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Hitter protection

 

So a few months ago, in a thread about Evans 2009 projections, I challenged the opinion that hitter protection did not exist. I obviously was belittled and acted as if my opnion did not count.

http://www.draysbay.com/2008/12/23/700420/community-projections-evan

"because lineup "protection" isn't a factor. It's a myth.

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 23, 2008 11:29 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs "

"No, they aren't.

Read a damn book.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 23, 2008 11:26 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs "

Now the reason I am bringing this thread up again is due to me hearing Draysbay,Tommy and RJ getting some love on Duemigs show over the last few days. So I took the time to call into Duemigs show today and inform him of your opinion that hitter protection is a myth.

Duemig has watched baseball for 40+ years, so I will love to see you guys tell him how he needs to "read a damn book" cause he doesn't agree with your opinion.  Will be very hard to tell him that when you aren't hiding behind a computer.

I will not respond to any of the insults i am sure to come my way, so have fun but remember, baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator.

Selgy



 

 

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

Comment 147 comments  |  10 recs  | 

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Oh you know I rec'd this

In other news, I hear the Bucs are getting sold

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 2, 2009 10:02 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Perhaps we should shut the site down.

Because nothing we learn is going to top 40 years of watching baseball.

Shut down the hospitals and labs, let the old people tell you about the human body. Shut down the schools, let’s gather around the oldest man in the village tell us about history and the oldest woman teach us literature. Shut everything new out, the only thing that matters is watching experience.

It’s funny, because I’m pretty sure BobR is the smartest Rays fan around. He’s in his 50s or 60s, has seen more baseball than most of us, and he never uses his experience in watching the game as a reason for his opinion or ideas being more worthy. He uses facts and logic. Imagine that.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 10:11 PM EDT reply actions  

I wanted to bring up his Sonny theory pre-game but didn't want to jinx it.

It looks like the theory strikes again. I wish I could find it in the archives, but it always seems to ring true, at least to me. Do you remember what I am talking about where he mentioned that out of 5 starts (I’m paraphrasing) that he would have a 1 star, 2 star, 3 star, 4 star, and a 5 star performance. It makes him hard to write off because just when you think the 1 and 2 star stars are indicative of his nature he comes out and has a 4 or 5 star performance. Bob if you read this, I’d love to hear you re-hash this idea.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 2, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I found this.

http://www.draysbay.com/2007/9/16/145737/292#4176000

I really think the last 5 games are what we can expect from Sonnanstine in the future. He will have games that he gets bombed, but he will recover and for a #4 or 5 starter be excellent. For every terrible outing, there will be one excellent one and 2 or 3 solid ones. The man is a pitcher.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

And this.

http://www.draysbay.com/2008/7/6/565701/performance-over-prospect#7208286

Again, I am not completely confident he will work out as I hope, but I suspect he will. I am still convinced he will get bombed periodically, and I think he will about as often throw a gem while in most other games he should be able to keep the Rays competitive. Perhaps out of every 10 starts, 2 short outings giving up 4 or more runs, 2 seven+ inning starts giving up 0-2 runs and the other 6 in the 5-7 inning range giving up 3-4 runs.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also.

Fire Andrew Friedman and replace him with Pat Gillick immediately.

The games aren’t played on a calculator, Wall Street boy.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 10:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Longevity!

baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator

by RATW on Jun 2, 2009 10:26 PM EDT reply actions  

I challenged the opinion that hitter protection did not exist. I obviously was belittled and acted as if my opnion did not count.

And yet knowing that your opinion doesn’t count, you still come back to post here.

So I took the time to call into Duemigs show today and inform him of your opinion that hitter protection is a myth.

Get a life.

Duemig has watched baseball for 40+ years

Then let him post here.

Will be very hard to tell him that when you aren’t hiding behind a computer.

Yes, because sports talk radio is clearly exclusive to “real men”.

I will not respond to any of the insults i am sure to come my way

Wow, clearly as the instigator of this thread you’ve achieved the high ground. My regards.

baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator

Profound quote.

Listen, I don’t know how you were treated. I really don’t care, actually, it’s not my problem. But whatever the circumstances were before, and regardless of whomever was wrong, you coming back to troll doesn’t help. You’re obviously looking to get a rise out of people, and there is no real constructive point to your remarks. Using Steve Duemig as a surrogate to “get back” at people here is stupid and belies your lack of maturity.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 2, 2009 10:55 PM EDT reply actions   2 recs

Why yes, yes I was.

