          -            -       0.77
80 James Shields Rays   (0.25)     0.04   (0.07)   (0.06)     0.44          -            -       0.09
102 Jeff Niemann Rays     0.15   (0.16)          -     (0.15)   (0.07)     0.04          -     (0.19)
127 David Price Rays     0.03   (0.38)          -     (0.03)     0.00          -            -     (0.37)
167 Andy Sonnanstine Rays   (0.34)   (0.32)   (0.03)   (0.33)   (0.01)          -            -     (1.03)
183 Scott Kazmir Rays   (1.09)   (0.58)          -            -       0.18          -            -     (1.49)

 

Star-divide

There ended up being 206 pitchers that have thrown an inning as a starter with Chris Carpenter (2.68) being the best and Brandon Backe (-3.87) being the worst.  You can Download the file by Pitcher Effectiveness
The averages came out to be
Rank Name Team  FB   SL   CT   CB   CH   SF   KN   Total 
Avg Average Average     (0.29)        0.08     0.05      (0.01)   (0.01)     0.02   (0.11)   (0.23)

 

As you can see Garza, Shields, and Niemann have had above-average "stuff" so far this year with Price not too far behind.  Sonny has been quite a bit below the average and bad Kaz has reared his ugly head for most of the season. 

I think this passes the smell test when you see names like Carpenter, Haren, Greinke, Weaver, Halladay, Johnson, Lincecum and Vazquez in the top 10 and names like Backe, Wang, Benson, Olsen, and Matsuzaka in the bottom 10.  

In the next installment, I will look at the relievers, hope that Choate gets 3 outs tonight.

0 recs  |  Comment 75 comments

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Imagine if we didn't throw dukes away.

We would have a solid right handed bat in RF, and Edwin in the starting rotation still. It pretty much cost us the WS last year, and playoffs this year. That’s what throwing one player out the door did to this team.

by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait, what?

You’re blaming Gabe Gross/Erik Hinske for our losing the world series? And yet Edwin jackson surrending a home run to Joe Blanton goes exonerated?

by Suttree on Jun 19, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

Did you watch Gabe Gross flounder all WS?

Plus dukes can hit left handers.

by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I sat two rows from the Nationals dugout

and the guy in front of me instructed his 8 year old grandson to yell “go back to jail” everytime dukes walked out or in the dugout.

by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

fail

"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey

by Gone Phishing on Jun 19, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

or humanity

geography is irrelevant

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 19, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the left right left right people were screaming at dukes

They were viably angry at him.The guy was shaking he was so mad. And chanted wife beater.

Also, cheered for aybar.

by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Someone said get under his skin.

You know what gets under Josh Hamilton’s skin? Needles.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You were really surprised that a group of people, a crowd, would indulge in some

moral outrage at a person/object/idea/office/whatever that would definitely not seek reproach?

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 19, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah,

I also expected the usher to now allow people down the aisles when a batter was in the box, but I forgot florida is still somewhat 3rd world.

by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was foolish.

Also, every park allows people to walk the aisles at any time. NYS, Citi, Miller, Trop, Wrigley. Those are the ones I’ve been to, and they all allow it.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 19, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LoL

There isn’t a park on the west coast that allows that. Including venders. If there is a batter in the box, you can’t go down the aisles, period.

Except the upper decks, no one cares about it there.

by putupyourDUKES on Jun 19, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're talking to me

And it varied. I sat everywhere in Miller Park, upper deck at Wrigley, RF bleachers at Citi, lower bowl and second deck at NYS, and everywhere at the Trop.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 19, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty sure Huff gets booed

at least by the people I am around.

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jun 19, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sonnanstine has been awful

If I’m reading this correctly, he does not have a single above average pitch.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 19, 2009 3:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

One thing I'd like to mention

As a pitcher throws more of a certain type of pitch the effectiveness of that pitch will go down on a per pitch basis.

As a crude example if a pitcher with two equal pitches (FB,CH) threw 99FB and 1CH then that change is going to be off the charts good given the surprise factor. As the number of changes increases the value of each change will decrease as the hitter sees it more.

by matthan on Jun 19, 2009 3:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Right

I wanted to impress that this is a first look hence the KISS method. As this data is only a couple of weeks old we have to walk before we can run

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, I would think a lot of that would normalize over the course of the season

Like I said, most of the names are not surprising where they are located.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm thinking that for many pitches it would take longer than a full season to normalize

yes, I understand course of a seaosn could be taken as a figure of speech as it was probably intended, just wanted to throw that out there

by Navi's_Navy on Jun 19, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for elaborating

Of course it will, but you also won’t see drastic changes among the guys that have amassed a ton of pitches so far.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For sure

I’ve jsut seen some people get the wrong impression using pitch values on other boards. They see a pitcher having a higher value with one pitch than another and simply say they should throw more of one and less of another. It obviously isn’t that simple.

The key is to maximize TOTAL pitch value. So in order to figure out what the best allocation of pitches it we would have to somehow find how sensitive the values are for each pitch and at each level.

by matthan on Jun 19, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree on Total pitch value

I also think the data shows that indirectly. Every pitcher in the big leagues is constantly adjusting and going to go with what gives him the greatest chance at success. Could Balfour have thrown more sliders last year? Of course, but the effectiveness of his FB made it a moot point. He knew that he could get by with just that even if the slider might have had a high “Pitch Value”.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Incidentally here is what I have for his multiplied values for last year

FB=2.30989
SL=-0.0957
CB=-0.07544
CH=-0.08658
Total=2.05217

This year I have him sitting at .05 total

I’m going to do this exercise for last year and see how it looks

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's 2008

Starters 138 Qualifiers, average=0.06, IP>88
Garza 29th 0.59
Shields 35th 0.51
Kazmir 53rd 0.28
Sonnanstine 80th 0.05 positive slider and a real good cutter
Jackson 85th -0.01

Relievers
265 qualifiers, average=0.26, 19<relief IP<88
Balfour 7th 2.05
Howell 31st 1.29
Wheeler 32nd 1.28
Miller 91st 0.67
Reyes 130th 0.29
Percival 139th 0.19
Hammel 199th -0.30

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's the link, I found the results pretty interesting

As someone pointed out, the more IP the more credibility in the numbers.

LINK

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats what I was thinking on Edwin

Last I checked his fastball usage was way down and slider up. Slider’s weight went down and fastball up.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jun 19, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here is a google doc that has starters on one side and relievers on the other

LINK

I have included a number of key stats so feel free to either play with the file up top or copy and paste this data into a workbook if you want to reach your own conclusions.

The google book also shows the calculations next to the raw variables making it easier to see how the calcs came out.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2009 3:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

HAPPY QUALIFICATION DAY!!

I’m sure Tommy must be putting together the mother of all Zobrist posts. Right Tommy?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jun 19, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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