Playoff Odds Update

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2009 2:20 PM EDT

BP (no PECOTA): 55%

BP (PECOTA): 29%

Coolstandings: 47%

Our odds are pretty much equal to a flip of a coin.

Also: PECOTA hates us.

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If by PECOTA hates us, you mean takes into account how good the ALE is...

Until Next Time,
The Sports Chief

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 22, 2009 2:23 PM EDT reply actions

Or, you know, projection systems can't feel emotions.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand how the simulation works and all

But I find it hard to believe that we made up 4 games with 90 some games left only 30% of the time.

by BJ the Bossman on Jun 22, 2009 2:48 PM EDT reply actions

i like our chances right now

JP is being used correctly, and we have Zobrist.

by daveh33 on Jun 22, 2009 2:49 PM EDT reply actions

Why would PECOTA hate us?

Aren’t they big believers in run differential?

by Raymondo on Jun 22, 2009 2:57 PM EDT reply actions

Our run differential is lucky relative to team hypothetical stats

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 22, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

What do you mean by hypothetical stats?

The conversion from individual offensive pieces to runs scored?

If so, BtB’s tackled this using one approach. Look at the second table in the post and compare actual RS to expected RS. Through mid last week, the Rays had scored about 12 run less than “expected”.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/18/913464/btb-power-rankings-through

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jun 22, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

OT:Good or bad

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4278728

by Raymondo on Jun 22, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions

Neutral, probably

They’re keeping his right hand man as the head of the union, so it probably doesn’t make much of a difference.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jun 22, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Eh...hard to say; I don't know anything about his replacement.

But to both him and Sielig’s credit, the existing labor agreement has been pretty beneficial to both sides as of late.

"Where we all wait in earnest with pudding in hand for the Upton comet to sail through the roofed skies, so that we may meet Him."

by kericr on Jun 22, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

They’ve given 10 starts to Davis/Houser at a 5.5+ ERA. They’ve got our best relievers going 35 innings. Evan Longoria is projected to put up a VORP about half of what he did last year. Carlos Pena has already exceeded his home run projections. The list goes on.

They were very conservative in projecting the Rays, and much less conservative projecting the Yankees (Joba, pitch for pitch, projected to be the best pitcher in the AL, for example). This makes sense for a projection system, but with more than a third of the season in the books, the flaws have become more apparent.

by sstamour on Jun 22, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions