Joe Maddon May Have Read The Book
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 21, 2009 10:45 PM EDT
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PrintJoe Maddon's smart moves never receive a lot of attention. For the second Sunday in a row, Maddon impressed me with this foresight and decision making.
Last week, the Rays tied the game in the bottom of the sixth. In the seventh, Randy Choate entered to face Nick Johnson with Anderson Hernandez on first base with one out. A passed ball sent Hernandez scampering to second and a grounder to second left Hernandez at third with two outs and a right-handed Ryan Zimmerman at the plate. Maddon called for the intentional walk and set up a lefty/lefty match-up. Choate would win the duel, but even if he didn't, the decision was sound. Maddon turned the odds in his favor by simply placing an extra runner on base without advancing the lead runner.
The Nationals run expectancy sprung from 0.36 to 0.50 after the walk. That's it. 0.14 runs.
Today, Maddon pinch hit for Jeff Niemann in the top of the fifth. Niemann's pitching was erratic and frankly a bit underwhelming, the Rays trailed by two, and the first two batters had reached. Even with the pinch hitter penalty implemented, letting Willy Aybar bat is going to end in a better result than Niemann trying to bunt or, forbid, swinging away. A bunt lowered run expectations by more than a half of a run. Did Maddon make the right call going to his pen that early? Probably. Unless the Rays are playing a pick-up game tomorrow, there was no reason to save anyone.
Overly good or bad results can skew perspectives, so I'll refrain from calling this the best run of Maddon managing we've experienced this season, but it's been very, very good.
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Choate didn't walk Nick Johnson.
He walked Zimmerman, who is the Nats best hitter. Zimmerman versus any right-handed reliever is a worse match-up for the Rays than Dunn versus Choate.
And 0.14 runs is marginal.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 21, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I also applauded his decision to pinch hit for Niemann
Because that was one of the ugliest two-run outings I’ve ever seen one of our starters throw. We ended up giving up some more, but, in retrospect, Willy’s pinch hit AB was very key and it was the right move. That turned into a four-run inning, right? We won by four runs.
Now if we could just get him to stop letting runners try to steal third base all the time…
I think this is more of a coincidence than Maddon doing this based on it being the right statistical move
Neimann was just sucking. I have little doubt most managers would have taken him out. I guess for me it was just obvious. A very good run scoring opportunity with a pitcher who has thrown more balls than strikes…
I think there was another decision that was more up in the air. That decision was taking out Cormier for Nelson. I thought that was a bad move. Cormier has pitched better to begin with plus the pitcher was up first the next inning. Switching pitchers there forces you to pitch quite a few members of the pen.
Of course we need to forget the actual results of both Aybar and Cormier situations as that could bias our thoughts.
Eh, Nelson has been fine lately
His last HR was May 27th. I guess he was due?
Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 21, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Well we shouldn't look at it from the results based perspective
If we do then obviously it was a bad move. I just think Cormier is a better pitcher right now, and with the pitchers spot up next I thought he definitely should have stayed in. Cormier himself could have given up a bomb, but I think the chances of something bad happening was less with him on the hill.
I agree with you there, he was more likely to keep ball in park.
Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Jun 22, 2009 3:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I doubt it
Having watched NL ball for years before the Rays were in existence, I can’t remember many times (if at all) when the pitcher got pulled for a pinch hitter in the 4th and had given up less than 5 runs. 99% of the time, the manager will give the pitcher the opportunity to ‘try and pitch for the win’, since you can’t earn a win until you get to 5 innings.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I've seen it quite a few times
And your scenario isn’t what happened. It was top of the 5th, not the 4th. And also the Rays were losing so the qualifying for a win factor didn’t apply. Also Jeff was at like 80 pitches or so, so it isn’t like he had a very low pitch count.
I loved the Niemann move.
Even disregarding Niemann’s performance in the game. He’s not a stud, probably around league-average or a bit worse. The Rays are down two, with runners on base. Great opportunity to score. Most of the guys in the bullpen would allow fewer runs than Niemann going forward. It’s a no-brainer.
In The Book, the authors advocate that 4th and 5th starters almost never bat, each relieving the other in their starts in NL parks.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
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