B.J. Upton Starring as The Two-Armed Man

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 21, 2009 9:00 PM EDT

It's been a long, long time coming, but we may finally have a healthy B.J. Upton in the lineup. For reasons beyond my explanation, the human mind sometimes poisons the logic center. Creating hysteria, paranoia, and irrationalities over any length of time. What's the noise in the middle of the night? Must be a murderer. That pain in your mind is a stroke and that taste in your water is arsenic. Upton's prolonged slump gave coal to the flames on whether Upton would be alright at any point this season.

As such, Upton's recent hot streak has silenced those cancerous thoughts. Entering today, Upton was hitting .300/.364/.457 in about 80 June plate appearances. Having known what Upton did today, those numbers will be more robust come the morning. Upton's BABIP is regressing like projected. Upton's strikeout rate continues to plummet; he's around 24% for the month of June while his walk rate is buoying shy of 9%.

I would love to claim this is the magic of statistical principle alone, but I don't think that's the case. Upton's power is awakening; most likely due to regained strength from the rehab and daily grind. Consider that even before today's game Upton had recorded seven extra base hits in June. In April/May combined Upton recorded 11. His bomb off Bobby Parnell continues another recent trend in that Upton's home runs have been longer as of late. I'm sure Hit Tracker will post the data on the new homer sometime in the next day, but check out the distances and dates associated with Upton's other homeruns:

6/16: 425 true distance

6/4: 414 true distance

5/16: 330 true distance

5/15: 392 true distance

While Upton has pulled each pop into the left field seats, his ability to go into right field is showing up more often. Today Upton turned on a 96 MPH fastball that was located up and in. Two months ago he fouls that off if contact is even made. Upton turned around on that fastball just like he's turning around on this season.

B.J.'s back. Tell your brain.

Tweet Comment 47 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

When are the mets going to

realize bobby parnell and sean green suck donkey kong?

We need Robots....The time is now Bud, Stern, and Goodell.
Seriously, Officiating Sucks in this Country

by 4QB on Jun 21, 2009 9:12 PM EDT reply actions

Parnell looked like he had really good stuff

He was just leaving those fastballs out over the plate.

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 21, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

He has issues

We need Robots....The time is now Bud, Stern, and Goodell.
Seriously, Officiating Sucks in this Country

by 4QB on Jun 21, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions

OK

I’ll give you that. Not quite donkey kong though. Well, maybe Sean Green.

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 21, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I actually think Green's better than Parnell

He’s basically Parnell with 60+% GB, which is insane. Parnell throws hard, but his slider sucks and his location is no great shakes either.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jun 22, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions

I didn't think Green could replicate that GB% again, but he has.

Impressive.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Duh

Green throws a bunch of sinkers and 2 seamers combined with a slider equals GB guy, but this guy is very hittable for a GBaller

We need Robots....The time is now Bud, Stern, and Goodell.
Seriously, Officiating Sucks in this Country

by 4QB on Jun 22, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry I couldn't assume you were capable of that analysis after

bobby parnell and sean green suck donkey kong

I’m not sure how “hittable” he is exactly. Being a GB pitcher, he gives up very few line drives. Keep in mind, he went from a Betancourt/Lopez infield to a Cora/Castillo infield, so it’s not entirely his fault.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jun 22, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

It means he doesn't throw hard.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, and even if HitFx proves he doesn't get hit hard, it's easy to aim off him.

/Sonnanstine haters

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not where you start...

It’s where you finish.

Put Tampa Bay back on our road uniforms!!

by joedobr on Jun 21, 2009 9:24 PM EDT reply actions

I love when RJ writes about Upton

He gets so fired up. Good stuff.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 21, 2009 9:32 PM EDT reply actions

RJ stands for Rossman Junior. his dad was the original Rossman.

by walkoffwalk on Jun 21, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions

oh i thought it was rimjob

ha ha ha

Selgy

by mittens on Jun 21, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions

what what

by walkoffwalk on Jun 21, 2009 9:33 PM EDT reply actions

GOTCHA BITCH

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Jun 21, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

that shirt is so sweeet

by walkoffwalk on Jun 21, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I would have to say. Whoever got this photo is brilliant

and BFFs with BeeJesus

"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey

by Gone Phishing on Jun 21, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Twitter

