Sonny Side Down
by FreeZorilla on Jun 2, 2009 3:37 PM EDT
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Today’s scapegoat of the day lined up for public execution is Andy Sonnanstine. Somehow we are still debating whether or not the Rays should have traded Sonnanstine rather than Edwin Jackson, forgetting any differences in their salary situations or even the minor fact about what compensation could be had for each. Regardless, Sonny would love to forget the first half of the season. Let’s take a look at some #’s and see where some blame may lay and where there may be just be some incredibly bad luck. As we always seem to, let’s start with the FIP Components:
|
Season |
BB/9 |
K/BB |
HR/9 |
FIP |
|
2007 |
1.79 |
3.73 |
1.24 |
4.26 |
|
2008 |
1.72 |
3.35 |
0.98 |
3.91 |
|
2009 |
2.92 |
1.81 |
1.28 |
4.86 |
Not good. The walks are up over an entire walk. The K/BB has declined exponentially year over year and the Home Runs have seen a big jump. The walks and home runs are very bad and not up for discussion, though we will try to look at what has caused the spikes. Let’s look at FIP’s other component, the strikeout:
|
Season |
K/9 |
K% |
kS% |
SwStr% |
F-Strike% |
|
2007 |
6.68 |
17.5% |
13.2% |
9.2% |
60.8% |
|
2008 |
5.77 |
15.1% |
10.8% |
7.3% |
64.0% |
|
2009 |
5.29 |
12.7% |
7.9% |
6.7% |
60.7% |
Like with Scott Kazmir, the strikeout decline is worse than the K/9 indicates. The K/9 fell almost a full strikeout from 2008 to 2009 while the % of batters striking out fell 2.4%. The K/9 has only fallen about a half a strikeout this year, but the K% dropped 2.4% again. Sonny is having a hard time making people miss. Only 7.9% of plate appearances are resulting in swinging strikeouts while his swinging strike % has fallen to 6.7%. Sonny is also not getting ahead of batters as he did when he was grooving in 2008. His first strike % has dropped over 3%.
Now let’s look at batted ball data:
|
Season |
LD% |
GB% |
FB% |
IFFB% |
HR/FB |
BABIP |
|
2007 |
18.0% |
38.9% |
43.0% |
8.4% |
0.101 |
0.329 |
|
2008 |
17.0% |
42.1% |
40.9% |
13.3% |
0.08 |
0.312 |
|
2009 |
21.3% |
42.7% |
36.0% |
6.3% |
0.109 |
0.371 |
Its clear there’s a jump in HR/FB and a decline in IFFB%, both not good. However a .371 BABIP is absurd. Below is a table comparing Sonny’s BABIP per batted ball type to the league average. Remember pitchers may have some influence on batted ball type, but do not typically deviate too far from the mean per type.
|
|
SonnyBABIP |
League BABIP |
|
GB |
0.299 |
0.238 |
|
FB |
0.167 |
0.145 |
|
LD |
0.825 |
0.724 |
In each category Sonny has had some hard luck. If we apply his batted ball type %’s with the expected league BABIP per type we would get an expected BABIP of .308. This should even be adjusted further downward when accounting for the Ray’s top ranked defense. This is a far cry from his current BABIP of .371.
Lastly, let’s look at his pitch selection. I’ve never been a pitcher so this is an area I’d love to see people with more knowledge interject upon. On the table below you will see Sonny’s % of pitch use with the accompanying linear weight/100 pitches for that season. Also the average career velocity for the pitch is included in the fourth row:
|
Season |
FB |
SL |
CT |
CB |
CH |
|
2007 |
51.4% 0.58 |
23.9% -0.36 |
6.3% -3.17 |
8.5% 1.18 |
9.8% -3.94 |
|
2008 |
32.7% -1.05 |
21.8% 0.14 |
30.2% 1.62 |
11% -0.05 |
4.2% -2.97 |
|
2009 |
22.7% -2.61 |
13.8% -4.77 |
46.7% -0.13 |
14.4% -1.37 |
2.4% -0.6 |
|
MPH |
87 |
77.4 |
86.8 |
73.9 |
81.6 |
This is what jumps out to me. Obviously, none of his pitches are working above average this year. In 2007, the fastball and curveball were above average. In 2008, it was the slider and cutter. Where pitch use is concerned, his fastball continues the trend of being used less, now down to 22.7% from 51.4% where the cutter has gone from 6.3% to 46.7% in the same period. Last year when Sonny was at his best, he did not throw any of his five pitches more than 32.7% of the time.
He also has 4 different speeds, the cutter and fastball (87), the changeup (82), the slider(77), and the curveball 74%. He is throwing 87 MPH on 69.4% of his pitches. It has to be a lot less guesswork on the hitters. The slider and changeup are being used dramatically less this year. Some of this may have to do with falling behind in the count.
With some simple pitch recipe tweaking is it possible Sonny could see improved results? Who is behind the cutter love? Is it simply trying too much of a good thing from 2008? Whatever happens, the one thing that should be certain is the BABIP falling. I remain hopeful Sonny can right the ship going forward.
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Comments
The first time he craps all over himself this year, expect to see me wearing a star of David t-shirt dancing on his corpse.
And the only reason I would do this is because I’m sick of the Edwin argument. I want to see him fail so it will go away.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
This is how I feel.
I had no ill will towards Edwin, but now I want him to fail miserably. I want him to get shelled in the first inning – home runs and walks, 1 through 9, for like eight straight starts.
This isn't about us hating. If you would have told me at the end of last year that Sonnanstine was going to lose command of the strike zone, Scott Kazmir was going to lose velocity and movement and Shields pitching worse this year than last,...
I would have called you insane. This discussion doesn’t come up if Joyce is in the majors crushing from the start, or if our starting pitching doesn’t collapse like a house of cards. This is why I hate the discussion. I guarantee you if he stayed here, it wouldn’t have made a lick of difference. The Rays would still be 3 games under .500 and fighting to stay out of last. He wasn’t going to get better here.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
It's not about the trade
At least not for me. I agree with the trade, but I was also one that thought Ejax>Sonny.
I had to hear crap all year of how Ejax sucks and Sonny is better. It’s just nice to get some justification. Thats all.
I can’t agree with your last point thought.
Free Ray Durham!
It's important to note that walk rates across the league are up a quarter of a walk per nine.
So an increase is expected, although that doesn’t cover the entire increase, obviously.
.
K/9 BB/9 HR/9
2007 6.67 3.33 1.03
2008 6.83 3.39 1.01
2009 6.92 3.64 1.03
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Is he really having that much bad luck?
His LD% is up over 4% and his FB% is down 5%.
His IFFB% is down 7.
He is walking more, striking out less, and getting less swinging strikes.
I don’t see much hope in these numbers.
If he has another rough outing tonight should he be sent down to AAA?
Free Ray Durham!
I think it would stand to reason
that he’s being hit harder (based on what you referenced). This seems to point towards bad things, unless he can rediscover what made him an 87 mph throwing genius last year
.370 BABIP.
21% LD is an increase in his past, but Kazmir had a ~20.5% LD rate last year and his BABIP was ridiculously .275.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand that his BABIP will most likely regress
but with these rates will he be a good pitcher when they do or will he be just “less” bad.
Free Ray Durham!
His strand rate will regress from 58% as well.
Meaning less runs will be scoring in part because less hits will be occurring. That means his ERA is going to drop. How low? ZiPS has him sub-4.6 the rest of the season.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Your first three numbers are decent signs of luck over 10 starts.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I believe Tango is the one who said it takes almost 3,000 balls in play against pitchers before R=.5
And at that point you regress that pitchers BABIP with his team’s BABIP. Do you know what I’m talking about, or should I Google it?
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I found the reference article I was looking for...
http://statspeak.net/2008/01/on-the-reliability-of-pitching-stats.html
And the comment.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/r50_at_bip_1500_for_babip/
PizzaCutter gives these results:
r=.174, BIP=250 … my equation says: .143
r=.253, BIP=500 … my equation says: .250
r=.696, BIP=3750 … my equation says: .714
r=.742, BIP=4000 … my equation says: .727
I’m happy saying that Pizza’s correlation equation would give us
r=BIP/(BIP+1500)
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
180 BIP versus Sonny this year.
So you have to regress quite a bit moving forward.
ZiPS has him at .304 from here on out.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Rays team BABIP against is .307.
I just ran the numbers, got .313 using .9 team/.1 Sonny. I got the .9/.1 numbers from 180/1680, which equals .107.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, and Pizza kindly shows the number of BFP that are equally telling for each stat:
- Ground balls / Ball in play – less than 50 BF
- Line drives – less than 50 BF
- Fly balls – less than 50 BF
- Pop ups – 325 BF
- HR/FB – never made it to .70, at 750 BF, it had a split half of .208
GB/FB rate evens out relatively quickly, although at this many BFPs, it probably gets regressed at least 75%.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
His Line Drive % was 21.6% in April and is down to 18.6% in May
GB% up 8.6% month over month and FB% is down 5.6%
I think there was a post
not too long ago that discussed his different arm angles, or lack thereof. We all know he doesn’t throw hard, but if he can’t hit his spots (2008) or switch speeds effectively (due to falling behind in count), it’s nothing more than batting practice.
Surprised to see the curve getting thrown more, if he is indeed behind in counts mroe
His release point has changed.
I think that’s what you’re referencing. If it’s unintentional it could be an injury, if it’s intentional, then it begs the question; why?
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Could be a million different things.
Change in off-season work-out.
Injury
Hickey
Age
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
How amusing would it be if Sonnanstine's prime capped last year?
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
It would kinda surprise me.
Pitchers who aren’t “stuff” guys and rely on getting contact outs generally last longer but have to adapt year-to-year.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Is this true?
I thought the two primary types of pitchers that age well are groundballers and strikeout pitchers.
You left out one - lightspeed
which is when Sonny throws BP to opposing batters. This is the speed with which it leaves the bat
To me, it seems like Sonny is trying too hard and thinking too much.
Throwing the cutter more and curve more tells me that he has lost some faith in getting GBs and FBs on his more important pitches (FB and CH)
He’s switched from showing FB and CH and finishing with CU and SL to showing the CU and SL and trying to finish with the FB and CH. The second method is much more “hittable” or readable to hitters.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Is it bad that one of my favorite Who songs
Has neither Roger or Keith?
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Nah.
I like when Pete sings, but it really could have used Keith’s drumming. It’s a good song, but it’s very…. 80s.
Yeah.
Case-in-point: Empty Glass with John and Kieth vs. Empty Glass w/o John and Kieth.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I mocked the idea of an improved change-up.
But I’m a bit curious as to why he’s stopped throwing one all together. The cutter/fastball thing, I don’t know. Maybe he really is overusing his cutter and guys are sitting on it.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
He hasn't really adapted to how hitters are hitting against him yet.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Guys aren't chasing him out of the zone anymore.
Is the new curve movement to blame? The new release point?
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably both.
A change in release-point is not the greatest of signs. It’s also VERY hard to fix.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Hate to say it
because I have been reading this sight for awhile now and agreed with all the reasoning of trading E-jax but it kills me to see him pitching so well and read Huff say that he has top 5 stuff in the league.
Since I was the one to bring in E-Jax (I know sorry) I am currious what his numbers are predicting for the rest of the year. Is he going to keep this up or has luck been on his side? I really hope it is luck because I cry a little inside when I see that he dominated.
It's the Garza trade in reverse
to a degree
Great stuff and potential, but limited success
Not as bad as the Garza one, though.
Garza was younger with less MLB experience and good minor league stats.
Edwin had more MLB experience with worse results.
Garza deal was done because we needed a SP
So a year removed, we had too many?
Garza deal was done because we saw the chance to nab a cheap above average starter and a defensive studhound at short.
And we didn’t think Delmon would reach his potential.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
It's possible.
It’s also possible that the pitching coach in DET figured something out and something clicked.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Apparently, Edwin has done three things to his stuff.
1. Found a new slider.
2. Dumped the change-up.
3. Found a curveball.
Perhaps he simply doesn’t have the ability to get a feel for the change, but his innate ability to spin the ball was underutilized?
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
All of the above sounds pitching-coach oriented.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Difference in pitching strategy.
It’s hard to explain but you could tell he just didn’t fit.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
We lost Butcher because he went back to the Angels.
Not because of a difference in philosophy.
Tools Whore
I should have prefaced that with a IMO.
I didn’t like him.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
This isn't Rays related persay.
But I’ve always wondered; who teaches the pitcher a new pitch? Darryl Kile learned how to throw his change-up by just goofing around with a baseball in the minor leagues and had to convince his manager to let him throw it. Does Shields try and teach Kazmir his change, or does Hickey work with him on the grip/release/etc.?
I feel like we don’t know a ton about that.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Well Hickey's job most certainly isn't to be the guy who runs out to the mound first while the bullpen warms up.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
No, and I'm not implying he's not doing anything behind the scenes.
I’m sure he works on stuff like gameplans, repeatable mechanics, etc. I just wonder if he tries to teach pitchers new pitches, new grips, whatever.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Was it him that was trying to get Kaz to stand on the other side of the rubber, or was that Butcher?
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
That doesn't sound like trying to make a change to his mechanics.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
For the most part, it's the pitching coach.
Grip, release, arm slot, push-off, is all done by Hickey and other PCs. Usually it takes somebody to say “Batters are really keying off of your curve and your arm-slot would probably better serve a slider.” before you try it.
I never threw anything other than a 2-seam, 4-seam, change, and slider until later on when my personal pitching coach told me that I had good horizontal movement but not enough vertical. That’s when we started working on a curve. Gradually.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Now see, this is the reasoning I would use for this trade. If he's really pitching better, it's not because he's reaching his potential finally, it's because he's being taught to do something different.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
See, that's the thing too.
If you look at his raw stats, he finally unlocked the box.
If you look at his pitch usage and breaks, he got a new box.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, but neither of these were predictable.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
If you have good scouts and a good pitching coach they are predictable
This is precisely the job of the these people
..♫And that's the way you do it♫...
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
I would put my money on the difference with EJax being
a change in philosophy. He was an outfielder before he was a pitcher. Therefore he may finally be communicating with someone who is teaching him how to PITCH as opposed to just throw. Because as an outfielder, he wouldn’t know how to pitch.
There is a huge, intangible difference between throwing and pitching.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
The majors is different than High School.
You can get away with just throwing and not pitching in HS.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
A quick look.
His BABIP will regress. His HR/FB% will regress, and I would guess his LD% regresses some as well. ZiPS has him around 4.3 FIP for the rest of the year. That’s probably about right, maybe a tick high/low depending on your feelings about his new found control and whiffs.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Friedman has an insane amount of job security.
1. The general public is too dumb to realize he controls the roster, not Maddon.
2. The informed public loves the guy because they realize how good he is at this game.
3. The organization loves the guy because they realize how good he is at this game.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Once people make the connection that he's Jewish and Edwin was German, that'll change.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
You must've missed the guy who used to run around making Jewish jokes non-stop about Friedman/Silverman/Sternberg.
His name was Mick.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Where would I have seen him at?