Right by the escalator on the third base food court. I was raising money for an FBLA trip. He should have bought some delicious Centerplate concessions.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 2, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did he at least buy something?

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 2, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bad directions to my concession stand?

On a side note, working at the Trop is awesome. Especially for Tuesday evening Royals games.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 2, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why?

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jun 2, 2009 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, I guess part of it is because I was working with people I know and like. Even accounting for that, though, the job is really easy but it’s not boring. Dealing with people is sort of interesting, and there’s always something to do. Besides, you get free drinks and a free meal, and usually you get to leave after the seventh and watch the rest of the game.

Basically, it’s an enjoyable way to make money. We got 10% of our sales, in addition to any tips, and we did surprisingly decent business.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 2, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah I volunteer with the Lightning

I’m done after 2nd intermission so I get the 3rd period. I usually get a free 10 dollar meal thing. It’s easy.

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jun 2, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I mean, really

If I weren’t working the game, I’d be watching it on TV at home. And given that there are two flat screen TVs right in front of the concession stand, I’m really not missing anything.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 2, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah it's fun.

With the Lightning I have also run into a couple players like Vinny, St Louis. and Ovechkin.

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jun 2, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

In all seriousness

What kind of trolls still listen to AM radio?

by putupyourDUKES on Jun 2, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

.
I will not respond to any of the insults i am sure to come my way

Will be very hard to tell him that when you aren’t hiding behind a computer.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2009 11:30 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Score one for Selgy

I hope you didn’t ban him for this.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jun 3, 2009 12:17 AM EDT reply actions  

The fuck?

I don’t want this masterpiece deleted.

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jun 3, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, the only way to ensure that IS to ban him.

He’s not banned ATM. Something to think about.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 3, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I shall leave this tab open.

If it’s deleted, I’ll screencap or save the webpage.

No longer is retarded shit getting deleted for good on my watch.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 3, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why would they?

I’m absolutely positive there’s more treasure where this came from. You may just have to be patient.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 3, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

He could probably make some fairly positive contributions as well

Selgy’s not a complete dolt. Still, all I can think about when I see his name is that damn fake mustache.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jun 3, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think he's stupid, I just think he's misguided and naive.

And that’s not necessarily a function of his opinions, but rather how he chooses to express and defend them.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 3, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why would I ban him for this?

He’s talked shit about me on message boards before. Call me a douchebag dictator all you want, I don’t ban just because people disagree with me.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 3, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

And "score one"?

Duemig called me a numbers genius today, if Selgy thinks he knows so much, why doesn’t he buy into his opinion of my ability?

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 3, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's some poster from the old RaysBB boards.

In between 9/11 conspiracy theory posts, he talks about baseball.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 3, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

The logic in the post in really ass-backwards

Not too mention incredibly weak to post but refuse to address any of the comments. Guys seems like a tool.

by RaysTheRoof on Jun 3, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm as lost as you are.

I do love the, “I’m not replying to criticism,” line though. I should use that on my posts instead of trying to reply to most comments.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 3, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Those posts were amazing

Made me use my copy of the 9/11 report for toilet paper.

Percival saw Dr. Koko Eaton's last name and mistook it for his prescribed treatment.

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 3, 2009 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

"Duemig called me a numbers genius today"

A fat, bloated crackwhore hooker told me she’d give me a discount. Doesn’t mean I’m going to get a hardon.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 3, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just assumed that because he didn't have any further responses

he got banned. Then I read the whole damn post and saw the part where he said he wouldn’t respond.

And you’re not the one I’d worry about the ban.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jun 3, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

At least I got a new sig out of this

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 3, 2009 1:36 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't much care for it.

baseball is played on a calculator in your grandmother's basement, not on the field

by RATW on Jun 3, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Speaking of the actual topic

Does hitter protection impact the type of pitches thrown? Personally I do think hitter protection actually matters in specific situations. I don’t think a pairing of Kapler/Dillon would protect each other. That would have obvious no impact. But logically it would seem a pairing of Longo/Kapler would see a bit different set of pitches than Longo/Pena.

by matthan on Jun 3, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions  

There's probably SOME influence

It’s silly to say that protection doesn’t exist at all. Obviously it does, or we wouldn’t hear about managers making moves based on who’s next up in the lineup. It’s quite possible that guys try to nibble more if a hitter is ‘unprotected’ and there’s someone ahead of them on base. The issue is that it’s just not prevalent enough for it to make much of a difference. Pretty much every study on the issue has shown that there’s no statistically significant correlation between a batter’s overall performance and the performance of the guys who are next to him in the lineup. Basically, when someone is protected, they might see more pitches on the plate, but the corresponding reduction in walk rate tends to be enough to offset any improvement by seeing ‘better’ pitches.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 3, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pretty much

Mostly BB and hits. Higher chance of walking when unprotected, higher chance of hitting when protected, but since BBs increase more relative to hits, it balances out. In terms of lineup effects, I’m not sure if it makes a difference in total runs scored, simply because a walk is going to be less valuable when the next few hitters after a player really suck.

What I haven’t seen is a study to see how this effects certain types of hitters. For example, I suspect there might be statistically significant differences for three true outcomes hitters, or for guys who are known to crush fastballs, but the sample sizes probably aren’t large enough (or consistent enough) to put together a meaningful study on that.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 3, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think you hit the nail on the head

This is exactly what I am wondering. I do not doubt that for the entire population of MLB hitters that protection is relatively meaningless. I am more interested in looking at certain skillsets, or in my previous post certain types of players back to back and how performance is then impacted.

It is most valuable for us to be able with more certainly look at a certain player with skill set X and another with skill set Y and determine how line up ordering will impact their production. Having data for the entire population is nice, but it doesn’t totally solve the question.

by matthan on Jun 3, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would be interested in that as well

Its always useful to drill down further when you can. Thats exactly the mindset behind the field of sabermetrics. Always be testing, alwyas be challenging for flaws in the tests. Don’t be satisfied with present measures, but don’t blindly disregard them either. If you are going to contest them, do so with better evidence.

by FreeZorilla on Jun 3, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here's one you can take back to dueming.

Chris Thomas was a drunk and a degenerate that put people’s lives in danger on a daily basis.

DUI=Scum of the earth.

by putupyourDUKES on Jun 3, 2009 4:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Since the entry of this Fanpost was dumb anyway....

I’d like to ask a dumb (maybe not dumb) question to everyone here: how did you become a Devil Rays fan?

Follow up: What did you do for baseball rooting before becoming a fan of this franchise that I envy so much?

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.

by baetown415 on Jun 5, 2009 3:23 AM EDT reply actions  

Ditto, swap 'Braves' with 'Indians' though.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 5, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Moved to Orlando for school in summer 2001 went to some games and got hooked

Formerly a Yanks fan since you’re born into that in my family.

Rays Win!

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 5, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

I grew up like 10 minutes from the Trop.

I was in 2nd grade during their inaugural season. I didn’t really care about baseball before that.

Selgy

by mittens on Jun 5, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Whatever

You were sperm during the inaugural season

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 5, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cubs because of TV/Dad being from Chicago

98 because they became my home team.

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jun 5, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Was a Marlins fan

Raised in the Tampa area though. When I moved to New York, I stayed a Tampa Bay fan because it always pissed me off to see so many Yankees fans at the Devil Rays games, I decided I’d be the lone Tampa Bay fan in Yankeeland.

Before the Marlins, I didn’t really follow baseball much. Didn’t have cable, so when they formed it was the first time I had regular access to a single team.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 5, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Reds Fan

I grew up in central Ohio and my early memories were the later years of the Big Red Machine… then the Tom Seaver era… going to the game after Pete hit 4192.. The Eric Davis years were next. I didn’t go to a whole lot of games. We were about a 2 hour drive away from the stadium, and would only make a few a year. The usual visit to Kings Island when we did made it even more special. But I listened to Marty and Joe call the game on the radio almost every night.. My first year away from home, during my freshman year in college in South Carolina, they swept the World Series. It was the pinnacle of my sports life up to that moment.

I moved to the Tampa Bay area in the fall of 2001 and have had a new favorite team since.

by RalphieTheRay on Jun 5, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

New York Yankees

for 55 years, but
1. I am always intrigued by new teams and tend to follow them even if not exactly a fan.

2. My son moved to St. Petersburg in the early 1990s so my interest in the (Devil) Rays was at a different level.

3. I started posting on the St. Pete Times forum and my interest in the team grew, especially as I was impressed by the quality of many of the contributors.

4. I moved here in 2006, just in time to reinvigorate my interest as the disappointing Naimoli regime ended and the Friedman regime began. I was amazed at the immediate differences and got hooked. Arguing that Friedman, Maddon and company were doing things exactly right while some could only see the poor records those first two years intensified my passion for the team.

by bobr on Jun 6, 2009 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just admit it, you're a bandwagon jumper.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 9, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

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