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jun 21, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

but is that a 'Nats hat?

by walkoffwalk on Jun 21, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 21, 2009 9:41 PM EDT reply actions

stop saying that.

by walkoffwalk on Jun 21, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 21, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions

bj turned on a 96mph fastball? look-out AL pitchers.

by walkoffwalk on Jun 21, 2009 9:48 PM EDT reply actions

oh my god i don't have internet i want to kill myself

Selgy

by mittens on Jun 21, 2009 9:51 PM EDT reply actions

apparently that's the longest homerun ever hit in citi field.

http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090621&content_id=5455392&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=tb

gary cohen (mets pbp guy) says that in the video.

by walkoffwalk on Jun 21, 2009 9:52 PM EDT reply actions

that thing hit a plane and forced it to land in the Hudson

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Jun 21, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions

BIG SHOT

Ya..that was one Hell of a bomb B.J got ahold of today..I hope he is back..we sure need him.

by electriclott on Jun 21, 2009 9:56 PM EDT reply actions

Kapler v. Lefties this season? Sexy time.

306/.392/.677/1.069

by walkoffwalk on Jun 21, 2009 10:19 PM EDT reply actions

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 21, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions

i actually wouldn't be opposed to that.

by walkoffwalk on Jun 21, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions

It has nothing to do with statistical principles

It has everything to do with mechanics and health.

BJ wasn’t getting truly unlucky before. That version of BJ was just a bad hitter. Obviously not his fault since he wasn’t healthy. Thank god he is back to what he can and should be.

Crawford is the guy that is regressing back towards who he should be.

by matthan on Jun 21, 2009 10:24 PM EDT reply actions

Crawford is a good player who can run fast

but BJ is on another level both offensively and defensively when he’s playing up to his potential. There’s no real comparison between the two. We won’t ever see Carl become the perennial 30/30 Club threat he was sometimes projected to be, but I predict that BJ will have more than a few seasons of 30/30 in the near future.

by Zach Attack on Jun 21, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I was talking about analyzing them statistically

BJ playing better isn’t because his numbers are normalizing. He is playing better because he is now healthy. These previous numbers aren’t an outlier when we look at BJ going forward. They should be thrown out totally. Injured performance cannot help predict uninjured performance.

CC on the other hand was playing a bit over his head. It was an outlier.

by matthan on Jun 21, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Part of it was his numbers stabilizing.

He was hitting liners at people. That wasn’t an injury thing.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 21, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Seeing him finally turn on a 96MPH heater is encouraging.

Frankly though, I’ve already seen this song and dance twice. I’m going to wait a week before I jump back on the Upton train.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 21, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions

*Wait for more then a weeks worth of good performance.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 21, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah the sample size of good performance (hitting) is really small

The sample size of poor hitting ability is getting pretty large and is real recent. With his injury it makes it pretty tough to figure out what we should really expect out of BJ

by matthan on Jun 22, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions

It's been more than a week, but that's fair.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 21, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah he was a bit unlucky even then

I was just saying that the change in his productivity isn’t a matter of line drives and grounders turning into hits instead of outs and homeruns eeking over the fence instead of into someones glove. His numbers are improving because he is in fact hitting better.

by matthan on Jun 21, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Obviously, and I implied that.

It’s like 70/30 health/regression. Maybe 80/20.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 21, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know who's happier tonite

BJ or RJ?

by Raymondo on Jun 21, 2009 10:36 PM EDT reply actions

...RJ...obviously

Swav or Die
For the lulz

by SRQman on Jun 21, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions

You know how this works. BJ has a good game, RJ makes this face:

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 21, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions

All throughout his slump, I kept waiting for him to get back to form

Because BJ is just such an incredible talent. I think he has the potential to become an elite-level centerfielder like Sizemore, Hunter and Beltran. He’s got it all: SB’s, Gold Glove defense, tremendous power (as we saw today), a smooth and natural swing, and the ability to not jump at junk pitches. I have no doubt that his early slump was due to the labrum not being healed enough. What’s making this better is that he’s got to be more ferocious about getting his numbers back up to speed, so he’s a man on a mission. We can only look forward to this next homestand to see if this shit continues.

by Zach Attack on Jun 21, 2009 10:49 PM EDT reply actions