I probably would have wanted to kick his ass.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
Oh, so it was online? In that case, I would have lol'd.
I thought you meant like running around the owner’s box doing it.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
You said 'run around'. I thought you meant literally. Computer people don't run.
"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."
Is a Minor League Pitching Coach more important than a Major League one?
Most development occurs on the farm.
To elaborate.
The minors is all about mechanics and good replication. In the majors it’s more about fine-tuning and results.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Next question
Why don’t teams recognize this and put their highest paid and best minded positional coaches on the farm?
When it involves riding in buses instead of team planes and playing in front of a few hundred instead of a couple of ten thousands
I might disagree.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
It depends on how big a difference the coach makes
If it is very important in the minors, maybe it should be a glorified position. Maybe there should be an organizational pitching coach who travels by plane and works with each ballclub when they are at home. Club pitching coaches could mimic what the big dog preaches on his visits. Just seems like if its important, the currently accepted structure could be improved upon. Notoriety shoudl not stand in the way of forward thinking management. If there is little relative value between minds, it is a moot point.
Dick Bosman used to be the minor league pitching coordinator and he worked with guys in ST.
Heck, he filled in as the Rays PC in 2007 when Hickey had his eye incident. I think he’s a pitching coach on a team now, but if not, I assume one of his duties is to help work with the lower level guys in instructs/extended spring.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
There are pitching coaches who go from team to team working on mechanics.
The guy I worked with pitched in the Majors and worked with the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Devil Rays (at the time) during spring training as well as individuals.
Specifically Roy Halladay and David Cone are two I remember.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
My guess would be that FOs assume that all mechanical related problems
would be second nature and no problem by the time they reach AAA.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
There aren't enough good coaches?
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I think they kinda do
but it would kind of be weird to start in the majors and move “up” to AAA.
No one would want to
Free Ray Durham!
maybe draysbay has forgotten who the opponent is:
granted this article is from last year, but old habits die hard
“May 9: With an 8.82 ERA and a ridiculous two baserunners allowed for every inning pitched this season, Steve Trachsel may well be baseball’s worst pitcher. In the two starts leading up to his May 9 outing against the Royals, Trachsel had posted an ERA of 15.00, failing to pitch more than three innings in either start. But Kansas City’s largesse allowed Trachsel to put up his most impressive outing of the season: 5 1/3 innings, two runs allowed and a season-high 10 ground-ball outs.”
if you are horrible,
and people point out that you are in fact horrible, it’s not called scapegoating, it’s called telling it like it is…
come on guy!!
this isn’t trolling! i’m here all the time, you just say something like that, you gotta expect a response.
OT: From the Times
Kazmir said a possible root of his bad habits is that after he worked his way back in May 2008 from a left elbow strain, he stopped doing as much long-toss because he felt discomfort.
“It wasn’t me stretching my arm out,” Kazmir said. “It wasn’t keeping it in shape. It was me getting loose and then shutting it down. What happened because of that, I was cutting everything off; I started just developing bad habits. And now with me throwing long toss almost every day, I’m getting that extension.”
When asked if there could be a minor-league rehab assignment, Kazmir said, “That’s what I’m trying to avoid; that’s why I’m trying to keep my arm strength up, so I don’t have to build back up. It’s something that if I come back in 10-15 days, that I feel I won’t need that to stay on track.”
That makes too much sense.
Not stretching older/unused muscle = low velocity.
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Jun 2, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure sounds promising.
Sounds like something that you could think is solved by bullpen sessions, but until you are at 100% effort on the mound the problem doesnt really present itself.
MMMM
I still don’t like FIP as a current measure of performance, more as a predictive measure. Sure, it means he’ll probably regress, but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s sucked so far this year.
Not sure where I can get his tRAs though.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
So I think the world is going to end sometime over the dates of Aug 28-31
Joyce takes Edwin yard, but strikes out twice and brains explode worldwide.
Rays Win!
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